NATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1968332427375563256

[chaser1]

The only rotation I see on visible satellite is near 19.9N/47.6W. That's way north of the best track. Models backed way off on strengthening overnight. Hopefully, this is another dud.

Fast forward a couple hours and I'd say around 19N and 48W with what would appear as a WSW vector.

[sasha_B]

The NHC's upgrade is sensible regardless of the poor satellite presentation at the moment. Gabrielle met the convective criteria to be called a tropical cyclone earlier this morning, when the first advisory was issued, and the data now support 35-40kt winds. It'll be interesting to see how it holds together over the next 12-24 hours, though, given the downward trend in intensity guidance (and the especially sharp dropoff in support on the GFS). Good news for Bermuda, less so for those hoping for the Atlantic basin to make a dramatic comeback.

[Sciencerocks]

The main LLC is strong and suggest tropical storm but yeah convection isn't very good. I'd say 91L was more deserving but I believe both are deserving. Should see strengthening as it moves out of the MDR over the next 3-7 days and probably a hurricane north of the windwards.

[MGC]

"Although the system is at best marginally well defined," This from the NHC discussion this morning is the understatement of the season. Why the rush to upgrade? Gabby looks terrible this morning like she just got home from drinking all night. At least there is something marginal to track today........MGC

[aspen]

I think we all owe an apology to Odette ‘21. A new contender for the worst looking Atlantic TC of all time just dropped.

[LarryWx]

I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade.

Followup:

JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.”

But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

[chaser1]

I think we all owe an apology to Odette ‘21. A new contender for the worst looking Atlantic TC of all time just dropped.

Winner of "post of the day"

[ElectricStorm]

Convection isn't anywhere close to the center, I'm also surprised they were so quick to upgrade this one. I'd be interested to hear why this one got classified but a couple of previous invests (like 99L a few weeks ago) didn't when a couple of them seemed to have closed centers and much better convection than Gabrielle does.

I think this will struggle mightily over the next several days but could find better conditions after it begins to recurve. Hurricane is possible if it can survive that long, but we'll see.