ATL: SANDY - Models

[stephen23]

Rock, what do you think the initiation of 30 mb high will do to this model. It Initiates at 984 mb

[ROCK]

Rock, what do you think the initiation of 30 mb high will do to this model. It Initiates at 984 mb

thats doesnt make a hill of beans. ..its down stream that is the driving force of where this will go...yes I am a EURO hugger..

[stephen23]

Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more

[ROCK]

Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more

FL is going to get a good lashing of TS force winds I am sure....the EURO has closest approach at 72hrs at 974MB....windfiled will be huge...

take a look at this map....potentially cat 4 all the way up to Carolinas

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[TexasF6]

That ^^^ signifies a huge disturbance in the force....I am officially 'worried.' Wow...and wow again....back to sleep I go! Be safe everyone. The Euro seems to be onto the track as well....

[GCANE]

GFS is really cranking the ULL. This looks more like a Fujiwhara interaction as Sandy approaches the NE coast.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

[Cyclenall]

dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Seriously, my jaw is on the floor at this point . That was a keeper for sure. I agree, I have never seen anything like what some of these models are forecasting at the point, absolutely uncharted territory. What really has me drooling is how there is now consistency and some agreement coming on all this!

Didn't know if it will end up a little closer to florida if its stronger and feels the low more

FL is going to get a good lashing of TS force winds I am sure....the EURO has closest approach at 72hrs at 974MB....windfiled will be huge...

take a look at this map....potentially cat 4 all the way up to Carolinas

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

So that's what got your attention, but this isn't going to be fully tropical by the time it gets to the Carolina...at least that's what the models are showing. The incredible bombing it does near there is not tropical deepening. If that's not what you mean then I don't get the "CAT4 all the way up to Carolinas" part.

[Bizzles]

dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

I literally let out a HAH so loud when I saw that hook I scared my cat off the couch and may have woken up my wife...lol

That is nuts...and since I'm in NJ...a bit concerning

[GCANE]

Much more of a recurve in the GFS ensemble members

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... smodel.gif

[Kingarabian]

Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Much more of a recurve in the GFS ensemble members

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... smodel.gif

Looks like most of the ensembles are west of the operational too.

[UpTheCreek]

Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.

I don't know how to interpret exactly what you're saying here. "Not close buddies", as in it's giving Carolinas a good berth or it'll be bad for the Carolinas. Could you elaborate for the less experienced?

[weatherwindow]

dude look at the CMC 0Z....that is crazy!!! I have never seen anything like it....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Been involved with Emergency Mgmt in Florida and the Caribbean for 20yrs...Of course, attended all the conferences etc, every national conference included a Doomsday workshop...at least 2 dealt with the potential for NYC major landfall. Up until now, it had the quality of good fiction, exciting from a distance. Given the confluence of the models, all the heavy hitters save the GFS, this is the first time "potential" may become reality. Fema is beginning to roll on it. This reminds me of the last couple of days pre Katrina when suddenly everyone began to realize those NOLA exercises werent going to be exercises anymore...Rich

[HurrMark]

No one has mentioned the operational GFS, but it is back on board with a Maine solution...granted it is 6Z, so let's see what the 12Z says.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF is way left compared to the 00z.

00z



06z

[OuterBanker]

Lets just say... The ECMWF and the Carolinas are not close buddies right now.

I don't know how to interpret exactly what you're saying here. "Not close buddies", as in it's giving Carolinas a good berth or it'll be bad for the Carolinas. Could you elaborate for the less experienced?

Euro has been consistant over the past ten to fifteen runs on it's affect on the OBX. Nasty would be an undersstatement. High winds, rain, huge surf, moderate to severe flooding. Pulling for the GFS personally (but a Euro hugger in reality).

[brunota2003]

Extra radiosonde launches started at 06Z today.

[ROCK]

Extra radiosonde launches started at 06Z today.

the 12Z GFS is the one to watch....as well as the EURO coming up later today....

I am just waiting for the next CMC run later so I can start taking drinking...

[GCANE]

Hmm, a lot of very close shortwaves as Sandy is in the north Bahamas.

May not make so much the right turn before the NW recurve.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M