EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 25, 2022 9:15 pm

Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 25, 2022 10:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?



 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1529143213126086656




 https://twitter.com/kevishader/status/1529416779407187968


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 25, 2022 11:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?

It's 50/50. Wouldn't be surprised if either solution materialize. However the stronger this is, the more likelihood a BOC system forms from the remnants.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 26, 2022 12:11 am

EPS, GFS, and GEFS all agree on an excellent upper level setup, with a large ULAC in its vicinity even if it’s position is a little different on each of the three and the gap event and a passing CCKW should aid in vorticity and divergence. Question is does it have the time and will it upwell if it moves too slowly.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 26, 2022 1:16 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#26 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 26, 2022 6:28 am

Convection is boiling right now over it, and it appears fairly well organized. Not quite a tropical depression yet, but it’s on its way. Needs more organization.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 6:52 am

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a bit more
concentrated near a surface trough located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 7:40 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#29 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 26, 2022 8:31 am

Convection is organizing. I think this is two days or less from cyclogenesis
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 8:43 am

12z Best Track:

EP, 91, 2022052612, , BEST, 0, 127N, 945W, 25, 1009, DB


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#31 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 26, 2022 9:42 am

Convection continues to organize. However, it’s still displaced to the east from the center low.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 10:14 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 10:55 am

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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#34 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 26, 2022 10:59 am


It looks to be ahead of schedule with that main band forming? Its looking really good for a tropical wave.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 26, 2022 12:44 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 26 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
near a surface trough located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains will be possible along coastal sections of Guatemala
and southern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#36 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 26, 2022 12:50 pm

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HMON first run has Cat 3
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#37 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu May 26, 2022 12:54 pm


Hey, its Lisa Bucci's first outlook!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 26, 2022 12:56 pm

skyline385 wrote:

It looks to be ahead of schedule with that main band forming? Its looking really good for a tropical wave.


FWIW this isn’t considered a tropical wave just an area of disturbed weather in the monsoon trough, and I haven’t seen any signs of a wave axis.

Regardless, this has signs of a persistent mid-level center since yesterday and a low-level center may be forming on the south side where the new burst of convection is.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#39 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu May 26, 2022 12:58 pm

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12z HMON deepens this until almost landfall.
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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#40 Postby skyline385 » Thu May 26, 2022 1:04 pm

HWRF pretty close to HMON. This one has the potential to be quite a good looking storm.

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