EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15948
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?
https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1529143213126086656
https://twitter.com/kevishader/status/1529416779407187968
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15425
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian Will the Gulf of Tehuantepec winds affect the intensity?
It's 50/50. Wouldn't be surprised if either solution materialize. However the stronger this is, the more likelihood a BOC system forms from the remnants.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15948
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
EPS, GFS, and GEFS all agree on an excellent upper level setup, with a large ULAC in its vicinity even if it’s position is a little different on each of the three and the gap event and a passing CCKW should aid in vorticity and divergence. Question is does it have the time and will it upwell if it moves too slowly.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15948
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Convection is boiling right now over it, and it appears fairly well organized. Not quite a tropical depression yet, but it’s on its way. Needs more organization.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a bit more
concentrated near a surface trough located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a bit more
concentrated near a surface trough located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Interests in
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Convection is organizing. I think this is two days or less from cyclogenesis
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
12z Best Track:
EP, 91, 2022052612, , BEST, 0, 127N, 945W, 25, 1009, DB
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Convection continues to organize. However, it’s still displaced to the east from the center low.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
EPAC: INVEST 91E
It looks to be ahead of schedule with that main band forming? Its looking really good for a tropical wave.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 138882
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 26 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
near a surface trough located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains will be possible along coastal sections of Guatemala
and southern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 26 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
near a surface trough located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains will be possible along coastal sections of Guatemala
and southern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1529841790320365568
Hey, its Lisa Bucci's first outlook!
2 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15948
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E
skyline385 wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1529842348364005377
It looks to be ahead of schedule with that main band forming? Its looking really good for a tropical wave.
FWIW this isn’t considered a tropical wave just an area of disturbed weather in the monsoon trough, and I haven’t seen any signs of a wave axis.
Regardless, this has signs of a persistent mid-level center since yesterday and a low-level center may be forming on the south side where the new burst of convection is.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15948
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2444
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Palm Beach County FL
EPAC: INVEST 91E
HWRF pretty close to HMON. This one has the potential to be quite a good looking storm.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests