EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#121 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:11 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:59 pm

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This is at least something.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#123 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Celia has changed little in organization since the last advisory,
with the low-level center exposed just to the northeast of the main
convective area by the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear.
Various satellite intensity intensity estimates are in the 40-55 kt
range, and since there are no significant changes in these since
the last advisory the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The center has turned to the right during the last several hours,
and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. This
northwestward jog is expected to be relatively short-lived, and
Celia is expected to resume a west-northwestward track during the
next 12-24 h on the south side of a large mid- to upper-level
ridge, with the general motion continuing for the remainder f the
forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
forecast, although it has a slightly more northward motion than the
previous forecast during the first 24-36 h. The new forecast track
is also close to the various consensus models.

The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12-18 h, and with
Celia remaining over warm water this should allow intensification
to a hurricane in about 36 h. The cyclone should peak in intensity
between 48-60 h, then weaken as it moves over decreasing sea
surface temperatures after that time. The new intensity forecast
is unchanged from the previous forecast, and the forecast peak
intensity of 75 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#124 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:01 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#125 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:33 am

It looks like more than 15-20kts of shear over it. Models are under doing the shear again. Models need to be updated to not underdo the shear in this area during La Nina's. It's getting old.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#126 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:35 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

The organization of Celia has deteriorated this morning. The
low-level center is completely exposed to the north of a
ragged-looking area of convection. This unexpected separation of
the low-level center, apparently due to the northerly shear, implies
that there has been no increase of intensity since yesterday. The
initial wind speed is held at 45 kt and given the current
appearance of the system, this may even be a generous intensity
estimate.

Celia has taken a northwestward jog over the past 6 to 12 hours.
This is potentially due to the sheared vortex structure. The storm
is expected to become more vertically coupled and resume a
west-northwestward track beginning later today. The longer-term
motion should be governed by the mid-level high pressure system and
associated ridge to the north and northeast of Celia. The new NHC
track forecast is shifted slightly northward on a account of the
recent more northward movement of the cyclone. This is in close
agreement with the model consensus.

The global dynamical models forecast some decrease in the
vertical wind shear, which should allow for gradual intensification
of the storm. However, global models do maintain a moderate
level of shear and this, along with cooler SSTs within the
next day or two, could limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast is a little above most of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 16.3N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.1N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.3N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#127 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:27 am

ULAC badly displaced. This may not strengthen any further as the vortex could be too weak for improved alignment.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:57 am

I don't see Celia becoming a Hurricane at all, the wind shear is following with it.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#129 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:02 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear
which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has
lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have
ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling
to produce much convection near its center. That said, new
convection has recently been developing just to the east of the
center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at
the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get
some scatterometer data later today.

The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but
there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest.
There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with
mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to
drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A
westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by
lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there
is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer
a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track
forecast is therefore higher than it had been.

The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the
core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near
the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen,
with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees
or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC
forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters
being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to
become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder
waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become
post-tropical by day 5.

The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded
significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data
from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#130 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:25 am

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#131 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:28 pm

Celia is organizing rapidly. It finally has well organized convection. It also appears to be developing an inner core quickly. It’s larger as well and will be more resistant to wind shear and dry air.
Edit: the inner convection is displaced and it still is not very organized. Dry air appears to be an issue. It’s still organizing quickly though IMO. I think it peaks at barely cat 1 or high end tropical storm.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#132 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:16 pm

Still very dry its north. Nice not to see that many LLC cloud lines anymore.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#133 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:17 pm

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On an upward trajectory but northerly shear still evident. I expect this to reach 55 knots before SST’s drop off but not sure we’ll reach T4.0.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#134 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:08 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CELIA EP032022 06/23/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 64 70 74 71 67 63 56 49 40 32 26 18 N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 64 70 74 71 67 63 56 49 40 32 26 18 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 56 58 58 55 52 47 41 34 29 25 22 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 5 5 13 15 14 5 4 6 3 5 8 11 10 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -3 -4 0 -6 -3 0 3 4 1 0 0 1 0
SHEAR DIR 349 341 354 25 112 101 73 65 41 47 180 203 217 201 228 225 235
SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.7 25.6 24.5 24.1 22.0 22.1 21.0 21.5 22.1 21.3 21.1
POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 130 125 119 116 119 118 108 104 82 83 72 77 83 74 71
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 83 82 84 84 82 80 74 67 66 61 59 53 50 45 42 36 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 26 28 30 28 28 28 27 26 24 21 20 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR 43 50 51 53 74 81 105 98 115 120 117 99 92 76 70 82 79
200 MB DIV 87 92 88 79 110 115 91 52 22 -31 -13 -25 3 -3 -5 -9 -18
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -7 -3 -9 -4 -4 -6 -5 -2 3 5
LAND (KM) 379 399 437 473 511 570 553 556 622 699 818 970 1146 1327 1504 1681 1792
LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 108.0 108.6 109.2 110.1 111.4 112.9 114.6 116.7 119.0 121.4 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 8 8 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 25. 29. 26. 22. 18. 11. 4. -5. -13. -19. -27. -34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 106.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 19.0% 6.9% 3.7% 1.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.9% 13.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1%
DTOPS: 7.0% 40.0% 25.0% 14.0% 13.0% 16.0% 14.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/23/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#135 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:08 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 231819
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 23/1730Z

C. 16.0N

D. 107.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...IRREGULAR CDO 1.25 DEGREES IN DIAMETER WHICH RESULTS IN A DT
OF 2.0 WITH NO BF ADDITION. MET IS 3.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. PT
IS 3.0. MET AND PT ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL INTENSITY. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T NUMBER TO 0.5 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:41 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia finally looks like a non-sheared tropical storm. The
low-level center is now embedded beneath a burst of convection that
began earlier this morning, and convective banding is becoming more
pronounced. There's quite a large range of intensity estimates--
from 30 to 45 kt--but given the improved structure, the initial
intensity remains 45 kt at the top of that range. With its improved
structure, Celia should be able to take advantage of low deep-layer
shear and waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for strengthening
over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast still
shows Celia becoming a hurricane and most closely follows SHIPS,
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA at the higher end of the guidance. Gradual
weakening is anticipated after 48 hours as the cyclone moves over
cooler waters, and Celia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low by day 5.

Celia has turned back to the west-northwest (300 degrees) at a
slightly slower speed of 10 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging across
the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to
expand westward over the next few days, keeping Celia on a
west-northwestward course until lower-level winds turn the remnant
low to the west by day 5. The steering currents do weaken a bit,
however, and Celia could be moving around 5 kt in about 36 hours.
The track guidance has slowed down during the middle to latter part
of the forecast, and the updated NHC forecast is therefore also a
little slower than the morning forecast. There is no change to
Celia's predicted trajectory, however.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:43 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#138 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:09 pm

Northern CDO quad you can see sharp rounded edges. Still signs of northerly shear and dry air.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#139 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:36 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 240003
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 16.8N

D. 107.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...1.25 DEG WELL DEFINED CDO WITH NO BANDING FEATURE YIELDS
DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO COLD CONVECTION
BEING USED IN MEASUREMENT OF CDO BLOSSOMING WITHIN THE HOUR PRIOR TO
CLASSIFICATION, THUS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD FEATURES THAT IMPACTS
THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#140 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:49 pm

Image

Likely some MLC and LLC displacement but it’s conceivable that this becomes a hurricane tomorrow with this structure which I could not say yesterday. I’d like to see more banding though.
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