EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:36 am

EP, 93, 2022061412, , BEST, 0, 123N, 886W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 90, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, ep762022 to ep932022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:31 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#3 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:12 pm

Invest 93E will likely receive way less attention than its Atlantic Invest counterpart, but the development of this system is crucial for how north 93L gets before land interaction with Central America. A faster development will send 93L into Nicaragua, but a slower development could allow 93L to get north of Honduras before forcing it to bend westward in conjunction with the ridge currently sitting over the eastern half of the CONUS (which could open up the possibility for impacts as far north as Corpus Christi or Brownsville imo). Bizarre to see a cross-basin binary interaction being possible, especially this early into the season, but fascinating nonetheless.

Both systems need to be watched closely in the short-term for future impacts, especially for Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Could be a lot of rain dumped in a very short amount of time, and this is an area of the world very prone to mudslides unfortunately.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:54 pm

Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of El Salvador continue to
show signs of organization in association with a trough of low
pressure. Further development of this system is possible while it
drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:55 pm

Slowly organizing with a clear rotation on visible but don’t think it has a closed circulation yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:12 pm

EP, 93, 2022061418, , BEST, 0, 125N, 895W, 25, 1007, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:38 pm

1. Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of El Salvador continue to
show signs of organization in association with a trough of low
pressure. Further development of this system is possible while it
drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:54 am

1. Off the coast of Central America:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala
and El Salvador are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is possible while it drifts
erratically, and it could become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development by this weekend. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:53 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:48 am

12z GFS has it turning into a powerful hurricane closer than Blas to Mexican coast and Baja.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#11 Postby zzh » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:04 pm

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Looks pretty good.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:27 pm

:uarrow: still troughy
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:54 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:55 pm

There has been next to zero consistency from the GFS on this thing regarding track, intensity, etc. lol. Dunno what to make of it all.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:42 pm

Off the coast of Central America:
An area of disturbed weather located a couple of hundred miles south
of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with this disturbance remains disorganized at
this time, a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
couple days while the system drifts erratically. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development
over the weekend. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:04 am

Off the coast of Central America:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some with an area of
low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts
of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become a bit more favorable over the next day or two and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days.
This system is forecast to drift erratically through the weekend but
begin a more pronounced westward motion by early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across
portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:33 am

Looks fairly good.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:39 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:40 pm

Here we go.

Off the coast of Central America:
Satellite-derived surface wind data indicates that the area of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador is becoming better defined and has maximum
sustained winds of near 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity
near this low is also showing signs of organization. If these trends
continue, a tropical depression could form as soon as this
afternoon. This system is forecast to drift erratically through the
weekend but begin a more pronounced westward motion by early next
week. Interests along the coast of southern El Salvador, Guatemala,
and extreme southeastern Mexico should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern
Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:08 pm

Models show this struggling a bit before it finds its footing in about 2-3 days.
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