EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#101 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:47 am

is again a Tropical Storm.

EP, 03, 2022062112, , BEST, 0, 116N, 989W, 35, 1005, TS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#102 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:30 am

Yeah it looks pretty good on ir. If it was ir alone I’d guess hurricane but that’s only because I can’t see the extremely displaced llc on ir.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:35 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Deep convection has been increasing, but it remains confined to the
west of the center of Celia due to about 20 kt of east-northeasterly
shear. Even though the cyclone is still asymmetric, it does appear
a little better organized than it was several hours ago. The latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial intensity is
nudged up to 35 kt based on that data. This makes Celia a tropical
storm once again.

Celia is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 10 kt,
and it is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge that is
centered over the south-central U.S. A turn to the west-northwest is
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue during the next
several days as the storm moves within the flow on the southwest
side of the ridge. Despite the fairly straightforward steering
pattern, there remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance with
the HWRF and UKMET models on the southern edge and the ECMWF model
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various
consensus aids.

Celia will likely strengthen at a slow pace during the next couple
of days as the system remains in moderate to strong shear
conditions. The overall environment looks best for Celia late this
week and early this weekend, when the shear is expected to decrease
and while SSTs beneath the system remain warm, and it will likely
become a hurricane during that time. However, later in the weekend,
the storm is expected to move over sub 26 C waters, which should end
the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance during the
next 36-48 hours, but falls near the middle of the envelope beyond
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 11.6N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.4N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:26 am

TXPZ23 KNES 211152
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 21/1130Z

C. 11.8N

D. 98.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY
OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:41 am

Circulation still is semiexposed.

Image
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:52 am

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:55 pm

EP, 03, 2022062118, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1008W, 40, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:48 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2022 2:58 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 211813
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 21/1730Z

C. 11.8N

D. 100.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET=2.0 AND
PT=2.5. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS INCR IN LAST 6 HR. FT IS BASED
ON PT DUE TO IRREG CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:43 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Recent scatterometer data suggest that Celia's surface circulation
is stretched from northeast to southwest, and it's possible that the
center is re-forming closer to the deep convection. Tropical-storm-
force winds are confined to the southwestern quadrant (within the
convection), and the least-questionable of the two ASCAT passes
suggests that peak winds are near 40 kt. This is a little higher
than the subjective Dvorak estimates but equal to the latest
UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

Celia appears to have turned toward the west-northwest, and with
the center being tugged westward by the convection, has sped up a
little bit with a motion of 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next 5 days,
with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through Friday.
While the UKMET has come closer in line with the other models on
this cycle, the HWRF remains a southern outlier, likely because it
is showing more immediate intensification to a hurricane within 24
hours. This scenario does not appear reasonable given the current
shear conditions, and the NHC forecast remains farther north,
closer to the model consensus aids and the 1500 UTC forecast.

Moderate-to-strong shear from the east-northeast is likely to
continue affecting Celia for the next 36 hours or so. Some
continued gradual strengthening is still possible, however, and the
NHC forecast is at the low end of the intensity guidance during
that period. After 36 hours, the official forecast is closer to the
model consensus aids ICON and HCCA as deep-layer shear decreases
and SSTs remain above 26C, and Celia is forecast to become a
hurricane by Thursday. Some weakening is anticipated over the
weekend once Celia reaches sub-26C ocean waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Satellite imagery shows little change in the organization of Celia
since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the
northeastern edge of the main area of convective bursts. This is
due to the effects of about 20 kt of northeasterly shear. Various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range and have changed little over the past several hours.
The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia continues to moves west-northwestward with a slower forward
speed, and the initial motion is now 295/11. A subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a general west-northwestward trajectory for the next
5 days, with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through
Friday. While the track forecast models are in general agreement
with this scenario, the guidance is somewhat loosely clustered due
to some cross-track spread. The new forecast track is a little to
the north of the previous forecast during the first 72 h, and then
is similar to the previous forecast.

The large-scale models indicate the current shear is likely to
persist for another 24 h or so, and based on this slow
strengthening is forecast during the first part of the intensity
forecast. From 24-60 h, the shear should diminish while Celia is
still over warm sea surface temperatures, and this should allow
for a faster rate of strengthening and for Celia to become a
hurricane. After 60 h, the cyclone should moved over colder sea
surface temperatures, and the new intensity forecast calls for a
little faster weakening than the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.0N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.1N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 107.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:46 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2022 10:11 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 220023
TCSENP

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 21/2330Z

C. 12.7N

D. 101.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A LLCC CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT
LIES LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES AWAY FROM A LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND IN APPARENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT DUE TO THE MEASURED CONVECTION ONLY HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
3-4 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2320Z 12.7N 101.4W SSMIS


...HOSLEY
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:34 am

You know there's shear and its struggling when you can see the LLC in nighttime VIS.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:44 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The organization of Celia has not changed significantly based
on satellite imagery since the last advisory. A couple of recent
scatterometer passes showed an elongated low-level circulation on
the northeastern edge of a convective burst, likely due to the
effects of the moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak intensity
estimates range between 35 and 45 kt, and with no increase in the
organization of the cloud pattern in the past several hours, the
initial intensity estimate remains 40 kt. Data from the
scatterometer overpasses suggest that this may be a generous
intensity estimate, however.

Celia continues to move west-northwestward at 295/11 kt along the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
United States. This ridge is expected to continue to steer the
tropical cyclone west-northwestward with a gradual decrease in
forward speed through the forecast period. The track forecast
models have come into better agreement, however there are still
some discrepancies over the speed at which Celia will move during
the next several days. The official track forecast is in very good
agreement with the previous NHC prediction and remains close to the
dynamical model consensus.

Based on the dynamical guidance, the moderate shear over the
tropical storm is expected to persist today before decreasing this
evening. Since other environmental factors are already conducive
for intensification, Celia is expected strengthen to a hurricane
within the next 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is near
or above the intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.4N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.9N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:35 am

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 22/1130Z

C. 13.7N

D. 103.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER NEAR A LARGE COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. PT
IS ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER
LOCATION AND LACK OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:35 am

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's
center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of
deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective
cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that
the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated
intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses
ranging between 35 and 45 kt.

Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States
and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the
west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even
with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is
larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast,
mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is
slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower
than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is
a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the
model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right
side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a
general west-northwestward heading through Monday.

Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of
deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then
drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established
low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the
lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane
strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively
short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C
waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is
anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous
forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during
the middle part of the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:42 am

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:19 pm

Still obvious NE/easterly shear disrupting the mid and lower levels. Models do show it getting its act together within the next 24 hours though. We'll see.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:43 pm

A little stronger.

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The convective pattern associated with Celia has been improving this
afternoon. Although the storm is still asymmetric, thunderstorm
activity is beginning to curve around the center of circulation
during the past couple of hours. A recent ASCAT-B pass captured a
portion of the western side of the system, and showed reliable winds
in the 35-40 kt range. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt.
Based on a combination of all of this data, the initial intensity is
increased a little to 45 kt.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 7 kt, and it is
currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over
the south-central U.S. This ridge is expected to remain in control
during the next several days, and it should keep Celia on a general
west-northwest track through the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast lies near the southern edge of the guidance in the short
term, partially based on extrapolation, but near the consensus
models after that.

The environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for Celia during the next couple of days. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing to about 10 kt during that time while the storm
remains over 27-28 degree C waters. These conditions should allow
Celia to strengthen, and it is expected to become a hurricane in
about 36 hours. By the weekend, however, Celia is expected to cross
the 26 degree C isotherm and move into a drier airmass, which should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


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