EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#81 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:37 am

Kingarabian , they say is going to move WNW and that is what you want to see.

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone.
Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed
low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a
tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of
strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that
is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in
strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia
could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to
lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in
the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster
motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the
consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are
both on the right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#82 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:59 am

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#83 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:16 pm

Celia is reorganizing. Might be at 30 knots next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#84 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , they say is going to move WNW and that is what you want to see.

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a poorly organized and weak tropical cyclone.
Geostationary satellite and microwave images show an exposed
low-level center with fragmented curved bands on its west side. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt, and Celia is barely hanging on as a
tropical depression. The depression has been in an environment of
strong east-northeasterly shear during the past day or so, and that
is expected to continue through tonight. Therefore, no change in
strength is expected during that time and it is possible that Celia
could even open into a trough. However, the shear is expected to
lessen after that, and given the conducive environment later in
the week, strengthening seems likely from 24-120 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and a blend of
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

The system is moving west-southwestward at about 7 kt. A faster
motion to the west and then the west-northwest is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered by a building low-
to mid-level ridge to its north. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and lies a little to the north of the
consensus aids, leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models, which are
both on the right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.7N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Looks short term. Unfortunately the models show too much of a NW component compared to a west track.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#85 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:19 pm

Up to 30kt.


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep032022.dat


EP, 03, 2022062018, , BEST, 0, 119N, 958W, 30, 1006, TD
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#86 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:42 pm

A. 03E (CELIA)

B. 20/1730Z

C. 11.8N

D. 95.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A LLCC <1.25 DEG FM A SMALL COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.5. MET=1.5 AND PT=1.0. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT IN
OVERCALL ORGANIZATION IN LAST 6 HR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#87 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 30kt.


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep032022.dat


EP, 03, 2022062018, , BEST, 0, 119N, 958W, 30, 1006, TD

Called it! It is looking better with shear subsiding.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#88 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#89 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 4:21 pm

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Celia remains a sheared tropical cyclone south of southern Mexico
with deep convection confined to the west of the center due to about
20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the center is still
exposed, deep convection has increased a little today and banding
features are becoming a little better established on the system's
south and west sides. Satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to
37 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 30 kt based on
that data. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon.

After moving south of due west for the past 18-24 hours, Celia has
now turned westward and picked up speed. The latest initial motion
estimate is 275/11 kt. Celia is expected to continue westward for
the next couple of days as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge
to its north. After that time, a slightly slower west-northwest
motion is expected as it moves on the southwest side of the ridge.
Although the models generally agree on the large-scale steering
pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in forward speed and
direction. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and still lies to the north of the consensus models,
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models.

The ongoing east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for
another day, so strengthening will likely be limited in the short
term. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that time, and
given the moist airmass and high SSTs, steady strengthening seems
likely between 24 and 96 hours. By the end of the forecast period,
Celia will likely be moving over cooler SSTs, which should end the
strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly
higher peak than the previous one and is in best agreement with the
IVCN model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.1N 98.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#90 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:02 pm

Organizing.

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#91 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:23 pm

Yup just gotta get it away from that semi permanent ULAC shearing feature near the coast of Mexico.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#92 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:40 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:06 pm

Image

Good example of a gradual increase in convection over the center as a result of shear relaxing.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#94 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/988580045033455646/goes16_rgb_03E.gif

Good example of a gradual increase in convection over the center as a result of shear relaxing.

looks better than Barry.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#95 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:43 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CELIA EP032022 06/21/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 42 51 60 67 74 77 81 81 75 69 64 58
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 42 51 60 67 74 77 81 81 75 69 64 58
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 36 38 41 43 44 47 50 53 54 54 49 42 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 15 16 23 19 16 8 10 8 4 4 11 5 7 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 3 4 8 5 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 1 3 3 6
SHEAR DIR 64 66 57 56 50 63 73 39 25 351 7 23 126 138 122 177 172
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 26.9 25.3 25.2 25.6 25.1 23.3 23.5 22.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 149 152 150 149 147 147 132 115 113 117 113 94 97 85
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 85 82 84 84 84 85 85 84 80 79 72 72 72 73 71 69 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 14 13 15 17 19 20 23 25 28 31 30 28 27 24
850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 22 29 35 39 48 44 64 71 81 92 91 106 108 119 101
200 MB DIV 76 89 119 110 112 139 152 134 108 86 80 70 86 21 16 -9 -17
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -5
LAND (KM) 440 454 471 477 492 531 515 473 482 515 576 572 574 576 620 667 788
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.9 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.9 98.0 99.1 100.0 100.9 102.7 104.3 105.7 107.1 108.7 110.1 111.3 112.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 28 35 29 29 45 30 17 13 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 16. 20. 21. 18. 15. 12. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 21. 30. 37. 44. 47. 51. 51. 45. 39. 34. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 96.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.04 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.1% 13.8% 13.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 17.7%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 4.2% 7.5%
Bayesian: 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1%
Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 4.8% 4.4% 0.0% 4.9% 1.5% 9.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/21/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#97 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:58 pm

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

The depression has become better organized based on geostationary
and microwave satellite imagery. The center is embedded in the
eastern side of a growing area of deep convection. However,
subjective satellite estimates still support an intensity at 30 kt
and therefore, the initial intensity is set to that value.

Despite moderate east-northeasterly shear, the depression is
expected to gradually re-strengthen in the next day or so. Celia
will likely continue to intensify in the following few days, in part
due to the cyclone moving over warm waters in a low-or-moderate
shear environment. At the end of the forecast period,
intensification will likely halt as the storm encounters cooler
waters. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous one and represents a compromise between the higher
dynamical hurricane models and lower global model intensities.

Celia continues westward (270/11 kt) due to the steering flow of a
mid-level ridge to its north, and this motion should persist for
another day or so. The system is expected to turn west-northwest
and eventually northwestward as it rounds the southwest side of the
ridge. There is a fair bit of model disagreement this cycle in both
cross-track and along-track storm positions. This is possibly due
to a wide variety of forecast model tropical cyclone vortex depths
which experience very different environmental steering flows. The
NHC track forecast lies to the north of the consensus aids, a little
closer to the global models, and is slightly faster than the
previous forecast. The large spread in model guidance makes this
track forecast more uncertain than average.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 11.9N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.1N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.2N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.9N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.3N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#98 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#99 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:18 am

Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Celia has changed little in organization during the past several
hours. Strong northeasterly shear has been affecting the
depression, with the center of the cyclone near the sharp
northeastern edge of a rather shapeless area of very strong
convection. The system lacks well-defined banding features at this
time, and Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB support keeping the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

Based on the SHIPS model output, Celia should continue to be in an
environment of moderate, but significant, vertical shear for
the next day or two followed by a notable decrease of shear
in 48 hours. The official intensity forecast calls for only slow
strengthening in the early part of the period followed by a
slightly faster rate of intensification for a while thereafter. In
3-5 days, however, cooler SSTs should limit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus
for the earlier part of the period and a little above it later
on. This is about the same as in the previous NHC forecast.

Celia has been moving slightly south of west, or about 265/11 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from a high
centered near the southern U.S. Plains should remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Celia
should move on a generally west-northwestward track on the
southwest side of the ridge for most of the forecast period.
Although the steering pattern seems relatively straightforward,
there are noticeable differences in the track forecasts from some
of the more reliable models. As noted earlier, this could partially
be due to differences in the cyclone vortex depths in these models.
The official track forecast is only slightly south of the previous
one, and follows the corrected multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 11.6N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.1N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.8N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Depression

#100 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:32 am

Celia looks strong. Very tilted but it should straighten up with time.
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