EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

What are we seeing here again? The storm gaining more spin? Just wanted to make sure

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2022062500, , BEST, 0, 80N, 333W, 20, 1011, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

I'm still skeptical that this becomes anything crazy, but some of these model runs are pretty concerning. Strong June/July systems are rare but not impossible so this will be one to watch for sure.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1540507978276769809

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1540516527979495425

[wxman57]

It is behaving precisely as I expected. Convection is decreasing as it accelerates westward. Best chance of development is west of 70W, though I wouldn't rule out a TD/TS as it approaches the islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like it's definitely taking a shot at trying to "spin" per se

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1540507978276769809

Yeah usually curved cloud lines on these MW passes is indicative of a formed LLC. Probably a TD already.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kohlecane]

starting to look pretty healthy, good looking Axis

[TallyTracker]

NHC is seeing some improvement to the convective structure. Still 60% in the 5 day timeline.


543
ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
Cloudiness and showers have become a little more concentrated near a
tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week. This system is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move into
the southeastern Caribbean Sea by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

Satellite loop of 94L from Meteosat-11, 94L is the one in the middle I say that as it looks like the next wave that came off Africa behind it is also starting to curl up.

Source - https://col.st/AyNp1

[wxman57]

All models are trending south (toward Nicaragua), including GFS & EC ensembles. Not many members taking it into the Gulf now (good). I'd say development chances within 5 days are at least 80% and 90-95% just past 5 days.

[cycloneye]

T number dvorak SSD 1.0.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 25/1130Z

C. 8.6N

D. 35.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 1.0. MET IS
1.0 AND PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2022062512, , BEST, 0, 83N, 353W, 20, 1011, DB

[aspen]

Dmin is doing its work, but I can see some kind of spin in there. It isn’t a closed circulation yet, just a step on the way there.

[WiscoWx02]

Dmin is doing its work, but I can see some kind of spin in there. It isn’t a closed circulation yet, just a step on the way there.

Kinda hard to tell where the actual main circulation is. Looks like there are two potential candidates but because you have the displaced convection to the north this makes sense. This convection is dying out though, which may give the dominant vorticity center a chance to fire new convection and take over tonight or tomorrow. We shall see.

EDIT: Actually, I’m almost positive Bret in 2017 or the wave that would form Bret did the exact same thing. Struggled with deep convection and was very anemic until it reached 55W west roughly.

[cycloneye]

Great thread.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1540701296377749505




 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1540701305668239360

[UTSARoadrunner4]

One thing I haven’t seen mentioned on here is that there’s a “cold front” that is scheduled to come through Texas between Sunday & Monday. I assume that this would at least move the ridge a bit to the East or even weaken it a little bit, allowing for a little bit of an alleyway to the NW. Is it possible that the TUTT is the reason why future Bonnie may go into Central America instead of picking up some significant latitude?