EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

At this point this has gained enough organization to be declared a TS. Looks like SA helped tighten it up

[wxman57]

Strong waves often produce TS winds on the north side when moving >20kts to the west. I saw that little swirl near the coast of Venezuela at first light, but does it qualify for an organized LLC? I'd say no. Meanwhile Caracas has a NW wind at 10 kts and the ABC islands are at 10-15 kts from the NE-ENE.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's a hi-res 2 hour loop of 94L using GOES-17 Meso Sector.

Source - https://col.st/iKtlj

[Nuno]

I think its cool to see land friction due to Venezuela, don't see that often. This is clearly a weak TS at this point. So much for the "NHC overnames everything" conspiracy theory

[NDG]

Strong waves often produce TS winds on the north side when moving >20kts to the west. I saw that little swirl near the coast of Venezuela at first light, but does it qualify for an organized LLC? I'd say no. Meanwhile Caracas has a NW wind at 10 kts and the ABC islands are at 10-15 kts from the NE-ENE.

290 deg wind is not a true NW wind, is more westerly than NW.

Conditions at: SVMI observed 29 June 2022 18:00 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.94 inches Hg (1014.0 mb)
Winds: from the WNW (290 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 knots; 4.7 m/s)
Visibility: 5 miles (8 km)
Ceiling: 1600 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1600 feet AGL
Present Weather: DZ (drizzle)
SVMI 291800Z 29009KT 8000 DZ BKN016 27/24 Q1014

[aspen]

Hopefully recon can get a little further south to confirm with extra certainty that an LLC has formed. I’m not sure if the NHC will be comfortable upgrading it to TS Bonnie just yet.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1542221330178838538

[cheezyWXguy]

Naked swirl alert on visible, looks like a closed llc to me. Not exactly strong, but if it can maintain or reform further into the convection I think it’ll make quick work of the open waters once it clears SA

[wxman57]

West wind 5 kts at Caracas, east wind 10 kts at Bonaire. Raining at Curacao & Aruba with 5-10 kt winds. Heaviest squalls are 200 miles north of the weak swirl. Hardly qualifies as a TS. Good radar from Accuweather:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/tt/national/weather-radar

[NDG]

Hopefully recon can get a little further south to confirm with extra certainty that an LLC has formed. I’m not sure if the NHC will be comfortable upgrading it to TS Bonnie just yet.

Recon went back, too bad, that naked LLC is now getting into Dutch air territory.

[aspen]

Hopefully recon can get a little further south to confirm with extra certainty that an LLC has formed. I’m not sure if the NHC will be comfortable upgrading it to TS Bonnie just yet.

Recon went back, too bad, that naked LLC is now getting into Dutch air territory.

What they did get might be enough. Look at how the wind barbs shifted as they traveled along 12.5N above the naked swirl.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 402A-PTC02

[wxman57]

Hopefully recon can get a little further south to confirm with extra certainty that an LLC has formed. I’m not sure if the NHC will be comfortable upgrading it to TS Bonnie just yet.

Recon went back, too bad, that naked LLC is now getting into Dutch air territory.

What they did get might be enough. Look at how the wind barbs shifted as they traveled along 12.5N above the naked swirl.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 402A-PTC02

That wind shift just indicates a wave axis, not a circulation. That naked swirl was nothing.

[NDG]

Recon went back, too bad, that naked LLC is now getting into Dutch air territory.

What they did get might be enough. Look at how the wind barbs shifted as they traveled along 12.5N above the naked swirl.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 402A-PTC02

That wind shift just indicates a wave axis, not a circulation. That naked swirl was nothing.

Time will tell, that naked LLC is going straight for Curacao or will at least track very close to the south of it.

[wxman57]

On satellite, it looks more like a wave than it has for 2 days. The MLC is no longer evident.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1542244616111529984

[NDG]

On satellite, it looks more like a wave than it has for 2 days. The MLC is no longer evident.

Something that it didn't have during the past couple of days, a closed weak circulation. IMO.

[ChrisH-UK]

It looks like the rotation that was near to the coast earlier if moving more north west pulling away from the coast and would be going over Bonaire about now.

[wxman57]

Just a naked swirl. NHC's discussion agreed with me - less organized and more elongated. It'll get its LLC tomorrow evening after passing Colombia.

[aspen]

Dmax is coming in several hours and could be enough to keep the circulation intact, or maybe tighten it up a bit before it finally starts pulling away from Colombia tomorrow.

The 5pm NHC forecast now calls for a hurricane in the EPac. Watch this be a low end C1 at landfall in the Atlantic and blow up into an EPac major to copy some other July storm from 96.

[zzh]

Dmax is coming in several hours and could be enough to keep the circulation intact, or maybe tighten it up a bit before it finally starts pulling away from Colombia tomorrow.

The 5pm NHC forecast now calls for a hurricane in the EPac. Watch this be a low end C1 at landfall in the Atlantic and blow up into an EPac major to copy some other July storm from 96.

Actually it's Dmin that is coming in several hours. Dmax is 10+ hours away