EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Count me slightly underwhelmed that this wave that tried to develop off Africa takes until it’s all the way in the Western Caribbean to finally develop. Though it is still only June.

[cycloneye]

Maybe Bonnie?

[InfernoFlameCat]

With PTC2 still not having developed, Wxman57 really knows his stuff. It should develop today though.
Edit. It has developed

[tolakram]

If PTC2 is ever going to become anything significant before landfall or have a chance of surviving its crossover into the EPac, it needs to develop convection over its LLC fast. It’s possibly classifiable, but in a very poor state right now.

It probably will in the next few hours as it pulls away from land, that llc has really tightened up overnight. That said, if it doesn’t start firing by evening I’d say the chances of this reaching cat1 are next to none.

DMAX will make or break this system for good.

DMAX is in the morning over the ocean if I recall correctly, DMIN is right at sunset.

[kevin]

It's about time (I mean it feels like we've already been waiting for this to get named for 2 weeks), but that recent recon pass should finally be enough to get Bonnie.

[Hurricane Mike]

Yeah looks like it finally made it.

Can you imagine how many of these systems we've tracked over the years that take days and days to develop?

[MBryant]

I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.

[KirbyDude25]

I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.

Its official name is Invest 95L. It's currently not expected to develop, but it'll still bring some rain and wind.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.

That one is Invest 95L - there's a separate thread for that disturbance as it attempts to develop before coming ashore later tonight/early tomorrow.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is the story of PTC2 in a nutshell, the way I see it:

Dry air/moisture levels: +
Low wind shear: +
Warm ssts: +

Therefore, it should become a decent hurricane in the Caribbean!


Trade winds and very strong high pressure to the north be like:

[tolakram]

I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.

We have a thread for every active disturbance. That one is 95L and the discussion is in this thread: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=120

[wxman57]

What the plane found was similar to what the plane found in the NW Gulf yesterday, a weak disorganized center with no squalls anywhere near it. No upgrade from the NHC this hour, and they saw the recon data. I don't know that it qualifies for an upgrade yet. Maybe tonight. I'm still thinking that there is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico. Back to working on the next advisory.

[galaxy401]

Even if this system might have a closed low now, there is little to no convection going on with no sign of any flaring up at the moment. Also it's supposed to slow down but there seems to be no sign of that happening right now.

[psyclone]

We need a PTC shot clock. 48 hours. that's the whole point. Any PTC not whelped into a full scale TC within the 48 hour window needs to be designated "the disturbance previously known as PTC 2". Or perhaps a potential PTC. I like that one too.

[aspen]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

[cycloneye]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

Is moving too fast to have convergence.

[Hammy]

With PTC2 still not having developed, Wxman57 really knows his stuff. It should develop today though.
Edit. It has developed

Still a disturbance as of 2pm and not enough organization for upgrade. Certainly not something I'd put in my advisories if not for the PTC designation.

[cheezyWXguy]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.

Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.

[wxman57]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.

Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.

...and the 2004 season, which had the first named storm July 31.

[cycloneye]

A. 02L (NONAME)

B. 30/1730Z

C. 12.3N

D. 74.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND
PT AGREE BASED ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET SINCE CONVECTION AND BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT. CI IS
ADJUSTED BASED ON REANALYSIS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE