EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#641 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:48 pm

Image

Image

T5.0 with LG eye surrounded W embedded LG.
2 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#642 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:52 pm

Image

Appears to be undergoing an ERC again, which lines up with the eye contraction.
1 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#643 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:28 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 042351
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 04/2330Z

C. 14.3N

D. 100.8W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FILLED EYE. IN EIR IMAGERY, LG EYE
SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS E-NO OF 5.0 WITH EYE-ADJ
OF -0.5, THUS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#644 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:01 pm

Up to 90kt.

EP, 04, 2022070500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1008W, 90, 974, HU
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#645 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:50 pm

Image

Full outer eyewall still evident but seems to be contracting some.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#646 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:47 pm

Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#647 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:10 pm

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7266
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#648 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#649 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast
0 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4493
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#650 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:40 am

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast

No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#651 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:45 am

ElectricStorm wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast

No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3

Oh yea, i checked the forecast discussion before making that comment and somehow thought i saw a major in there. Guess that’s what i get for being here at 5.30 AM lol
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#652 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:23 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#653 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:35 am

Image

T6.0 instantaneous DT.
2 likes   

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#654 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:07 am


Instantaneous 6.0 one could argue major status. Sustained 6.0 cat 4.
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#655 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:13 am

TXPZ25 KNES 051206
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 05/1130Z

C. 15.1N

D. 103.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMB IN B RESULTS IN DT OF 6.0
AFTER EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#656 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:19 am

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#657 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:02 am

Cat 3.

EP, 04, 2022070512, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1037W, 100, 964, HU
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
InfernoFlameCat
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1966
Age: 20
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
Location: Buford, GA

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#658 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:09 am

Makes sense with the instantaneous 6.0 with a maintained 5.0+
0 likes   
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.

Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5523
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#659 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:02 am

Given its progression through the ERC, I’m skeptical recon would actually find cat3 winds at this time, considering what double eye walls can do to flatten the pressure gradient. It’s understandable though since Dvorak is really all we have to go off of right now. Either way, if shear holds off long enough to let the new eye clear out there won’t be any more question that it’s a major
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#660 Postby underthwx » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:36 am

I noticed on the NHC forecast track, that Bonnie weakens to a TS in a few days, is this a result of cooler water?
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests