EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2299
- Age: 28
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Count me slightly underwhelmed that this wave that tried to develop off Africa takes until it’s all the way in the Western Caribbean to finally develop. Though it is still only June.
5 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Maybe Bonnie?
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
With PTC2 still not having developed, Wxman57 really knows his stuff. It should develop today though.
Edit. It has developed
Edit. It has developed
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:aspen wrote:If PTC2 is ever going to become anything significant before landfall or have a chance of surviving its crossover into the EPac, it needs to develop convection over its LLC fast. It’s possibly classifiable, but in a very poor state right now.
It probably will in the next few hours as it pulls away from land, that llc has really tightened up overnight. That said, if it doesn’t start firing by evening I’d say the chances of this reaching cat1 are next to none.
DMAX will make or break this system for good.
DMAX is in the morning over the ocean if I recall correctly, DMIN is right at sunset.
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
It's about time (I mean it feels like we've already been waiting for this to get named for 2 weeks), but that recent recon pass should finally be enough to get Bonnie.
1 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 562
- Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Yeah looks like it finally made it.
Can you imagine how many of these systems we've tracked over the years that take days and days to develop?
Can you imagine how many of these systems we've tracked over the years that take days and days to develop?
0 likes
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.
0 likes
Living at the intersection of Rita and Humberto and Ike and Harvey and Laura and Delta!
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
- KirbyDude25
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 19
- Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:03 am
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
MBryant wrote:I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.
Its official name is Invest 95L. It's currently not expected to develop, but it'll still bring some rain and wind.
1 likes
New Jersey, Rutgers '27
Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Fay 2020 | Isaias 2020 | Ida 2021
Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Fay 2020 | Isaias 2020 | Ida 2021
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 325
- Age: 23
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:50 pm
- Location: North Georgia
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
MBryant wrote:I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.
That one is Invest 95L - there's a separate thread for that disturbance as it attempts to develop before coming ashore later tonight/early tomorrow.
1 likes
Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3357
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
This is the story of PTC2 in a nutshell, the way I see it:
Dry air/moisture levels: +
Low wind shear: +
Warm ssts: +
Therefore, it should become a decent hurricane in the Caribbean!
Trade winds and very strong high pressure to the north be like:
Dry air/moisture levels: +
Low wind shear: +
Warm ssts: +
Therefore, it should become a decent hurricane in the Caribbean!
Trade winds and very strong high pressure to the north be like:
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19165
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
MBryant wrote:I'm a bit confused since I'm just getting back into the new season, but what is the one at the south Texas coast called? It appears the one off the South American coast is receiving the most attention. But after Allison, I treat any tropical system this close to shore as important. It's currently the Orange X.
We have a thread for every active disturbance. That one is 95L and the discussion is in this thread: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=120
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22480
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
What the plane found was similar to what the plane found in the NW Gulf yesterday, a weak disorganized center with no squalls anywhere near it. No upgrade from the NHC this hour, and they saw the recon data. I don't know that it qualifies for an upgrade yet. Maybe tonight. I'm still thinking that there is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico. Back to working on the next advisory.
2 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2299
- Age: 28
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Even if this system might have a closed low now, there is little to no convection going on with no sign of any flaring up at the moment. Also it's supposed to slow down but there seems to be no sign of that happening right now.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
We need a PTC shot clock. 48 hours. that's the whole point. Any PTC not whelped into a full scale TC within the 48 hour window needs to be designated "the disturbance previously known as PTC 2". Or perhaps a potential PTC. I like that one too.
0 likes
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.
Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.
Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
aspen wrote:This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.
Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.
Is moving too fast to have convergence.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
InfernoFlameCat wrote:With PTC2 still not having developed, Wxman57 really knows his stuff. It should develop today though.
Edit. It has developed
Still a disturbance as of 2pm and not enough organization for upgrade. Certainly not something I'd put in my advisories if not for the PTC designation.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5528
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
aspen wrote:This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.
Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.
I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.
Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22480
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
cheezyWXguy wrote:aspen wrote:This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.
Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.
I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.
Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.
...and the 2004 season, which had the first named storm July 31.
5 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: TWO - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
A. 02L (NONAME)
B. 30/1730Z
C. 12.3N
D. 74.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND
PT AGREE BASED ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET SINCE CONVECTION AND BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT. CI IS
ADJUSTED BASED ON REANALYSIS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE
B. 30/1730Z
C. 12.3N
D. 74.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET AND
PT AGREE BASED ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT
IS BASED ON MET SINCE CONVECTION AND BANDING IS NOT CLEAR CUT. CI IS
ADJUSTED BASED ON REANALYSIS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDALE
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 58 guests