EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:57 pm

aspen wrote:Bonnie is now a hurricane on the 00z BT — 70 kt and 987mb


EP, 04, 2022070400, , BEST, 0, 129N, 947W, 70, 987, HU
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:57 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BONNIE EP042022 07/04/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 82 88 92 95 96 93 92 89 82 81 75 68 62 55 49
V (KT) LAND 70 77 82 88 92 95 96 93 92 89 82 81 75 68 62 55 49
V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 86 90 96 98 96 93 87 82 75 66 55 45 36 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 12 14 16 20 17 11 9 7 4 5 10 8 9 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 2 2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 2 2 7
SHEAR DIR 113 68 48 59 49 28 25 35 28 11 327 284 241 228 229 256 271
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.3 26.0 25.0 23.9 22.6 22.6 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 160 162 159 150 144 141 137 138 125 115 104 90 90 91
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 72 73 68 66 62 62 57 52 45 44 40 38 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 15 17 19 21 24 22 24 22 20 17 14 10
850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 23 19 32 25 28 17 36 52 43 50 42 39 25 21 19
200 MB DIV 108 95 68 85 102 60 48 33 14 -18 11 -19 21 -14 -11 -39 -34
700-850 TADV 5 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 9 1 6 6
LAND (KM) 314 272 255 238 251 307 385 491 634 726 792 942 1090 1281 1466 1727 2024
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.7 96.2 97.6 99.1 100.5 103.4 105.9 108.2 110.1 112.2 114.4 117.1 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 13 12 10 10 10 12 15 16 16 16 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 13 17 15 16 18 18 10 6 5 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 11. 14. 11. 7. 3. 0. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 23. 22. 19. 12. 11. 5. -2. -8. -15. -21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.9 94.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 8.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 6.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 7.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 6.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -6.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.9

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 45.8% 53.1% 40.7% 30.8% 22.4% 20.8% 14.4% 9.0%
Logistic: 16.0% 22.3% 12.1% 8.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5%
Bayesian: 17.3% 28.7% 30.3% 18.0% 0.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 26.4% 34.7% 27.7% 19.0% 8.4% 9.7% 5.6% 3.2%
DTOPS: 37.0% 66.0% 59.0% 52.0% 37.0% 19.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/04/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:00 pm

EP, 04, 202207040000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1300N, 9470W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, CL, VI, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T,
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 00z Best Track up to 70kt

#604 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:02 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 00z Best Track up to 70kt

#605 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:03 pm

Was gonna say, there is no way this is still just a ts
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 00z Best Track up to 70kt

#606 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:32 pm

Starting in around 24 hours, Bonnie will become misalinged with a ULAC, resulting in more easterly winds aloft. Now the storm is also easterly so the resultant vector won't be as high as it would be otherwise but it wouldn't surprise me if Bonnie became tilted for a bit.

Image

However, there's enough divergence where I don't think it'll be a problem for too long, and the GFS shows shear relaxing by 84 hours. The SHIPS output trends suggest that the GFS trending downward with shear forecasts. Nevertheless, I'm expecting a double peak with this storm, the first likely as a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow, and the second probably on Thursday or possible Friday if it moves a little more south than currently expected.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 00z Best Track up to 70kt

#607 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:53 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Starting in around 24 hours, Bonnie will become misalinged with a ULAC, resulting in more easterly winds aloft. Now the storm is also easterly so the resultant vector won't be as high as it would be otherwise but it wouldn't surprise me if Bonnie became tilted for a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/LY314ca.png

However, there's enough divergence where I don't think it'll be a problem for too long, and the GFS shows shear relaxing by 84 hours. The SHIPS output trends suggest that the GFS trending downward with shear forecasts. Nevertheless, I'm expecting a double peak with this storm, the first likely as a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow, and the second probably on Thursday or possible Friday if it moves a little more south than currently expected.

https://i.imgur.com/uSo52Dm.png

There’s a chance this becomes annular during its second peak. SHIPS shows a very dry environment with lower shear in about 4-6 days, and the HWRF turns Bonnie into an annular hurricane around that time. It has done decently with Bonnie after it pulled away from South America, so this solution (which has appeared on a few runs now) shouldn’t be discounted.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#608 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
EP, 04, 202207040000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1300N, 9470W, , 1, 77, 2, 979, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, CL, VI, 1, 4545 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T,


Atlantic robbed of its first hurricane, lol.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#609 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:37 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Starting in around 24 hours, Bonnie will become misalinged with a ULAC, resulting in more easterly winds aloft. Now the storm is also easterly so the resultant vector won't be as high as it would be otherwise but it wouldn't surprise me if Bonnie became tilted for a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/LY314ca.png

However, there's enough divergence where I don't think it'll be a problem for too long, and the GFS shows shear relaxing by 84 hours. The SHIPS output trends suggest that the GFS trending downward with shear forecasts. Nevertheless, I'm expecting a double peak with this storm, the first likely as a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow, and the second probably on Thursday or possible Friday if it moves a little more south than currently expected.

https://i.imgur.com/uSo52Dm.png

There’s a chance this becomes annular during its second peak. SHIPS shows a very dry environment with lower shear in about 4-6 days, and the HWRF turns Bonnie into an annular hurricane around that time. It has done decently with Bonnie after it pulled away from South America, so this solution (which has appeared on a few runs now) shouldn’t be discounted.

Bonnie will most likely end up being similar to Felicia last year.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#610 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:44 pm

Nice convection building south of the center, if it can wrap that around this could go places. Overall I think there's a pretty good chance this will become a major, but the way the last few years in the EPAC have gone with several promising storms failing to live up to their potential you never know...
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#611 Postby zzh » Mon Jul 04, 2022 12:46 am

Image
Sheared again
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#612 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:00 am

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/3Grb3NN.gif
Sheared again

Nah, shear isn’t really a problem now, and it hasn’t really been since Bonnie got into the epac. If anything it’s overcoming dry air entrainment induced by it’s earlier ERC. Cloud tops around the center are the coldest they’ve been since Bonnie emerged, it’s just in the process of getting them fully wrapped around.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#613 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 1:43 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#614 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 04, 2022 4:53 am

Still dealing with dry air eroding the NW side of the core. If Bonnie developed a day or two earlier, it probably would’ve had an easier time becoming a hurricane and staying a hurricane. EPac problems have made themselves very apparent since the crossover.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#615 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Jul 04, 2022 5:50 am

Convection finally wrapping around, we'll see if that continues
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#616 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:52 am

All around the eye now.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#617 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:32 am

Image

T5.0 DT.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#618 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:56 am

EP, 04, 2022070412, , BEST, 0, 136N, 983W, 75, 984, HU
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#619 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:56 am

TXPZ25 KNES 041221
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 04/1130Z

C. 13.6N

D. 98.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN DG RESULTS IN DT OF
4.5 AFTER NO EYE ADJ. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#620 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:10 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2022 Time : 122021 UTC
Lat : 13:33:36 N Lon : 98:20:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992mb / 57kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.9 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb
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