EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

I just dont see how this is going to avoid SA right now. Its not gaining and latitude.

Per the models, it'll start to gain latitude within the next 6-12 hours. If I'm not mistaken, should be reaching the western periphery of the blocking high to its north and flow should gradually switch to WNW instead of due west.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

PTC advisories later today?

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern
Windward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

Lot's of popcorn convection action. Overall circulation has tightened up with increased curvature.
https://i.imgur.com/QA1YOhR.gif

50W moment

[ouragans]

Invest 94L
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 27, 2022:

Location: 8.0°N 47.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 90 nm

[Jr0d]

We shall see.

Rule #1

NEVER bet against Wxman57's calls.

This will not be a GoM storm!

Let's not automatically elevate someone's predictions of a storm a week out to the word of God. Even the NHC, with some of the finest meteorologists in the world, busts on their forecasts. Considering that the system is still a nascent invest only on the cusp of TCG, the track and intensity are far from being set in stone. Besides, Rule #1 is "never say never in the tropics", please hand in your hurricane fanclub membership card when you leave

.....I find it extremely difficult to claim that any part of the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche as being off-limits, especially since we're still so far out.

Look at the models convergence, look at the high. No way this turns north into the GoM.

Many folks wishcast often finding something to support their bias of having a storm head their way.

But it is generally wise to wait until a storm develops and has advisories until making such a bold call like it won't go to the GoM

[weeniepatrol]

Atlantic is ANGRY.

[aspen]

I just dont see how this is going to avoid SA right now. Its not gaining and latitude.

Per the models, it'll start to gain latitude within the next 6-12 hours. If I'm not mistaken, should be reaching the western periphery of the blocking high to its north and flow should gradually switch to WNW instead of due west.

Doesn’t look like it has gained much (or any) latitude overnight, and it’s getting awfully close to South America now.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

NHC discussion at 12 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern
Windward Islands. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the
wave axis near 08N47W. The disturbance is moving W around 16 kts.
Fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and seas of 8-11 ft are
in the vicinity of the wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days before the system
reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday
through Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast
of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The system is producing strong convection during the day. I believe it will wane once again but tonight it gets it’s act together and becomes a cyclone.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2022062712, , BEST, 0, 82N, 491W, 30, 1009, DB

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should start to see more convective organization around ~55W as per usual.

[wxman57]

I'm surprised the NHC did not initiate PTC advisories overnight. With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and possible watches warnings needed, their criteria were met last evening. I don't think 94L will be any better organized when it enters the Caribbean than it is now. Perhaps that's the reason for the delay. It will most likely move into the central coast of Nicaragua on Saturday morning as a TS. Still no threat to the Gulf. I have rarely seen such strong model agreement on the track.

[Deshaunrob17]

I really do not know what’s gonna become of 94l but we’ve seen this before. Models not handling systems in the SE Caribbean well. Models show no development but development ends up happening.Don (2017), Kirk (2018), Karen (2019), Gonzalo 2020 and I think even Elsa

[InfernoFlameCat]

Invest 94L is finally lifting north. Close call with South America tho.

[cycloneye]

Follow the NOAA2 mission at the 94L recon thread.

[Kingarabian]

I just dont see how this is going to avoid SA right now. Its not gaining and latitude.

Per the models, it'll start to gain latitude within the next 6-12 hours. If I'm not mistaken, should be reaching the western periphery of the blocking high to its north and flow should gradually switch to WNW instead of due west.

Doesn’t look like it has gained much (or any) latitude overnight, and it’s getting awfully close to South America now.

Gained about half a latitude since my post. Gradually climbing.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

40kt winds so far found by Recon. Just need a circulation.

[MississippiWx]

40kt winds so far found by Recon. Just need a circulation.

Enhanced by trade winds. It’s usually easy to find tropical storm force winds in these disturbances thanks to the trades on the north side. I don’t see it having an organized low yet, just judging by satellite.