EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

This plot from Alex really highlights how far south and atypical Bonnie’s track was

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

30 minute loop of Bonnie:

[Category5Kaiju]

This plot from Alex really highlights how far south and atypical Bonnie’s track was

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220701/922d7f9908d0f3ac185a47b67d392842.jpg

You know, I gotta say, yes it took forever and all the stronger, northern solutions to its track busted, but I have to give credit to Bonnie for trying to form while taking an unprecedented, unusually southern track. That track alone is very hostile for development given the time of year and SA land hurdles.

I can totally see this storm being referenced to in a future hurricane season by Andy Hazelton, Danny Morris, and those folks on Twitter haha. It definitely is not the most normal June/July system, especially given how far south it is and its track record of keeping us all irritated for taking so long to form lol

[cycloneye]

Agree.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1542982139565805574

[skyline385]

Agree.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1542982139565805574

Also a strong outflow from the upper anti cyclone.

[Hammy]

Still offshore, inner core showing up clearly

[Teban54]

Ironically, Bonnie joins the list of "if only it had 24 more hours over water" storms after literally having an entire week.

[zzh]

Wow

[cycloneye]

Just in time before landfall for plane to reach shortly and see what we have.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/6nQATlW.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/qcWYZEV.jpg
Wow

Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/6nQATlW.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/qcWYZEV.jpg
Wow

Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.

Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/6nQATlW.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/qcWYZEV.jpg
Wow

Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.

Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.

This doesn’t make much sense. Microwave shows a large eyewall forming, yet instead there’s a tiny core with only a minimal pressure drop.

[Ubuntwo]

Maybe recon will find a hurricane, or something close to it. The plane is on the outskirts of Bonnie and should have a center pass in the next half hour or so.

Looks like little to no strengthening has occurred, plane is only finding 45kt flight winds and 30kt at surface.

This doesn’t make much sense. Microwave shows a large eyewall forming, yet instead there’s a tiny core with only a minimal pressure drop.

Appears to be a dry slot rather than a formative eye. The center is embedded in a curved band.

[Ubuntwo]

Center dropsonde supports 999-1000mb

[Kingarabian]

Winds didn't catch up yet. Let's see how it does in the EPAC. Will at one point cross an area off of Mexico that's had a bunch of easterly shear the past 3 years.

[skyline385]

Sharp drop in winds and pressure from recon

[galaxy401]

Early guess from the intensity seems to be at 45 kts.

[aspen]

There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.

This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.

[skyline385]

There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.

This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.

You were right, almost 2.5mb drop in 50 mins