EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

On satellite, it looks more like a wave than it has for 2 days. The MLC is no longer evident.

Something that it didn't have during the past couple of days, a closed weak circulation. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/roXBkjT.gif

Clear LLC here. It arguably had multiple LLCs that reformed over the past 48 hours. Yeah it's not well organized. But it's sufficient. Especially with all the convection it's been consistently maintaining.

[Nimbus]

On satellite, it looks more like a wave than it has for 2 days. The MLC is no longer evident.

Something that it didn't have during the past couple of days, a closed weak circulation. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/roXBkjT.gif

Clear LLC here. It arguably had multiple LLCs that reformed over the past 48 hours. Yeah it's not well organized. But it's sufficient. Especially with all the convection it's been consistently maintaining.

A little convection near Aruba tonight so that may be enough to keep the little swirl powered.
Getting seriously over run by the Easterly shear though.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this will fully become a TS once it clears SA and gets into the SW Caribbean. A moderate to strong TS landfall seems most likely to me but I wouldn't rule out a low end Cat 1 hurricane if it can get going sooner. Once it gets into the EPAC it might have a better chance at becoming something stronger but that's still a ways out.

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video on PTC 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksnZt4OyVus

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

I guess this is going to be one of those seasons with lots of PTC days, at least early on like we have seen so far
This system may not get named until is almost in the Pacific where I am sure it will turn into a MH after crossing C.A.

[WiscoWx02]

I guess this is going to be one of those seasons with lots of PTC days, at least early on like we have seen so far
This system may not get named until is almost in the Pacific where I am sure it will turn into a MH after crossing C.A.

Most PTC’s have taken FOREVER to develop I feel like. Once the NHC classifies it as a PTC the area always seems to just decide to start struggling and decides to take its sweet time

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1542476742140596226

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I guess this is going to be one of those seasons with lots of PTC days, at least early on like we have seen so far
This system may not get named until is almost in the Pacific where I am sure it will turn into a MH after crossing C.A.

Most PTC’s have taken FOREVER to develop I feel like. Once the NHC classifies it as a PTC the area always seems to just decide to start struggling and decides to take its sweet time

This year? Absolutely. Years previously? A little less so.

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1542338500615438336




Given the convective trends overnight, the LLC that has managed to maintain itself since last evening, and the westerly winds reported by Venezuelan and Colombian stations since yesterday, hopefully PTC 2's streak of PTC advisories will end today (or may have already ended in the TCR, but who knows on that front). Will go down as a pretty big whiff from the GFS and the hurricane models regardless of where this ends up and at what intensity, with really only the Euro and ICON having the right idea in terms of forward motion (and even then they struggled with various aspects of the system). Hopefully we have better luck with model performance in the most active part of the season.

[aspen]

I guess this is going to be one of those seasons with lots of PTC days, at least early on like we have seen so far
This system may not get named until is almost in the Pacific where I am sure it will turn into a MH after crossing C.A.

I wonder if storms getting too close to SA is going to be a trend this July/August, just like how last year (and to a lesser extent 2020) plenty of JA systems kept running over the Greater Antilles. First Elsa was stuck over the GAs, then came Fred and Grace. First PTC2/Bonnie ran over SA…maybe others will follow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Although convection isn’t exactly abundant, that llc looks a lot more vigorous than it did yesterday. I think today’s the day.

[wxman57]

I'm expecting an upgrade to Bonnie next hour. Circulation is becoming better-defined. That's precisely where and when I had been predicting all week - SW Caribbean when it slows down. Still not a Gulf threat, still not another Harvey...

[tolakram]

COD floater loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Deshaunrob17]

I guess this is going to be one of those seasons with lots of PTC days, at least early on like we have seen so far
This system may not get named until is almost in the Pacific where I am sure it will turn into a MH after crossing C.A.

Most PTC’s have taken FOREVER to develop I feel like. Once the NHC classifies it as a PTC the area always seems to just decide to start struggling and decides to take its sweet time

Lol yeah Isaias and Laura I remember

[Kingarabian]

I'm expecting an upgrade to Bonnie next hour. Circulation is becoming better-defined. That's precisely where and when I had been predicting all week - SW Caribbean when it slows down. Still not a Gulf threat, still not another Harvey...

Yeah the track is a lot more promising now that this won't be strong enough to feel any type of weakness. Just hard to be sure when it was still in the eastern Caribbean and the hurricane models taking a stacked system over the Yucatan instead of Honduras, 48 hours ago.

[wxman57]

Looks like NHC is waiting until this afternoon for the upgrade.

[cycloneye]

Looks like NHC is waiting until this afternoon for the upgrade.

Two planes are flying now.

[aspen]

If PTC2 is ever going to become anything significant before landfall or have a chance of surviving its crossover into the EPac, it needs to develop convection over its LLC fast. It’s possibly classifiable, but in a very poor state right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

If PTC2 is ever going to become anything significant before landfall or have a chance of surviving its crossover into the EPac, it needs to develop convection over its LLC fast. It’s possibly classifiable, but in a very poor state right now.

It probably will in the next few hours as it pulls away from land, that llc has really tightened up overnight. That said, if it doesn’t start firing by evening I’d say the chances of this reaching cat1 are next to none.

[Kingarabian]

If PTC2 is ever going to become anything significant before landfall or have a chance of surviving its crossover into the EPac, it needs to develop convection over its LLC fast. It’s possibly classifiable, but in a very poor state right now.

It probably will in the next few hours as it pulls away from land, that llc has really tightened up overnight. That said, if it doesn’t start firing by evening I’d say the chances of this reaching cat1 are next to none.

DMAX will make or break this system for good.