EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#121 Postby Nimbus » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:41 pm

I expected 94L to be kind of dried out near 40- 50 W but there is a wave ahead near 51 W moistening the environment. Time to go check the model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:43 pm

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic continues to
produce only limited shower activity. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system over the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward
Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:59 pm

Visioen wrote:Lol my brother lives in Nicaragua. Not along the coast though, he'll prob be fine.
Still would've liked for 94L to take it's business elsewhere.
We'll see.


Yes. Hopefully if it goes that way, is not as strong as Iota.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#124 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:48 pm

Sharp wave axis @ ~7N, with a sizeable area of westerlies. No model accurately depicts this as of the 18z cycle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#125 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:00 pm

Weatherwatcher2018 wrote:Do you guys think we in Barbados can have a repeat of Elsa last year with 94L


What are conditions like down there? Have heard an anecdote that the trades have been weak lately
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#126 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:37 pm

tops to -80C

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#127 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:41 pm

Firing some solid convection now, DMAX doing its thing. Will probably continue to pulse up and down for a few days before it fully gets going. Will probably head towards central America but its still gonna be dangerous, many of those areas are still recovering from Eta and Iota from 2020, they definitely don't need anything else coming their way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#128 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#129 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:24 am

ElectricStorm wrote:Firing some solid convection now, DMAX doing its thing. Will probably continue to pulse up and down for a few days before it fully gets going. Will probably head towards central America but its still gonna be dangerous, many of those areas are still recovering from Eta and Iota from 2020, they definitely don't need anything else coming their way.

Needs to also get away from the mid level shear. Has a chance to do that near 50W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#130 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:55 am

Code Red

1. Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this
week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#131 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:10 am

Gonna be entering a region with 5 knots of deep layer shear pretty soon...I expect this to at least aid in allowing the system to remain convectively active and allowing more organization

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#132 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:00 am

Deeper convection is building near the LLC;
Image

TXNT27 KNES 260550
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 26/0530Z

C. 7.8N

D. 40.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#133 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:08 am

94L is dealing with moderate easterly shear. The ongoing convection is displaced a little west of the surface/lower vorticity.. which has been gaining definition in recent hours. Mid level (500mb) signature is still very weak, and displaced from the column. Outflow is now trying to expand radially, but is a bit restricted E. Water vapor imagery depicts this quite clearly.

Image

Image





94L is quite the impressive wave for June.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#134 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:25 am

8 AM TWO.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
over the central tropical Atlantic continues to become better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early to the middle part of this week. This system is forecast to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach
the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward
Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#135 Postby USTropics » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:22 am

94L is trying to make a run at joining an exclusive club of systems that have formed east of the Caribbean in June. Early morning visible shows diurnal maximum has provided a decent envelope of convection this morning (more so than what 00z model runs showed), but there are still obstacles to overcome. Brisk trade wind surges directly to the north are evident (highlighted in blue) and it's typical for this to cause a few issues. For one, the rotation on the western, and particularly SW quadrant (highlighted in red), have a difficult time closing off. This creates an elongated circulation at the lower-mid levels (green), which is what 94L is currently exhibiting. In addition, there is evident dry air to the south and SE (yellow) given the convective cloud pattern and boundary line to the north. These are typical obstacles to overcome given current position even in August.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#136 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:33 am

12z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2022062612, , BEST, 0, 78N, 428W, 25, 1009, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#137 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:41 am

Curvature seen but shear remains to cause some separation of main convection from LLC.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#138 Postby 3090 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:49 am

Need to watch and see if the system in the NW GOM develops. If it does, its development could create a weakness in the ridge, thus allowing a more northerly track of 94L. Ultimately 94L could be in the central GOM come next weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#139 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:58 am

I don't think there is any threat to the GoM from 94L. It has a better chance of moving inland into South America than into the Gulf. The one thing that the weakened ridge over the Gulf may do is to keep 94L from burying itself into South America. Best chance of development will be west of 70W after passing the ABC Islands. The environment in the SW Caribbean should be quite favorable for development. For now, the rapid westerly motion is limiting low-level convergence.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#140 Postby toad strangler » Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:41 am

Aruba and Curaçao could be in for a rare event.
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