EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

That's a pretty bullish first forecast there from NHC considering this is a late June/early July storm, which is concerning to me because usually their initial forecasts for most storms are on the conservative side. Looks like there will be a fine line between this getting tangled up in SA or getting far enough north to potentially get something going.

[Visioen]

https://i.imgur.com/XiphbbB.png

Hey, I'm back after some time. I have been following everything for a bit and I'm quite surprised the NHC is already forecasting it to get to hurricane strength. Even if it's just because of the rarity of these storms (time of year in combination with the region of development). It would be quite spectacular.

Yesterday I had to work and wrote an article about it for a Dutch weather websit. Got some nice responses, even many of the weather amateurs here didn't know tropical storms developing in this area in June are rare. https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2022/waarschijnlijk-zeldzame-tropische-depressie-op-de-atlantische-oceaan

Awesome, first time I get to read a linked article in Dutch!
Goed gedaan man!

[Zonacane]

Since there's no well defined LLC and its possibly two broad circulations rotating around each other, the track might shift.

Hopefully, we don't get the same kind of northerly reformation that doomed us for Dorian

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Slowly getting there. Bonnie will be an interesting one to track for sure.

[Kingarabian]

That's a pretty bullish first forecast there from NHC considering this is a late June/early July storm, which is concerning to me because usually their initial forecasts for most storms are on the conservative side. Looks like there will be a fine line between this getting tangled up in SA or getting far enough north to potentially get something going.

Pretty reasonable IMO. The Caribbean doesn't look hostile. If it can keep off SA it has a chance.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/EJHpZ6B.jpg

Slowly getting there. Bonnie will be an interesting one to track for sure.

Looks like is gaining some latitude.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/EJHpZ6B.jpg

Slowly getting there. Bonnie will be an interesting one to track for sure.

Looks like is gaining some latitude.

It will be for the next 24 hours at least. How high north is the big question since after that, most models push it west or even west-south-west.

[Kingarabian]

NE lobe is looking convectively active this evening. Much more than the southern one.

[hipshot]

NE lobe is looking convectively active this evening. Much more than the southern one.
https://i.imgur.com/kauAtyW.gif

What is that narrow stream of clouds headed northeast from Puerto Rico, that sucker is moving (the jet stream?)

[wxman57]

I'm surprised at expected hurricane strength. They have the better modeling tools that maybe shows something we can't see. Latest euro shows a quick crossover into the EPAC, which is interesting.

I am somewhat surprised at that forecast for 65 kts. Only the GFS is indicating any significant development. I don't know if it'll close off an LLC until it gets near 75W. It may produce 35-40 kt winds north of the track, much of that due to the 20kt west movement. I dropped our forecast from my preliminary 50 kts last night to a max of 45 kts on the first advisory. I'm not convinced it'll ever really get going. Things can blow up quickly in the SW Caribbean as low-level easterlies decrease.

[wxman57]

NE lobe is looking convectively active this evening. Much more than the southern one.
https://i.imgur.com/kauAtyW.gif

What is that narrow stream of clouds headed northeast from Puerto Rico, that sucker is moving (the jet stream?)

Yes, the jet stream. That'll be what the disturbance behind PTC Two is heading for this weekend, which is why development chances are low.

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video on PTC2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AJR42ULfug

[skyline385]

I'm surprised at expected hurricane strength. They have the better modeling tools that maybe shows something we can't see. Latest euro shows a quick crossover into the EPAC, which is interesting.

I am somewhat surprised at that forecast for 65 kts. Only the GFS is indicating any significant development. I don't know if it'll close off an LLC until it gets near 75W. It may produce 35-40 kt winds north of the track, much of that due to the 20kt west movement. I dropped our forecast from my preliminary 50 kts last night to a max of 45 kts on the first advisory. I'm not convinced it'll ever really get going. Things can blow up quickly in the SW Caribbean as low-level easterlies decrease.

The hurricane models have been pretty bullish for a while and seeing how HMON was the most accurate model last year intensity wise, it probably carried a good weight in intensity estimate.

[WiscoWx02]

I'm surprised at expected hurricane strength. They have the better modeling tools that maybe shows something we can't see. Latest euro shows a quick crossover into the EPAC, which is interesting.

I am somewhat surprised at that forecast for 65 kts. Only the GFS is indicating any significant development. I don't know if it'll close off an LLC until it gets near 75W. It may produce 35-40 kt winds north of the track, much of that due to the 20kt west movement. I dropped our forecast from my preliminary 50 kts last night to a max of 45 kts on the first advisory. I'm not convinced it'll ever really get going. Things can blow up quickly in the SW Caribbean as low-level easterlies decrease.

I’m starting to think nothing really comes out of this either. I’ve always been kinda skeptical given the time of year but given that PTC2 is really disorganized still based on most recent satellite imagery and recon earlier today. Don’t see this being designated tomorrow or maybe even Wednesday at this point. Wouldn’t even be shocked if disruption of organization due to South America could prevent it from developing altogether but who knows, this is not anywhere near your typical situation for this time of year.

[Iceresistance]

I did not expect this, PTC 2 already! I expected it to become Bonnie after is crosses the Leeward Islands.

Could become the first ATL-EPAC crossover since Otto in 2016, but we need to wait and see on that part.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1541561622686117888

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm surprised at expected hurricane strength. They have the better modeling tools that maybe shows something we can't see. Latest euro shows a quick crossover into the EPAC, which is interesting.

I am somewhat surprised at that forecast for 65 kts. Only the GFS is indicating any significant development. I don't know if it'll close off an LLC until it gets near 75W. It may produce 35-40 kt winds north of the track, much of that due to the 20kt west movement. I dropped our forecast from my preliminary 50 kts last night to a max of 45 kts on the first advisory. I'm not convinced it'll ever really get going. Things can blow up quickly in the SW Caribbean as low-level easterlies decrease.

I’m starting to think nothing really comes out of this either. I’ve always been kinda skeptical given the time of year but given that PTC2 is really disorganized still based on most recent satellite imagery and recon earlier today. Don’t see this being designated tomorrow or maybe even Wednesday at this point. Wouldn’t even be shocked if disruption of organization due to South America could prevent it from developing altogether but who knows, this is not anywhere near your typical situation for this time of year.

Well, the thing is, the general consensus (that has also been consistent for a while) is that the Caribbean is expected to generally have low shear, and just because it looks disheveled right now does not mean that it will stay this way, especially considering DMAX is approaching. It's also ever so slightly seemingly gaining latitude, and direct strikes on South America from tropical systems are not very common in general. I personally would be very surprised if this failed to even form as you said, although I'm also not expecting something crazy like a Cat 4 Iota repeat lol

[ElectricStorm]

Latest BT, gaining slightly more latitude

02L TWO 220628 0000 8.5N 52.0W ATL 35 1009

[wxman57]

Well, the thing is, the general consensus (that has also been consistent for a while) is that the Caribbean is expected to generally have low shear, and just because it looks disheveled right now does not mean that it will stay this way, especially considering DMAX is approaching. It's also ever so slightly seemingly gaining latitude, and direct strikes on South America from tropical systems are not very common in general. I personally would be very surprised if this failed to even form as you said, although I'm also not expecting something crazy like a Cat 4 Iota repeat lol

Shear will decrease over the next month. Currently, the issue is the acceleration westward as it nears the Caribbean and proximity to South America. Once it moves past 75W, the low-level easterly trades drop off a good bit, allowing for low-level convergence to increase. Should be a relatively small storm, so it could strengthen quickly in the western Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

Well, the thing is, the general consensus (that has also been consistent for a while) is that the Caribbean is expected to generally have low shear, and just because it looks disheveled right now does not mean that it will stay this way, especially considering DMAX is approaching. It's also ever so slightly seemingly gaining latitude, and direct strikes on South America from tropical systems are not very common in general. I personally would be very surprised if this failed to even form as you said, although I'm also not expecting something crazy like a Cat 4 Iota repeat lol

Shear will decrease over the next month. Currently, the issue is the acceleration westward as it nears the Caribbean and proximity to South America. Once it moves past 75W, the low-level easterly trades drop off a good bit, allowing for low-level convergence to increase. Should be a relatively small storm, so it could strengthen quickly in the western Caribbean.

I think the issue for it would be land proximity. The globals keep it weak mainly for that reason. If some of the hurricane models solutions verify in keeping the center a 100/150 miles off the coast it may stack up in the Caribbean.

SHIPS gives this a 26% chance at gaining another 25kts in the next 24 hours. Nearly 20% chance in becoming a hurricane within 72 hours.