EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Looks like scrammbled eggs right now on satellite. GFS trending much weaker this afternoon.

[Kingarabian]

Regardless if it intensifies before the Caribbean or not, models are in good agreement that this will eventually be a hurricane. The Caribbean is open for business this year. Whether it enters the GOM or BOC will come down to the steering that we won't know until about 7 days from now.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like scrammbled eggs right now on satellite. GFS trending much weaker this afternoon.

Strongest GFS run since yesterday's 12z run.

[SFLcane]

Looks like scrammbled eggs right now on satellite. GFS trending much weaker this afternoon.

Strongest GFS run since yesterday's 12z run.

Yea i meant short term. Still looks like a mess on satellite.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like scrammbled eggs right now on satellite. GFS trending much weaker this afternoon.

Strongest GFS run since yesterday's 12z run.

Yea i meant short term. Still looks like a mess on satellite.

Yeah it probably won't become a full fledged TC until after 40W-ish.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like this'll be a similar timeframe to Elsa last year, but movement will be slower.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[wxman57]

Strongest GFS run since yesterday's 12z run.

Yea i meant short term. Still looks like a mess on satellite.

Yeah it probably won't become a full fledged TC until after 40W-ish.

...or west of 65W.

[Teban54]

Looks like this'll be a similar timeframe to Elsa last year, but movement will be slower.

And with much more model support of not just developing, but reaching hurricane intensity, Elsa's intensification to a hurricane came as a surprise.

[Blown Away]

Latest.

[aspen]

Looks like this'll be a similar timeframe to Elsa last year, but movement will be slower.

And with much more model support of not just developing, but reaching hurricane intensity, Elsa's intensification to a hurricane came as a surprise.

I remember the HWRF kept blowing Elsa up into a Cat 3 like Gonzalo the year before because of its western MDR/ECar bias, but I thought that a few other models also occasionally showed a hurricane.

Either way, I’m going to remain skeptical that 94L/Bonnie becomes anything more than a 70-80 kt Cat 1. If it takes a track similar to the CMC/ICON, its motion would be out of line with the trades and possibly cause shear like what happened to Elsa.

[Hurricane Mike]

Interesting that some models are showing a system forming near Texas, maybe a weak tropical storm. If that occurs, that could affect the ridging above 94L by the time the system would be in the Central or Western Caribbean. Another thing to monitor.

[Nimbus]

Interesting that some models are showing a system forming near Texas, maybe a weak tropical storm. If that occurs, that could affect the ridging above 94L by the time the system would be in the Central or Western Caribbean. Another thing to monitor.

At 10 day the GEM has this in central gulf moving NW but if the circulation calls for "weak and west" per GFS forecast it is probably bound for Mexico. They have oil rigs off Mexico though.

[wxman57]

One thing that is quite evident when comparing the 12Z GFS & Euro is that both indicate less development east of the Caribbean. I plotted the pressure field for each at 1mb increments and it was hard to locate a center until it reached the Caribbean. Also, most EC ensemble members have a quite far south track, similar to the operational. GFS ensembles are mostly all south of the operational run in the western Caribbean.

[jdjaguar]

We are headed to Playa del Carmen July 2nd.

yikes.

That one GFS run has that location square in the crosshairs. Hopefully the ridge will not be as strong, and potential Bonnie will head more northerly.

Just another thing to worry about.

[cycloneye]

Latest image.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week. This system is
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
and approach the Windward Islands by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that most of us knew that this probably wouldn't pose any threat to the USA MAINLAND due to it's southern trajectory and the expected ridging across the southern gulf states, but I think most of us are blown away by the strength and how early this TYPE of storm is forming, when you usually don't see this type of storm until mid August. I think that's what has everyone like me so concerned. We are looking at the future and thinking of what we might have in store for us...............

[zzh]

[zzh]