EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.

Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.

Oh I know I’ll probably be eating some of my words in a few months, but like how early 2017 was notable for all of its shorties, early 2022 will probably be infamous for its ridiculous PTC days. Maybe Colin will surpass PTC2’s duration record.

It’s still incredible how 2017 went from the season with the lowest ACE for its first 5 storms, to ending up at 224 ACE and shattering multiple high ACE records.

[aspen]

A hot tower just popped up on the NE side of PTC2’s circulation. Maybe this is the start of its recovery and intensification? It has another 28-32 hours left.

[FireRat]

A hot tower just popped up on the NE side of PTC2’s circulation. Maybe this is the start of its recovery and intensification? It has another 28-32 hours left.

Guess we'll see, not much time left and the NHC this year seems to be more conservative than past seasons, they really don't seem to want to name systems that are too borderline like in the past 2 years. Would not surprise me to never see Bonnie out of this storm at this rate.

[Teban54]

This has been a very annoying season so far with Alex and now PTC-2. It’s taking forever for these systems to develop, and model intensity (and to a lesser extent track) has not verified well at all. I remember some models were showing PTC-2 to be several degrees further east today than it is now, and intensification has kept on being pushed back for the last week. PTC days will probably exceed actual named storm days until things kick into gear in August.

Not sure why PTC-2 isn’t developing convection despite pulling away from land (inflow shouldn’t be hindered as much) and remaining in a moist, warm environment.

I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.

Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.

Oh I know I’ll probably be eating some of my words in a few months, but like how early 2017 was notable for all of its shorties, early 2022 will probably be infamous for its ridiculous PTC days. Maybe Colin will surpass PTC2’s duration record.

It’s still incredible how 2017 went from the season with the lowest ACE for its first 5 storms, to ending up at 224 ACE and shattering multiple high ACE records.

Random fact: 2017 is also the only year (so far) when a PTC did not develop into a tropical cyclone.

[aspen]

I can remember some very similar comments in the early 2017 season. Careful what you wish for, haha.

Should see convection getting into the core in a few hours. As you mentioned, a lot of the inflow will be moving offshore soon, but also, the inflow over land should start moistening as daytime heating fires off diurnal convection. Already starting to see that now.

Oh I know I’ll probably be eating some of my words in a few months, but like how early 2017 was notable for all of its shorties, early 2022 will probably be infamous for its ridiculous PTC days. Maybe Colin will surpass PTC2’s duration record.

It’s still incredible how 2017 went from the season with the lowest ACE for its first 5 storms, to ending up at 224 ACE and shattering multiple high ACE records.

Random fact: 2017 is also the only year (so far) when a PTC did not develop into a tropical cyclone.

There was also PTC-17E in 2019 that failed to become a TC, and it was one of only a few systems to be designated as a PTC in the East Pacific.

[WiscoWx02]

A hot tower just popped up on the NE side of PTC2’s circulation. Maybe this is the start of its recovery and intensification? It has another 28-32 hours left.

Guess we'll see, not much time left and the NHC this year seems to be more conservative than past seasons, they really don't seem to want to name systems that are too borderline like in the past 2 years. Would not surprise me to never see Bonnie out of this storm at this rate.

I think you are probably right on that…really starting to doubt this ever gets its act together, if it’s not one thing its the other, no circulation but convection, now circulation but no convection.

Edit: WAIT…perhaps I spoke too soon…convection picking up a tad…maybe sundown will work it’s normal magic

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

I wasnt expecting any significant development until it got to 75W....and now we are there.

Obviously its forward speed will hinder development, but still think it will be a bonafide tropical storm before landfall.

Edit to add:

Also happy to see there is no more talk of this making it to the GoM anymore

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on PTC 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhoZK8IqlBM

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey guys it’s doing that thing

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing how this will become anything more than a 55 knot TS, but we'll see.

[aspen]

Hey guys it’s doing that thing

It only took, what, a week to finally get there. Took good advantage of an unusually favorable late June environment. /s

[ElectricStorm]

Finally starting to get some convection, should see Bonnie pretty soon I would think. Probably won't be able to get to hurricane strength but it might become a decent TS before landfall. Better chance of a hurricane in the EPAC

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Still no upgrade though. Maybe tonight

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[Hammy]

Ironically recon indicates there's no longer a closed circulation like there was earlier.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is literally like watching paint dry lol. When it was first designated near the Antilles, it had some distance before forecasts called for it to become a tropical storm. It kept on delaying and delaying and delaying it. What even caused it to not become a NS? Was it merely just because of how fast it was going?

Also, assuming this does not get a name in the Atlantic, does that mean it will have a lower chance of becoming a NS in the EPAC too? I don't see any AOIs highlighted in the far eastern EPAC in the NHC's graphic at least

[WiscoWx02]

Ironically recon indicates there's no longer a closed circulation like there was earlier.

Go figure. Bonnie is gonna have to wait until mid August at this rate.

[tolakram]

Should have never even gotten to this point in June, so in my opinion it's behaving more like expected. A low latitude wave that does not develop until it reaches the EPAC.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542659728848916481