EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1541579634281693186

[ElectricStorm]

Updated cone

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

Convection going off in the SW, wonder if this is what the slower HWRF was hinting at

[ScottNAtlanta]

The Eastern Caribbean is the graveyard for a reason. If it gets close to the coast it will suck in dry continental air which will hinder development

[Sciencerocks]

I think PTC2 has only about 30% chance of closing off the defined LLC before hitting the unfavorable eastern southern Caribbean that makes quick work of such systems this time of the year. It will most likely remain a ptc until it moves back over the southwestern Caribbean and probably will make landfall with 45-50 knot winds. We'll have to watch for a cross over. Once in the Pacific it'll probably become a hurricane.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks slightly better tonight, blowing up concentrated convention near 10 north
Still has a shot before the islands I believe.

[Visioen]

I think PTC2 has only about 30% chance of closing off the defined LLC before hitting the unfavorable eastern southern Caribbean that makes quick work of such systems this time of the year. It will most likely remain a ptc until it moves back over the southwestern Caribbean and probably will make landfall with 45-50 knot winds. We'll have to watch for a cross over. Once in the Pacific it'll probably become a hurricane.

'This time of the year' doesn't really matter if conditions are not typical for this time of the year - no upper westerlies. Still strong trades though.

[Kingarabian]

Convection this evening has been concentrated to the NW.

[Nimbus]

Convection has been persistent a little further north than the 0Z models have it initialized.
Might enter the Caribbean near Grenada if that is really a COC forming there.

[Kingarabian]

Convection has been persistent a little further north than the 0Z models have it initialized.
Might enter the Caribbean near Grenada if that is really a COC forming there.

If it does that it probably will be a deeper system than forecast. Deeper system and then the GOM could be back in play.

[MGC]

PTC2 is trucking along...going to be hard to close off a circulation. Land interaction with South America should also hinder development. Doubt it is upgraded until the Western Caribbean......MGC

[IsabelaWeather]

PTC2 is trucking along...going to be hard to close off a circulation. Land interaction with South America should also hinder development. Doubt it is upgraded until the Western Caribbean......MGC

This seems to be a problem, why have waves been moving so fast lately? is 20mph common?

[aspen]

PTC2 is trucking along...going to be hard to close off a circulation. Land interaction with South America should also hinder development. Doubt it is upgraded until the Western Caribbean......MGC

This seems to be a problem, why have waves been moving so fast lately? is 20mph common?

Typical for this location and time of year because the trade winds are stronger. If this was August 28th instead of June 28th, then PTC2 would be moving slower.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very strong convection is occurring near the top of the wave. This is the strongest convection that this system has produced in its life.

[wxman57]

Looks like recon found a little eddy near 9.7N/56.6W. Strongest winds (35 kts) were about 100 miles NW. This system will be struggling to maintain an LLC for the next 2-3 days. I'm still skeptical of hurricane intensity Friday.

[RT23]

Look like an interesting area of vort around 11N, 57W...what say you guys, competing for COC?

[Deshaunrob17]

PTC2 is trucking along...going to be hard to close off a circulation. Land interaction with South America should also hinder development. Doubt it is upgraded until the Western Caribbean......MGC

This seems to be a problem, why have waves been moving so fast lately? is 20mph common?

Trust me 20 mph is weak for that area for this time of the year. I’ve seen tropical storms in that region move 30mph (Bret)

[IsabelaWeather]

PTC2 is trucking along...going to be hard to close off a circulation. Land interaction with South America should also hinder development. Doubt it is upgraded until the Western Caribbean......MGC

This seems to be a problem, why have waves been moving so fast lately? is 20mph common?

Trust me 20 mph is weak for that area for this time of the year. I’ve seen tropical storms in that region move 30mph (Bret)

I mean, 23mph is pretty close to 30mph. Also, I wasnt saying it couldnt form because of that, but slower is much better. I remember last year the waves were screaming as well.

[weeniepatrol]

This seems to be a problem, why have waves been moving so fast lately? is 20mph common?

Yeah 15-20 kt is about climo for June to August, anywhere east of the western Caribbean. Even then it’s not always destructive; Allen of 1980 become very intense while traveling at 20 kt