EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Healthy wave axis. If it does remain convectively active during dmin, then cyclogenesis will have likely begun. 5knots of shear should help with that along with a moist environment left behind by the wave in front of 94L. Looks better than Hurricane Barry.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still looks pretty blobby to me. I think we're a while away from TC genesis.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The LLC looks a little farther north than it did last night (last I looked). That might be because it is a little more stretched out though.

[Sciencerocks]

[3090]

I don't think there is any threat to the GoM from 94L. It has a better chance of moving inland into South America than into the Gulf. The one thing that the weakened ridge over the Gulf may do is to keep 94L from burying itself into South America. Best chance of development will be west of 70W after passing the ABC Islands. The environment in the SW Caribbean should be quite favorable for development. For now, the rapid westerly motion is limiting low-level convergence.

We shall see.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

It looks like it’s staying well south of Barbados am I wrong ?

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1541085182299500549

[cycloneye]

2 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early to the middle part of this week.
This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward
Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea
on Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

This a wide angle loop of 94L. and the 2 waves behind it in Snow/Ice band to show the motion of the clouds, the white clouds are the low level clouds.

Source - https://col.st/kt9lK

[Kingarabian]

Overall its been doing better since it passed 40W. It's been able to sustain convection today through DMIN. DMAX is like 7 hours away so IF IT maintains then we'll probably have a TD by tomorrow morning.
Models will probably have to adjust some if this approaches the island as a TS instead of a open wave.

[wxman57]

Still on-track today. May not do much until it passes the ABC Islands on Thursday. Most likely a TS into Nicaragua Friday night or Saturday. 12Z GFS looks way too slow, taking it inland 12Z Sunday.

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2022062618, , BEST, 0, 79N, 448W, 30, 1007, DB

[Kingarabian]

AL, 94, 2022062618, , BEST, 0, 79N, 448W, 30, 1007, DB

They could go straight to TS at this point whenever they think its ready.

[3090]

Still on-track today. May not do much until it passes the ABC Islands on Thursday. Most likely a TS into Nicaragua Friday night or Saturday. 12Z GFS looks way too slow, taking it inland 12Z Sunday.

Some long term ensemble models are showing a northerly trend. Maybe more into the northern Yucatan.

[psyclone]

These super low riders are always interesting and rare...especially this time of year. It's probably going to be tough for this thing to end up north of Cabo Gracias a dios...Looks Nicaragua bound long term

[wxman57]

Still on-track today. May not do much until it passes the ABC Islands on Thursday. Most likely a TS into Nicaragua Friday night or Saturday. 12Z GFS looks way too slow, taking it inland 12Z Sunday.

Some long term ensemble models are showing a northerly trend. Maybe more into the northern Yucatan.

Fewer ensemble members with each model cycle are indicating any Gulf threat. Looks like only 3 of the EC's 51 members take it north of Belize. Same number of GFS ensemble members (out of 30). The trend in these outlier members is farther south with each run. This is not a central Gulf threat.

[Sciencerocks]

[Blown Away]

Still on-track today. May not do much until it passes the ABC Islands on Thursday. Most likely a TS into Nicaragua Friday night or Saturday. 12Z GFS looks way too slow, taking it inland 12Z Sunday.

Some long term ensemble models are showing a northerly trend. Maybe more into the northern Yucatan.

.
Fewer ensemble members with each model cycle are indicating any Gulf threat. Looks like only 3 of the EC's 51 members take it north of Belize. Same number of GFS ensemble members (out of 30). The trend in these outlier members is farther south with each run. This is not a central Gulf threat.

Intensity guidance trending down over past few runs.

[aspen]

Some long term ensemble models are showing a northerly trend. Maybe more into the northern Yucatan.

.
Fewer ensemble members with each model cycle are indicating any Gulf threat. Looks like only 3 of the EC's 51 members take it north of Belize. Same number of GFS ensemble members (out of 30). The trend in these outlier members is farther south with each run. This is not a central Gulf threat.

Intensity guidance trending down over past few runs.

Not that much though. The only models with noteworthy intensity estimate decreases are the Euro (only a TS in today’s 12z run) and SHIPS (low C3 instead of a low C4). The GFS, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON still agree on a strong TS or C1 hurricane in the SWCar and/or at landfall; I don’t expect anything more than a C2.