EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

40kt winds so far found by Recon. Just need a circulation.

Enhanced by trade winds. It’s usually easy to find tropical storm force winds in these disturbances thanks to the trades on the north side. I don’t see it having an organized low yet, just judging by satellite.

Agreed. Just need recon to uh... actually breach the suspected center to see what we have though.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 700 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely
to form during the next day or so before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system and
has found winds to tropical storm force. Interests in the Windward
Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor
the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of these areas later today.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday
night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cheezyWXguy]

I doubt recon is going to find a tight closed circulation at this point, judging by satellite. However, that big inflow channel from the SW on the southeastern side, makes me think thats the portion of the disturbance where it will eventually occur.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1541485514326511627

[wxman57]

Whether it is called 94L, PTC Two, or Bonnie, the effects will be the same as it reaches the islands. Some 35kt sustained wind on the north side and about 15kts south of the track. Periods of heavy rain and squalls for Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning as it passes. It will have a hard time generating or maintaining an LLC as it races west along the coast of SA Wed/Thu. Best chance of strengthening is Friday in the SW Caribbean, prior to moving inland into Nicaragua and dissipating there.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Whether it is called 94L, PTC Two, or Bonnie, the effects will be the same as it reaches the islands. Some 35kt sustained wind on the north side and about 15kts south of the track. Periods of heavy rain and squalls for Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning as it passes. It will have a hard time generating or maintaining an LLC as it races west along the coast of SA Wed/Thu. Best chance of strengthening is Friday in the SW Caribbean, prior to moving inland into Nicaragua and dissipating there.

Any impacts for Barbados ? It’s pouring here currently and a bit windy

[ouragans]

Whether it is called 94L, PTC Two, or Bonnie, the effects will be the same as it reaches the islands. Some 35kt sustained wind on the north side and about 15kts south of the track. Periods of heavy rain and squalls for Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning as it passes. It will have a hard time generating or maintaining an LLC as it races west along the coast of SA Wed/Thu. Best chance of strengthening is Friday in the SW Caribbean, prior to moving inland into Nicaragua and dissipating there.

Any impacts for Barbados ? It’s pouring here currently and a bit windy

94L is 720 miles away from Barbados, not expected before tomorrow. It cannot be that

[NDG]

Recon so far only shows a sharp trough of low pressure, no defined LLC.

[wxman57]

As expected, no LLC. Small eddy way to the south. Tropical waves can easily product 35-45 kt winds on the north side, particularly when they're moving quickly westward.

[Kingarabian]

Theres a couple of rotating areas within the envelope.

[Stormybajan]

Whether it is called 94L, PTC Two, or Bonnie, the effects will be the same as it reaches the islands. Some 35kt sustained wind on the north side and about 15kts south of the track. Periods of heavy rain and squalls for Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning as it passes. It will have a hard time generating or maintaining an LLC as it races west along the coast of SA Wed/Thu. Best chance of strengthening is Friday in the SW Caribbean, prior to moving inland into Nicaragua and dissipating there.

Any impacts for Barbados ? It’s pouring here currently and a bit windy

Honestly after seeing it yesterday and very early this morning I was beginning to doubt much would happen with 94L PRE-islands but its trying to atleast break free of the ITCZ right now and convection has been maintained throughout the entire day, DMAX should spark it off as it nears 52 W tonight. For us in Barbados 94L seems to be a bit south for us to get any serious RAIN impacts but as recon showed it looks like the strongest winds are on the northern side of the wave's envelope so I think we should expect some gusty winds starting tomorrow night and for most of Wednesday imo. The one behind 94L might be more of a rain event for us

[AtlanticWind]

PTC 2 according to nhc

Advisories At 5pm

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1541513829800062976

[cycloneye]

[Jelmergraaff]

https://i.imgur.com/XiphbbB.png

Hey, I'm back after some time. I have been following everything for a bit and I'm quite surprised the NHC is already forecasting it to get to hurricane strength. Even if it's just because of the rarity of these storms (time of year in combination with the region of development). It would be quite spectacular.

Yesterday I had to work and wrote an article about it for a Dutch weather websit. Got some nice responses, even many of the weather amateurs here didn't know tropical storms developing in this area in June are rare. https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2022/waarschijnlijk-zeldzame-tropische-depressie-op-de-atlantische-oceaan

[Category5Kaiju]

It's almost surreal to see the forecast cone with an "H" near Nicaragua, given the last time I saw an "H" headed toward that country was in November of 2020. While this storm will almost certainly not be as strong, it sure brings back interesting tracking memories.

[Kingarabian]

Since there's no well defined LLC and its possibly two broad circulations rotating around each other, the track might shift.

[tolakram]

I'm surprised at expected hurricane strength. They have the better modeling tools that maybe shows something we can't see. Latest euro shows a quick crossover into the EPAC, which is interesting.

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/XiphbbB.png

This really wants to be Cesar-Douglas 1996 2.0 it seems.

[Jelmergraaff]

Since there's no well defined LLC and its possibly two broad circulations rotating around each other, the track might shift.

I figure that could be quite important. It would of course make quite a difference in terms of strengthening potential whether the center stays over water or that it just crosses over the South-American coast. That probably makes the intensity forecast rather uncertain.