EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#521 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:58 am

My Bonnie was in the Atlantic
My Bonnie kept moving you see...
My Bonnie's now in the Pacific
Where a hurricane she will be...

(I figured someone ought to do this)
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#522 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:14 am

Models blew it with this system even the mighty GFS and Euro which had this as a hurricane at one point in the eastern Caribbean. Looks like it should become a formidable hurricane in the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#523 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:43 am

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#524 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:08 am

tolakram wrote:The way I read it the Atlantic will get the ACE until the header changes to EPAC, at which time all new ACE will go towards the EPAC.
What about the Hurricane/Major count? I am guessing that would be attributed to the EPAC as well which would be kinda weird since the storm would be from the NATL list.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#525 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:23 am

Wow, almost intact after crossing CA.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#526 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:59 am

cycloneye wrote:Wow, almost intact after crossing CA.

https://i.imgur.com/5OX2Vq5.jpg

Those HWRF/HMON runs showing a mostly intact eyewall/inner core after Central America have verified very well in the short term. We could see a period of significant intensification starting in the next 24-36 hours as Bonnie pulls away from Central America.
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Re: RE: Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#527 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:19 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow, almost intact after crossing CA.

https://i.imgur.com/5OX2Vq5.jpg

Those HWRF/HMON runs showing a mostly intact eyewall/inner core after Central America have verified very well in the short term. We could see a period of significant intensification starting in the next 24-36 hours as Bonnie pulls away from Central America.
HAFS 0Z was bearish on it even with the core intact because it took a more northerly route compared to the others. We will find out soon which way Bonnie goes.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#528 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:42 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#529 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:48 am

Image

Looks like somebody isn't in the correct basin lol
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#530 Postby kevin » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:59 am

Now officially the first Atl->Pac crossover since Otto in 2016 and only the 2nd one of its kind this century. Interesting to note that it's also the first time that an Atl->Pac crossover only peaked as a tropical storm in the Atlantic. In all previous cases the storm reached at least cat 1 strength before the crossover.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#531 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:29 pm

The place where Bonnie passed over from the Atlantic to Pacific is relatively flat, no major mountains or volcanoes to disrupt it and the area is forest, lakes and marshes. Pretty much the ideal place.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#532 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:35 pm

I don’t think this is going to take long to reach hurricane status
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#533 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:37 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/71q0qll.png

Looks like somebody isn't in the correct basin lol


Bonnie: "What happened? Where am I? This doesn't look like the Atlantic!" :lol:
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#534 Postby cainjamin » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:47 pm

Looks like the inner core is reestablishing itself quite quickly. Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane sooner than currently forecast
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#535 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:52 pm

I think this becomes a hurricane much earlier than Tuesday.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#536 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:53 pm

So far Bonnie is closely following the short-term structural evolution forecast by yesterday’s HWRF runs, with an eye-like feature appearing due to some displaced convection despite remaining around 1000mb. Once deep convection re-establishes itself over Bonnie’s core, it’ll likely take off before an increase in shear in a few days.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#537 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:57 pm

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#538 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:07 pm

Already has an eye-like feature apparent. Should really start blowing up now.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#539 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:08 pm

Thanks Bonnie for messing up the alphabets!

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#540 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 1:10 pm

Closeup view of the aparent eye feature.

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