EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

There’s a large expanding hot tower of <-80C convection over Bonnie’s tiny core. The next pass might be a few mbar lower.

This structure would’ve been ripe for RI into a major (or close to one) if Bonnie had formed a day or two ago. CA dodged a potentially large bullet this time.

You were right, almost 2.5mb drop in 50 mins

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220702/b9e0a6b5eb3cd5bed6876505240970de.jpg

Looks like this pass (and some additional data) supports 45-50 kt and 996-997mb. This might get to high end TS status before landfall.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1543034240433995776

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

You could argue that Bonnie is a 50 kt TS right now, or will be one at landfall. Looks like its pressure has stabilized at 997mb, though.

Do we know if there will be any recon flights once it’s in the EPac? It’ll remain relatively close to Mexico, and it would be great to have recon coverage if it tries to rapidly intensify again.

[MarioProtVI]

And we have landfall. 50/997, but could’ve been worse had it gotten its act together a day or two ago, given the fact it looked like it was right on the verge of beginning to intensify quickly looking at the satellite and microwave data.

[cycloneye]

Have a question about the ACE. When Bonnie is in the Pacific, will the ACE count continue for the North Atlantic or will be for EPAC?

[galaxy401]

Have a question about the ACE. When Bonnie is in the Pacific, will the ACE count continue for the North Atlantic or will be for EPAC?

Since it's in the EPAC, I imagine they will add the ACE for that respective basin.

[Hurricane Mike]

We have landfall! Looks like she was forming an eye.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XN5-J4xFovA

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Kind of surprised they didn't go 50kt given the 61kt FL recorded at 850 mb (which would translate to about 50kt at the surface) and the multiple unflagged SFMR readings between 45 and 50kt. Plus, it seemed that the storm was still improving in terms of organization, even if pressure drops temporarily slowed down. Might be something that gets a second look in the TCR.

Given how warm Lake Nicaragua is and how narrow the land that the storm is crossing (plus how relatively low topography-wise compared to the rest of Central America it is), I wouldn't be shocked to see this remain a TS all the way into the East Pacific. Had the system received another 12 hours or so over water this would've been a hurricane. Hopefully, this system will cooperate for once and stay away from land once it becomes a hurricane in the Pacific; the environment and the SSTs are both generally favorable for the next 2-3 days out there.

[AtlanticWind]

Ok Bonnie leave us for the Pacific ocean .. see if we care.

[MarioProtVI]

Kind of surprised they didn't go 50kt given the 61kt FL recorded at 850 mb (which would translate to about 50kt at the surface) and the multiple unflagged SFMR readings between 45 and 50kt. Plus, it seemed that the storm was still improving in terms of organization, even if pressure drops temporarily slowed down. Might be something that gets a second look in the TCR.

Given how warm Lake Nicaragua is and how narrow the land that the storm is crossing (plus how relatively low topography-wise compared to the rest of Central America it is), I wouldn't be shocked to see this remain a TS all the way into the East Pacific. Had the system received another 12 hours or so over water this would've been a hurricane. Hopefully, this system will cooperate for once and stay away from land once it becomes a hurricane in the Pacific; the environment and the SSTs are both generally favorable for the next 2-3 days out there.

Their wording in the recent discussion suggests they may up the landfall intensity to 50 kt in post-analysis.

[AnnularCane]

Ok Bonnie leave us for the Pacific ocean .. see if we care.

The Atlantic has too much land.

[CrazyC83]

Score one for the models the last few days. They correctly predicted a storm that would struggle until approach, then rapidly intensify. I agree that 50 kt was likely the intensity at landfall, and if it had 12 more hours it likely would have become a hurricane.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, this likely will not be the first time a crossover storm becomes more powerful in its non-native basin; we saw this with Cesar, which would have kept its name and go on to become a Cat 4 hurricane in the EPAC had the current naming rules applied back then.

I'm also still waiting for the future season where an EPAC-named system survives a crossover into the Atlantic and then becomes a monster in the Atlantic and a retirement-worthy name, haha. I think that would hypothetically and arguably be one of the strangest and most memorable things to ever see, at least for those who predominantly love to track Atlantic systems lol

[galaxy401]

Interestingly, this likely will not be the first time a crossover storm becomes more powerful in its non-native basin; we saw this with Cesar, which would have kept its name and go on to become a Cat 4 hurricane in the EPAC had the current naming rules applied back then.

I'm also still waiting for the future season where an EPAC-named system survives a crossover into the Atlantic and then becomes a monster in the Atlantic and a retirement-worthy name, haha. I think that would hypothetically and arguably be one of the strangest and most memorable things to ever see, at least for those who predominantly love to track Atlantic systems lol

Hermine in 2010 was the closest it got. Formed as a TD in the Pacific then became a strong tropical storm in the Atlantic. It actually did decent damage but not enough for retirement.

[cycloneye]

Will retain the name and ACE will count for North Atlantic.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

[SteveM]

Will retain the name and ACE will count for North Atlantic.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

Can't see anything regarding ACE in the quote there, am I missing something? Would be strange for ACE to count for the ATL when it's in the EPAC.

[aspen]

There’s a chance that Bonnie could end up as the strongest EPac storm so far (or maybe for the entire season if the higher end intensity forecasts verify), which would be funny because it’s the one EPac system not from the EPac.

[tolakram]

The way I read it the Atlantic will get the ACE until the header changes to EPAC, at which time all new ACE will go towards the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Officially in EPAC.

EP, 04, 2022070212, , BEST, 0, 112N, 858W, 35, 1000, TS