EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/FLweather_wx/status/1541912685381558273

[cycloneye]

A 74 mph gust was reported in Grenada.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1541890565679321093

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1541919741597880320



Piarco International Airport in Trinidad and Tobago reported NW wind of 3 mph at 21Z. Probably has a surface circulation now.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 02, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 106N, 612W, 35, 1011, DB

[wxman57]

Peak winds on Trinidad 15 kts this afternoon. Tobago had a gust to 35 kts at 1835Z. Winds are calm in Trinidad (TTPP) now. Accuweather has a good radar from Trinidad. Quite good banding on radar, but that's a mid-level rotation. Zero evidence of a LLC on surface obs. I don't see how it will strengthen as it rakes the coast of SA over the next 36 hours.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/tt/national/weather-radar

[arizona_sooner]

I was just on the phone with a friend in central Trinidad. Not a whole lot of rain/wind there at all. Only a little rain in south Trinidad according to my step-daughter earlier this evening. It appears to be just a small amount of rain and wind for them, pretty much normal for the wet season. Maybe some heavier rain tomorrow with the trailing part of the system.

[aspen]

Lots of hot towers going up in the last hour. Maybe this’ll be enough to translate the MLC down to the surface overnight.

[hurricanes1234]

I was just on the phone with a friend in central Trinidad. Not a whole lot of rain/wind there at all. Only a little rain in south Trinidad according to my step-daughter earlier this evening. It appears to be just a small amount of rain and wind for them, pretty much normal for the wet season. Maybe some heavier rain tomorrow with the trailing part of the system.

Yes I'm from Diego Martin and it seems like people are starting to grow sceptical now since the orange alert began at 8 PM and there has barely been a drop of rain anywhere since. Shelters were opened, schools were closed and people were stocking up on gas and supplies all day. The roads were a mess.

As wxman57 said, there hasn't been any storm-force wind either in most places all day, particularly near Port of Spain. Right now, it's completely calm.

Earlier today, some areas saw heavy rainfall but it was patchy. Also as you were saying, nothing drastically different from what an ordinary wet season day would bring. I guess we'll see if more storms fire up overnight during diurnal maximum.

[MarioProtVI]

If it doesn’t consolidate tonight I don’t expect them to name it until at least Friday because of Venezuelan airspace forbidding recon from entering their zone (where POTC 2 is heading) and they’ll be very picky naming it without enough evidence to consider it.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I was just on the phone with a friend in central Trinidad. Not a whole lot of rain/wind there at all. Only a little rain in south Trinidad according to my step-daughter earlier this evening. It appears to be just a small amount of rain and wind for them, pretty much normal for the wet season. Maybe some heavier rain tomorrow with the trailing part of the system.

Yeah - south side was very limited in terms of convection and wind compared to further north. Center of the system appeared to have passed either over or just north of Tobago, and a hurricane-force wind gust was recorded on Grenada, along with other TS-force sustained winds and gusts on nearby islands.  https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1541869591273607169




The system as a whole is still somewhat disorganized but surface OBS, radar, and cloud motions seem to indicate we have a developing LLC WSW of Grenada. Might be enough to get named by the next recon flight or even sooner, if convection continues firing near it. Definitely further north than where most models have it, which could have big implications for the strength and track of this system down the line.

Time to cloud-watch!

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm very impressed by the anti-cyclone the wave is building over the top of it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't know how much this can organize moving at 23kts to the west. There does, however, seem to be a circulation drilling down to the surface west of Grenada.
With these systems the weather is mostly on the north side.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Granted Harvey was about 100 miles off the coast of SA, But we can't forget models were forecasting something like this



Hopefully land interaction limits its chances in gaining a coherent LLC.

[CrazyC83]

If this was moving slower and it was August, I think this would be a much bigger deal. The 25 mph forward speed does not help a developing system at all.

[Category5Kaiju]

With this system, and Elsa, and countless other June/July systems historically in the Atlantic, what I've just started to realize is how having little dry air, low shear, and very wam ssts in the Caribbean are still not enough for a decent system, especially if this system travels at 20+ mph speeds. I think this linear speed disadvantage is one of the main reasons, if not the main reason, aside from shear, dry air, and sst, why it's so hard to get a major Caribbean system in June and July. This really shows how 2005 was in a divine, hellish realm of its own to have a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 during a time when storms should, at the very most, struggle to really develop into anything major thanks to the sheer speed at which they travel.

[CrazyC83]

With this system, and Elsa, and countless other June/July systems historically in the Atlantic, what I've just started to realize is how having little dry air, low shear, and very wam ssts in the Caribbean are still not enough for a decent system, especially if this system travels at 20+ mph speeds. I think this linear speed disadvantage is one of the main reasons, if not the main reason, aside from shear, dry air, and sst, why it's so hard to get a major Caribbean system in June and July. This really shows how 2005 was in a divine, hellish realm of its own to have a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 during a time when storms should, at the very most, struggle to really develop into anything major thanks to the sheer speed at which they travel.

There are always the odd exceptions: Charley in 2004 managed to take off despite moving at a quick clip. But that was exceptional. Unlike at higher latitudes, there is no baroclinic forcing or trough divergence in the deep tropics that can offset a fast forward speed.

[cycloneye]

Looks ready to be classified as TS Bonnie but has to have a LLC.