EPAC: BONNIE - Models

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aspen
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#121 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:00 pm

12z HWRF is showing lots more convection developing tonight. If that happens, a 60-70 kt system is possible. If PTC2/Bonnie remains anemic, then a low end TS with minimal chances of surviving into the EPac is the most likely scenario.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#122 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:50 pm

Points to gfs for being conservative. I had a feeling the EPS was too bullish. Seems like a recurring theme with Aftican Waves ( Isaias, Elsa, PTC2)
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#123 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:25 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:Points to gfs for being conservative. I had a feeling the EPS was too bullish. Seems like a recurring theme with Aftican Waves ( Isaias, Elsa, PTC2)

Isaias and Elsa went too north and had trouble with the Greater Antilles (kinda for Isaias), or just took a while to consolidate over open water. PTC2 is a far different case — every model was too far north, and most were too slow. If PTC2 were a little further north, we probably would have seen TS Bonnie form on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Usually, the models are too far south. I forget if Elsa or Isaias were originally modeled to be true Caribbean Crusiers, but I do remember storms like Teddy and Sam were shown to enter the eastern Caribbean like Maria during some of their earlier model runs.
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Re: ATL: TWO - Models

#124 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:10 pm

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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Models

#125 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:43 pm

The 18z HWRF and HMON blow Bonnie up into a at 4 on the 4th of July. In both runs, it goes over a patch of 30-31C SSTs off the coast of Mexico, triggering RI after its internal structure had recovered. Bonnie reaches 962mb/115kt on the HWRF and 943mb/125 kt on the HMON.
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EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#126 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:10 am

Bonnie could be a pretty little annular cane like Felicia if 06Z HWRF verifiesImage

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#127 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:21 am

A bearish HAFS 0Z has it taking a northerly track, am curious to see how this ends up. ImageImage

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#128 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:18 am

Looks like the 0Z run was an anomaly, 06Z seems to be doing much better more in line with HWRF and the rest.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 2:17 pm

NHC will nudge up the peak intensity to cat 2 on next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#130 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 02, 2022 2:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:NHC will nudge up the peak intensity to cat 2 on next advisory.
https://i.imgur.com/bFJiWm9.png


No that’s just the last advisory forecast plus takes into account the higher initial intensity IIRC.
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EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#131 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:00 pm

The RI 30kt is way up.

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#132 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:58 pm

The 12z hurricane models have vastly different solutions on Bonnie’s short-term structural evolution. HWRF has this EWRC completing successfully, with a nice big eye clearing tomorrow. HMON erodes the inner core tonight, and it only briefly recovers on Thursday.
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