EPAC: BONNIE - Models

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cycloneye
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EPAC: BONNIE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:33 pm

Only model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:46 pm

Presented without comment....

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby IcyTundra » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:50 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:Presented without comment....

https://i.imgur.com/yVUZxLY.png


Shear isn’t too bad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:08 pm



Goodness looks even moister and lower-shear than 18z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:30 pm

Image

:double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:34 pm

18z GEFS..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby skyline385 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:59 pm

Northerly ICON run

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:05 pm

skyline385 wrote:Northerly ICON run

https://i.imgur.com/iCrMqDm.png


Is that a depression off of the Texas coast over Houston? :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby weeniepatrol » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:23 pm

Image

Image

? ? ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:29 pm

Yeah poor initialization on this 00z GFS run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:36 pm

It seems like the GFS has a habit of being overly sensitive with marginal RH in the MDR/SAL, which may be to blame for this poor initialization.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:55 pm

CMC has is it passing just south of Haiti.

Edit: Now, it is gliding along the south coast of Cuba. Um, that's not a good direction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:03 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:CMC has is it passing just south of Haiti.

Edit: Now, it is gliding along the south coast of Cuba. Um, that's not a good direction.


Ha. It looks like it's wanting to create Elsa 2.0 now. That would be really strange if that happened two years in a row.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby JetFuel_SE » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:09 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:It seems like the GFS has a habit of being overly sensitive with marginal RH in the MDR/SAL, which may be to blame for this poor initialization.

The GFS seems to think we're in an El Niño, considering how it keeps pumping out EPAC majors.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:11 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:CMC has is it passing just south of Haiti.

Edit: Now, it is gliding along the south coast of Cuba. Um, that's not a good direction.


Ha. It looks like it's wanting to create Elsa 2.0 now. That would be really strange if that happened two years in a row.


Well, only this time, (at least early predictions-wise), this thing will not be going at like 28 mph, which was a major detriment to Elsa. More like "what if Elsa did not have to deal with speed shear and dealt with more favorable conditions" I guess? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby SoupBone » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:17 am

Yeah the CMC's path would be a very strange June/July system path, plowing right over Cuba into the SE GoM.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:22 am

SoupBone wrote:Yeah the CMC's path would be a very strange June/July system path, plowing right over Cuba into the SE GoM.

Hmm i am not sure it's that weird looking at past tracks

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby Teban54 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:56 am

SoupBone wrote:Yeah the CMC's path would be a very strange June/July system path, plowing right over Cuba into the SE GoM.

That path is almost identical to Dennis and Elsa, two storms that actually existed in June/July. I don’t think it's that strange after all.
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