EPAC: BONNIE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#41 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:04 pm

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12z GFS... Decent N shift with a Cat 2/3 moving into Yucatan, BOC, and Mexico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#42 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oYzaaSA.gif
12z GFS... Decent N shift with a Cat 2/3 moving into Yucatan, BOC, and Mexico.


The ridge looks way too strong for this to come towards the CONUS, but this is over 10 days out and a whole lot can change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#43 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:13 pm

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12z CMC/GEM... Right outlier and similar to 00z... Turning NW in EGOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:14 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/TUO2XXe.gif
12z CMC/GEM... Right outlier and similar to 00z... Turning NW in EGOM


Boy that shield is something else. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#45 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:16 pm

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12z ICON...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#46 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:33 pm

12z Euro is so far south, 94L almost crashes into Colombia.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#47 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:36 pm

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Active 12z GEFS...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#48 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:46 pm

Euro has been the most consistent model on intensity and on track so far with landfall in Nicaragua.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#49 Postby hurricane2025 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:53 pm

Needs to develop first to see some consistency
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#50 Postby skyline385 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:58 pm

12Z EPS

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#51 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:07 pm



Looks like the spread is beginning to consolidate slowly. No members now show a trajectory east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#52 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:25 pm

The Euro model plots look to be separating into two camps in the long range. One track is west into Central America while the other is WNW/NW into the GOM. It seems to hinge on the strength of the ridge.

Need an established circulation to get some better predictions though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#53 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:20 pm

18z GFS has no development now, because the wave is a tiny bit further south and gets stuck in that area of vorticity it always has around Colombia/Venezuela.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#54 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 5:49 pm

18Z GFS buries it in southern Nicaragua as a TD or weak TS. Fine with me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#55 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:09 pm

aspen wrote:18z GFS has no development now, because the wave is a tiny bit further south and gets stuck in that area of vorticity it always has around Colombia/Venezuela.


Any system that goes along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia will end up getting shredded by the Pico Cristobal Colon which is a 5,700m high mountain right on the coast and the main reason there is so much vorticity in the area as the trade winds blow around it creating eddies.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#56 Postby WiscoWx02 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:29 pm

aspen wrote:18z GFS has no development now, because the wave is a tiny bit further south and gets stuck in that area of vorticity it always has around Colombia/Venezuela.


It's only one model run and it's only the GFS but this is why I am still not onboard with development. The 18z GFS is more of a reality check than anything, that it is June and conditions in this part of the Atlantic just aren't that favorable. Would not at all be surprised to see more models start backing down in the coming runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#57 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:41 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
aspen wrote:18z GFS has no development now, because the wave is a tiny bit further south and gets stuck in that area of vorticity it always has around Colombia/Venezuela.


It's only one model run and it's only the GFS but this is why I am still not onboard with development. The 18z GFS is more of a reality check than anything, that it is June and conditions in this part of the Atlantic just aren't that favorable. Would not at all be surprised to see more models start backing down in the coming runs.


Well, under normal circumstances, that would be the general expectation. But as folks such as Eric Webb, Andy Hazelton, and Alex Boreham did point out, the predictions (according to SHIPS as well as other decently reliable prediction guidances) pointed out how factors such as the CCKW timing and shear are expected to be anomalously favorable in the Caribbean by next week. Again, I totally understand your rationale for being conservative here, but I personally am quite interested in how models such as ECMWF, CMC, and ICON have had unwavering support for something decent down in that region during the end of June/early July.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#58 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:48 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:
aspen wrote:18z GFS has no development now, because the wave is a tiny bit further south and gets stuck in that area of vorticity it always has around Colombia/Venezuela.


It's only one model run and it's only the GFS but this is why I am still not onboard with development. The 18z GFS is more of a reality check than anything, that it is June and conditions in this part of the Atlantic just aren't that favorable. Would not at all be surprised to see more models start backing down in the coming runs.

It would be a monumental model bust if 94L does not develop at all, after the large amount of multi-model support it has had over the last several days. Just look at the SHIPS runs; I’ve never seen one forecast a Cat 4 this early on for any Atlantic invest, and for it to never develop would be the biggest SHIPS bust ever.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#59 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:10 pm

* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942022 06/25/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 99 105 108
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 96 102 105
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 30 33 39 46 56 68 78 85 94 99
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 14 11 12 6 7 4 8 5 6 10 2 4 3 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 8 10 3 5 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 2
SHEAR DIR 45 43 39 34 32 40 15 352 15 348 50 83 125 94 139 211 130
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 137 137 136 139 140 141 137 135 131 132 133 136 140 142
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 138 137 137 136 139 140 141 137 135 131 132 133 136 140 142
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 6
700-500 MB RH 70 71 67 66 68 73 72 65 67 67 69 68 72 73 74 74 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 14 11 12 11 11 10 12 11 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 16 13 22 48 50 59 63 58 50 63 68 72 89 93 78
200 MB DIV 73 53 24 1 17 8 -1 12 60 19 44 48 72 34 0 40 79
700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 4 -3 0 0 3
LAND (KM) 1421 1353 1304 1266 1247 1089 800 574 426 417 175 100 165 30 137 319 304
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.9 11.6 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 33.3 35.0 36.5 37.9 39.3 42.2 45.2 48.5 52.0 55.6 59.4 63.4 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 14 14 14 16 17 18 19 20 20 18 18 17 16 14
HEAT CONTENT 29 27 23 21 26 28 46 23 30 18 21 6 10 9 14 20 23

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -4. -5. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 31. 37. 44. 51. 62. 67. 76. 79. 85. 88.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 33.3

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.1% 10.0% 3.9% 2.8% 2.8% 10.0% 15.3% 34.9%
Bayesian: 0.7% 10.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 7.6%
Consensus: 1.3% 6.9% 1.8% 1.0% 1.0% 3.4% 5.4% 14.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/25/2022 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 51 57 64 71 82 87 96 96 102 105
18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 39 49 55 62 69 80 85 94 94 100 103
12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 34 44 50 57 64 75 80 89 89 95 98
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#60 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:49 pm

GFS around this time vs. reality. Not great...
Image
Image
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