EPAC: BONNIE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#81 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:15 am

Kingarabian wrote:Entire 00z model suite is pretty much into Central America. Only exception is some GEFS members that are the strongest. Those have 94L gaining more latitude.


Definitely think if this exceeds the models in intensity we may see a much more northerly path
Maybe into the gulf or even possibly Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#82 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:22 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Entire 00z model suite is pretty much into Central America. Only exception is some GEFS members that are the strongest. Those have 94L gaining more latitude.


Definitely think if this exceeds the models in intensity we may see a much more northerly path
Maybe into the gulf or even possibly Florida.


It's still far out but in regards to Florida I think even if 94L threw a curve ball, at most it would be the panhandle and even that's unlikely. The high is too strong. The following wave has a stronger chance of reaching Florida though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#83 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:46 am

06z HWRF and HMON have a very similar evolution: no development until it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, a moderate TS passing over the ABC islands on Thursday, and a low-end but intensifying hurricane on Friday as it pulls away from South America. If this evolution of 94L verifies, then the ceiling is moderately high for its intensity in the SW Caribbean, as it’ll have about another 24-36 hours over water after the end of both HWRF and HMON runs. Maybe 90-100 kt tops.

If 94L follows a track and development evolution more comparable to the GFS, then a moderate to high-end Cat 1 might be the ceiling for it, and the ABC islands might not even get a fully-fledged tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#84 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:44 am

In this 12z run, GFS ends in southern BOC.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#85 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:37 pm

The HWRF is pretty slow, not just with development (open wave until it’s over the Lesser Antilles), but with 94L’s forward speed too. The 12z HWRF ends with 94L at 14N/72.5W on Friday afternoon, far behind the 12z HMON at 13N/78.6W. It also takes 12 hours longer to reach the Lesser Antilles. This (probably incorrect) slow-down near and in the Caribbean allows 94L to develop a very nice outflow setup and gives it more time over water, so if the 12z run went out another 48 hours, it would probably show a major.

The HMON has a more believable track and timing, but shows quicker development with a 40-45 kt TS impacting the Lesser Antilles and a 60-65 kt TS/C1 over Aruba. The run ends with a 978mb Cat 1 and could also possibly end with a major if it went out another 48 hours. However, faster forward speed should limit intensification in a number of ways.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#86 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:44 pm

I just plotted all models, including the GFS ensembles (in green). It's rare to see so much agreement on a track between all models, including ensembles. You can see the color key on the right of the image. Consensus is right down the middle. That's GFS ensemble member 16 with the NW turn at the end, heading for Cozumel. 94L does not appear to be any Gulf of Mexico threat.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just plotted all models, including the GFS ensembles (in green). It's rare to see so much agreement on a track between all models, including ensembles. That's GFS ensemble member 16 with the NW turn at the end, heading for Cozumel. 94L does not appear to be any Gulf of Mexico threat.

http://wxman57.com/images/94LModels12Z26.JPG

Think the models aren't factoring its initial strength properly. HWRF and HMON have been, and as a result show a slower and more north center in the Caribbean. Slower and stronger in the Caribbean means a lot is in play IMO.

12z GFS despite it being weaker and interacting with SA terrain managed to get it into the southern BOC.

Strongest GEFS members still show the possibility of this lifting north before reaching CA.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:02 pm

Some track verification for the HWRF and GFS
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#89 Postby AerospaceEng » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just plotted all models, including the GFS ensembles (in green). It's rare to see so much agreement on a track between all models, including ensembles. You can see the color key on the right of the image. Consensus is right down the middle. That's GFS ensemble member 16 with the NW turn at the end, heading for Cozumel. 94L does not appear to be any Gulf of Mexico threat.

Image

What model cycle are these from?

One of the 12z GFS ensembles has a south Texas landfall, and 6 of them are so far north they don’t even touch Central America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#90 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:29 pm

18z GFS has a 974mb landfall at 12z Sunday, roughly 48 hours or so after it starts getting further from South America. It develops a little earlier than previous runs and has a very small core.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#91 Postby Jr0d » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:........94L does not appear to be any Gulf of Mexico threat.


I have learned to not bet against you, especially given the model consensus. I think those who disagree have 'geography bias' if you know what I mean.

If this stays intact across CA, will it get a new name?(like Ceasar) or did the rules change?

I had this discussion earlier in the year with Agatha(had it maintained a center when it crossed over) and I was told the policy has changed and storms keep their name from original basin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#92 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:18 pm

Jr0d wrote:
wxman57 wrote:........94L does not appear to be any Gulf of Mexico threat.


I have learned to not bet against you, especially given the model consensus. I think those who disagree have 'geography bias' if you know what I mean.

If this stays intact across CA, will it get a new name?(like Ceasar) or did the rules change?

I had this discussion earlier in the year with Agatha(had it maintained a center when it crossed over) and I was told the policy has changed and storms keep their name from original basin.

I believe the rules changed so that any crossover system that remains intact keeps its name (Otto ‘16). However, if 94L/Bonnie were to dissipate over CA and reform in the EPac, then it would get a new name.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#93 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:52 pm

The 18z hurricane model runs took two extremes and ran with them. The HMON suddenly turns NW after passing over the ABC islands and RIs into a Cat 2, while the HWRF is by far the furthest south it has ever been. I would've expected a massive gain in latitude from the HWRF, which has had a northerly bias for systems in this area (notably Eta and Iota). Just like in previous runs, though, the HMON has a faster forward speed, with 94L being roughly 2.5 degrees further west at the end of the HMON run compared to the HWRF.

HMON
Image
Image

HWRF
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#94 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:56 pm

HMON on this run woulda almost certainly been a BOC system/WGOM system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#95 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:29 am

00z HWRF bullish once again.
Image

Image
Trajectory gradually adding a more NW component towards the end of the run
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#96 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:30 am

00Z HMON shifts even closer to Jamacia
Image

00Z Euro/GFS/CMC into CA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#97 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:36 am

06z HWRF and HMON are both slow with development; HMON takes until 94L is over the ABC islands while HWRF develops it over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. So far no unrealistic latitude gains. This HMON run is going to end up far weaker than the last two because it only has a weak TS at 84hrs; HWRF could make another run for a major.

Also, why did the HWRF start to weaken 94L at the end of the 00z run despite favorable conditions?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#98 Postby USTropics » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:54 am

aspen wrote:06z HWRF and HMON are both slow with development; HMON takes until 94L is over the ABC islands while HWRF develops it over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. So far no unrealistic latitude gains. This HMON run is going to end up far weaker than the last two because it only has a weak TS at 84hrs; HWRF could make another run for a major.

Also, why did the HWRF start to weaken 94L at the end of the 00z run despite favorable conditions?


An area of stable/dry air sweeps into the western Caribbean before 94Ls arrival, and as the system strengthens it wraps around a tongue of dry air to the S/SE:
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#99 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:41 am

HWRF shows weakening as 94L approaches Central America around 117-126hrs due to a displaced anticyclone causing northward shear. So far, it is the only model to show this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#100 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:50 am

HMON and HWRF continue to be north of the guidance. Both models are now the only models showing a hurricane in the Caribbean.

Image
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