EPAC: BONNIE - Models

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#61 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#62 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Fri Jun 24, 2022 11:17 pm

0z ICON has a Central Caribbean hurricane at the end of the run moving WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#63 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:48 am

Just saw the 00z run for the GFS. All I'm gonna say is that its convective initialization is not that great. And I am not alone in this thinking.

 https://twitter.com/figueroa_ii/status/1540561348454670337




 https://twitter.com/FrankCarcaterra/status/1540552690375294978


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#64 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:55 am

The models took a south shift overnight, but still show development. The CMC and ICON both finally have tracks similar to the GFS and Euro, sticking rather far south (despite developing before the Lesser Antilles) and only gaining some latitude after 70W-75W. The 00z ICON looks very similar to yesterday’s 12z GFS, even though it only goes out to 180 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#65 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:39 am

Below is my interpolation in between the overnight GFS & Euro. They're very close together now up to landfall next Saturday morning in Nicaragua. Even the ensembles have all shifted south, away from the Gulf. Bonnie is looking like "Cesar II".

Excellent analog is Cesar of 1996, which became Douglas in the EPAC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

In case you're wondering, a coworker of mine developed an excel spreadsheet years ago that allows me to put in any lat/lon and get a plot on any of about 10 different map scales. It doesn't place the symbols on the map, just dots. I add the symbols manually. I also typed in my predicted max sustained winds to the right of the lat/lon values. Forward speed between points is automatically calculated using the Haversine equation for calculating distances between points on a sphere. Note the 23-25 kt movement in the eastern Caribbean vs. near 15 kts in the SW Caribbean. That's where low-level convergence should really get Bonnie going possibly to a hurricane prior to landfall in Nicaragua.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:45 am

First run of HWRF has a cat 2 with track the same as GFS and Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:03 am

A solid consensus on the track.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#68 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 8:45 am

HWRF is in the early development camp along with the CMC and ICON (no surprise there lol). It has a decent initialization and shows convection really flaring tomorrow morning, and a TC sometime midday Monday.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#69 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:20 am

cycloneye wrote:First run of HWRF has a cat 2 with track the same as GFS and Euro.

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HWRF has it at Cat 1/2 way out from land

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#70 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 10:33 am

12z ICON is weaker and further south, more in line with the GFS/Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#71 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 2:14 pm

Pretty good consensus today that this will run straight into central america. We'll see in about day 4-5 when it get near 70W. Still some time for things to change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#72 Postby robbielyn » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:A solid consensus on the track.

https://i.imgur.com/iCKT441.png

https://i.imgur.com/zblO0Pk.png


Pretty amazing seeing how far out it is.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#73 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:23 pm

12Z EPS, members seem to be further closing down on CA

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#74 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:53 pm

18z GFS shows a very anemic wave for the next day or so, but then convection rapidly blossoms once it reaches 50W.

Update: then it fades away and the wave is an absolute mess once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Looks like it’s going to get stuck in that broad circulation the GFS always has on the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.
Last edited by aspen on Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#75 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:58 pm

HWRF nailed convective structure this afternoon wow. Pretty impressed not gonna lie.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#76 Postby Hammy » Sat Jun 25, 2022 5:34 pm

Seems like the models are shaping up for a Cesar 1996 type situation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#77 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:52 pm

skyline385 wrote:12Z EPS, members seem to be further closing down on CA

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220625/c276869904fd3d04a89bba7f5f5f96e1.jpg


But more north than the 00z EPS. 00Z EPS had half the members sending its remnants into the EPAC. 12Z they're clustered on it entering the Yucatan channel. Something to monitor considering Harvey 2017.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#78 Postby aspen » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:07 pm

HWRF has been switching from the early development camp (ICON/CMC) to the late development camp (GFS/Euro). Despite a big convective burst tomorrow, 94L struggles to close off an LLC — probably due to typical early-season trades — until just after it passes the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Most models agree on a landfall taking place sometime on Saturday, which will give 94L at least two days to intensify, depending on when it becomes a TC.

18z HMON has a slightly faster development pace, with 94L becoming a TS while it’s over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#79 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:12 pm

aspen wrote:HWRF has been switching from the early development camp (ICON/CMC) to the late development camp (GFS/Euro). Despite a big convective burst tomorrow, 94L struggles to close off an LLC — probably due to typical early-season trades — until just after it passes the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Most models agree on a landfall taking place sometime on Saturday, which will give 94L at least two days to intensify, depending on when it becomes a TC.

18z HMON has a slightly faster development pace, with 94L becoming a TS while it’s over the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning.

18z HWRF also seems to be much slower than the 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#80 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:31 am

Entire 00z model suite is pretty much into Central America. Only exception is some GEFS members that are the strongest. Those have 94L gaining more latitude.

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Still some northerly members on the EPS later in the forecast track.
Image

About 20-30% of EPS members in the past 5 runs showed this getting into the BOC or GOM.
Image
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sun Jun 26, 2022 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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