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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:09 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 73.3W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 73.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to
continue through tonight. Some decrease in forward speed with a
continued motion toward the west is forecast on Friday and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the
system approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while
the system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast
on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia through this
morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Nicaragua and
Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres
and Providencia on Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:54 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 74.0W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi, and a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Pacific coast of Nicaragua from the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border northward to Puerto Sandino.

The government of Costa Rica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica from Limon northward to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Pacific coast of Costa Rica from Cabo Blanco northward to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.0 North, longitude 74.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly
westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge
over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia through this
morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

The disturbance has not become significantly better organized since
yesterday with a large curved convective band over the northern
portion of the system. Some limited deep convection is forming
near the location of the low-level vorticity maximum, which is where
a center is expected to form. However, visible satellite images
and surface observations along the coast of Colombia indicate that
the system still has not developed a well-defined center of
circulation, so the disturbance will be kept as a potential tropical
cyclone for now. The advisory intensity remains at 35 kt, just
above the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the area this
afternoon to determine whether a closed circulation has formed and
to better assess the intensity of the system.

The initial motion estimate remains rapidly westward, 270/17 kt. A
strong mid-level ridge extending southwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea should force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on
a slightly south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central
America. A more zonal orientation of the ridge after after 36
hours will likely result in a more westward motion across Central
America and into the eastern North Pacific. In 3-5 days, the
system should move west-northwestward, south of the coast of Mexico,
on the southwest side of the ridge. The official track forecast is
quite close to the previous one and also in close agreement with
the latest multi-model consensus, TVCN.

The expected slowing of forward speed makes it more likely that the
disturbance will acquire a closed circulation soon. A very
low-shear environment with SSTs near 28 deg C and fairly moist low-
to mid-tropospheric air favors intensification of the system until
it reaches Central America. The official forecast is close to the
simple and corrected intensity model consensus. The NHC forecast
does not explicitly show the system reaching hurricane strength over
the southwestern Caribbean. However since there is a possibility it
could strengthen into a hurricane, the Hurricane Watch is maintained
for a portion of the coast of Nicaragua.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia
through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.0N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0000Z 11.7N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1200Z 11.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 11.1N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 03/0000Z 11.2N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
72H 03/1200Z 11.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 13.2N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
locally heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia for the
next several hours, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 75.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Deep convection associated with the disturbance is minimal, and in
fact one could argue that the system lacks sufficient convection
for classification via the Dvorak technique. The main band of
shower activity is located well to the north of the location of
the low-level vorticity maximum. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were not able to close off a definite center of circulation,
although they did report some light southwest winds over the
southern portion of the system just to the north of Colombia.
Observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Since the models generally agree
that the system will slow its forward speed beginning tonight, it is
still likely that it will develop a better-defined low level
circulation soon.

The initial motion estimate remains at 270/17 for now. A
mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a
little south of west for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, a
more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally
westward track across Central America and into the eastern Pacific.
In 3 to 5 days, the system should move west-northwestward on the
southwestern periphery of the ridge, to the south of Mexico. The
NHC track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected model
consensus predictions.

The environment for the system looks conducive for strengthening up
to landfall, with very low vertical shear, warm waters, and a
moist low- to mid-level air mass. After weakening during
its passage across Central America, re-strengthening is expected
over the eastern Pacific. The official intensity forecast is near
the high end of the intensity model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.0N 75.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 11.4N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
60H 03/0600Z 11.8N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 12.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea this evening through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua
or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 77.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for portions of
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.8 North, longitude 77.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a continued mostly
westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea tonight through Friday, cross
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and
emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America. Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

The disturbance has become somewhat better organized since the last
advisory, Last-light visible imagery showed a swirl of low-clouds
marking a vorticity center, and the convection has been increasing
near and northwest of the swirl. In addition, an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a pressure of 1005 mb when it
passed through the swirl. However, the plane was unable to close
off a well-defined circulation, and the aircraft wind data suggests
the possibility that the swirl is to the north of a broader
circulation. Thus, the system is still not a tropical cyclone.
The aircraft data indicates that the initial intensity remains near
35 kt.

The initial motion is 270/18. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending
southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the
disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24
h. Then from 24-72 h, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to
result in a generally westward track across Central America into
the eastern Pacific. After that time, the system should move
west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge,
parallel to and south of the coast of Mexico. The new NHC track
forecast has no significant changes from the previous forecast and
lies close to the various consensus models.

While the warm-water, light-shear environment of the southwestern
Caribbean is favorable for development, so far little development
has occurred and the system is running out of time before it
reaches Central America. The intensity forecast calls for an
intensity of 50 kt by 24 h, and it is still possible that the
system could be near hurricane strength before it reached Central
America in about 30 hours. Weakening should occur while the system
crosses Central America, followed by re-intensification over the
Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.8N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/1200Z 11.5N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.4N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z 11.6N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
60H 03/1200Z 12.2N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 13.0N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:54 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system. A Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for portions of
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.6 North, longitude 78.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica
tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
Central America. Weakening is expected while the system crosses
Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica beginning later today.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:56 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches the
coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight while
the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but restrengthening is
anticipated Saturday through Monday while it moves over the Pacific
Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm today while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this
evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the
warning areas by Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

The disturbance is finally looking like a bona fide tropical
cyclone. Deep convection has blossomed overnight in two primary
bands around the potential center. But whether there is a
well-defined center yet is the million dollar question. The system
is gradually slowing down, so if a center has not formed yet, it
should form very soon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission is scheduled for later this morning to help determine if the
disturbance has become a tropical storm.

The disturbance is moving just south of due west and slightly slower
at 265/16 kt. The system is forecast to lose a little more latitude
today and slow down further while it approaches the coast of Central
America, and it is expected to move across southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific
waters on Saturday. After that time, strong mid-level ridging will
remain established over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is
expected to turn west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days. This track
essentially runs parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and Mexico through the end of the forecast period, about 100-200
n mi off the coast. The track guidance has nudged slightly
northward during the time the system is over the Pacific Ocean, with
the ECMWF model the closest to the coast of Mexico, and the new NHC
track forecast is just a little north of the previous forecast on
days 4 and 5. Given the system's potential proximity to land,
interests all along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

The system has 12-24 hours to strengthen in an environment of low
vertical shear and over warm 28 degrees Celsius waters before it
reaches Central America. The official intensity forecast at 24
hours, around the time the system reaches land, is a little higher
than the available guidance to account for uncertainty in the
initial analysis and to maintain continuity from the previous
forecast. Some weakening is likely as the system moves over land,
but restrengthening is anticipated over the Pacific waters where
vertical shear is expected to remain low and waters will still be
warm.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua this evening or tonight.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.5N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/1800Z 11.3N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 02/0600Z 11.3N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
48H 03/0600Z 11.7N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 12.4N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 13.3N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:04 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 79.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight
while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but
restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm today while slowing down over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua this evening or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this
evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the
warning areas by Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:56 am

Tropical Storm Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
915 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the disturbance has now become Tropical Storm Bonnie over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea with maximum winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 915 AM EDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast.

The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is
expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall
tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68
inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western
Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into
the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east
of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44
kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface
winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another
reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today.

Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has
tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm
is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and
Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is
expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and
it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and
track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the
next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during
the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution
and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is
slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the
initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's progress during the next
several days.

Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is
forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall.
The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of
the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern
Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and
aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of
the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE APPROACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today,
cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge
over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then
move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall
tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.

The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEGUN IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 82.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 82.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on
Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes
landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is likely,
but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early
next week over the eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica this evening and will
spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas
overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022


Bonnie is approaching the coast of Central America. Satellite
images indicate that the storm is becoming better organized, with
deep convection increasing near the center and banding features
becoming more prominent in all quadrants. The Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, and
based on these estimates and the improvement in structure, the
initial wind speed is increased a little to 40 kt.

Bonnie is now moving due west at 270/15 kt, and this motion is
expected to continue until landfall late tonight near the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Bonnie is forecast to emerge over
the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn
west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the
coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The
models have generally changed little this cycle, and the new NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Given
the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador,
Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor
Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

The tropical storm only has about 6 hours to strengthen before it
reaches the coast. However, the environment remains favorable and
given the improved structure, strengthening seems likely during
that time. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Bonnie prior to landfall. Although some weakening is
likely late tonight and early Saturday when the storm passes across
Central America, it is expected to remain a tropical cyclone.
Gradual intensification is expected later in the weekend and next
week as the cyclone remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment
over the eastern Pacific. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of intensification than the previous one and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres during the
next few hours, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas later this
evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.3N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1800Z 11.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 03/0600Z 11.6N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 13.2N 94.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 97.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 15.6N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...CENTER OF BONNIE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 83.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 83.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to
begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will make landfall near the border of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica in the next few hours, move across southern Nicaragua
and northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of
but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, short term weakening is likely, but Bonnie is expected to
restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the
eastern Pacific.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across
portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the next few hours
and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning
areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

...CENTER OF BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA
BORDER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 83.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Colombia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for San Andres.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located just inland over southeastern Nicaragua near latitude 10.9
North, longitude 83.8 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near
16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is expected into Saturday night. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin late Saturday night
or on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track,
the system will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa
Rica tonight and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that before landfall maximum sustained winds increased to near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is likely while the
center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The storm
is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern Pacific Saturday night
and Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will spread westward to the Pacific coast
within the warning areas overnight.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that the center of Bonnie has just made
landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. The aircraft
reported that prior to landfall, Bonnie was forming an inner wind
core with a radius of maximum winds of 5-10 n mi, and on the last
fix a 10 n mi wide eye was present. The maximum flight-level winds
were 61 kt at 850 mb, and the maximum reliable surface wind
estimates from the SFMR were in the 40-45 kt range. Based on these
data, the landfall intensity is set to a possibly conservative 45
kt.

The initial motion is now 270/14. A mid- to upper-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward for the
next 24 h or so, with the center crossing southern Nicaragua and
northern Costa Rica before reaching the eastern Pacific Saturday
morning. After that, the cyclone should turn west-northwestward
parallel to the southern coasts of Central America and Mexico, with
this general motion persisting through the remainder of the
forecast period. The track forecast guidance is tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous
track. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal
El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

Bonnie's small inner core will probably not survive the passage
over land during the next 12 h, but the cyclone is still expected to
be a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Pacific. Once
there, warm sea surface temperatures and a light shear environment
should allow re-intensification, and Bonnie is now forecast to
reach hurricane status about two days after it moves into the
Pacific. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica through Saturday. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1200Z 10.9N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0000Z 11.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
36H 03/1200Z 11.6N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 12.4N 93.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 13.3N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:29 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located inland along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border near latitude
11.0 North, longitude 84.5 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, Bonnie will move
across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica during the next
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this
morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next
several hours while the center of Bonnie crosses Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. The storm is forecast to re-intensify over the eastern
Pacific beginning later today and continuing through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few
hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:10 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM NE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this
morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges
over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

The intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT will be issued under
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

The next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT will be issued as an
Eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4
and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Papin




Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure.
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made,
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period.
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of
this coastline.

So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America,
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However,
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason,
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the
forecast period.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific
later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued
under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: BONNIE - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 6:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE WILL SOON MOVE OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 85.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 85.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast
track, Bonnie will emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the
next couple of hours. Bonnie will then move offshore of but
parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern
Mexico today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over
the eastern Pacific later this morning and should continue through
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:41 am


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE MOVES OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...

Corrected Advisory Number


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 86.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning on the Caribbean coast. The government of Costa Rica has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the Caribbean coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to move away
from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, after
which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for several more hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

NNNN


Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Corrected advisory number

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes
indicate that Bonnie has moved offshore from extreme southern
Nicaragua and becomes one of the rare tropical cyclones to
cross from the Atlantic Basin into the eastern Pacific Basin. The
center of circulation remains well-defined after crossing southern
Nicaragua last night, and satellite data during the last several
hours indicate that deep convection remains active near the center
of the storm. Given the robust structure apparent on radar and
satellite, the initial intensity is held steady at 35 kt for this
advisory, despite the land interactions during the past 12 hours or
so.

Bonnie is moving due west at 270/14 kt. The primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period is a deep-layer ridge
located north of the storm, which is expected to cause Bonnie to
track west-northwestward and remain offshore and roughly parallel to
the coast of Central America and Mexico. Track guidance is in good
agreement throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast
is very similar to the consensus track aids and the prior forecast.
Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore,
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico
should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as
any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

While the well-defined structure indicates that some strengthening
is possible in the next day or so, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
are only marginally conducive for intensification and confined to a
relatively shallow depth. For this reason, intensification is
forecast to occur slowly for the next 24 hours until Bonnie reaches
warmer waters in about 36 hours, after which the rate of
intensification is forecast to increase. Similar to the previous
forecast, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
three days, and the intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

In association with Bonnie crossing into the eastern Pacific,
product headers for Bonnie have changed to eastern Pacific headers
beginning with this advisory, with the ATCF identifier changing from
AL022022 to EP042022.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 11.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN BOTH
NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 87.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next few hours.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 87.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the day today. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and that motion should continue
for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue moving
away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America
and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
after which Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will likely continue for a couple of more
hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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