EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

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EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Island by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea
or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance
will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical
wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that
the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the
plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the
northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some
cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well
organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance
will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward
Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for
development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that
bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA.

Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the
initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical
ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system
through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a
west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:43 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL TO THE NORTH OF
FRENCH GUIANA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.8N 51.6W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.8 North, longitude 51.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or
near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance
will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern
Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.7N 52.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas
de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 8.7 North, longitude 52.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will
pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by late
Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea
or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while moving
westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in the southern Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Bonaire
by Wednesday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

The disturbance east of the southern Windward Islands appears to
have lost organization this evening. There is still no sign of a
well-defined center, and much of the associated convection is
oriented in a broken east-to-west line. Needless to say, the
center location is very uncertain. Maximum winds remain 35 kt
based on the earlier aircraft data.

The motion estimate is westward, or 275/15 kt. Strong ridging to
the north should keep the disturbance moving generally westward or
west-northwestward at a quick pace through the forecast period.
The challenging aspect of the forecast is whether the disturbance
will develop a well-defined center (and become a tropical cyclone),
and if it does, will that center move over the waters of the
southern Caribbean Sea or instead moved inland across northern
Venezuela. The available track guidance grazes the coast of
Venezuela, and if the disturbance follows that track, it could
still close off a center and strengthen. If genesis does not occur
during that period, tropical cyclone formation would become more
likely after 60 hours once the system moves out over the waters of
the southwestern Caribbean Sea away from land. Low shear and warm
waters could support the system becoming a hurricane over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on what
state the system is in after interacting with land.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night through Wednesday. Localized
flash flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday
evening.

3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with
land from Tuesday night through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 8.7N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/1200Z 9.3N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/0000Z 10.1N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/1200Z 10.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 11.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 11.8N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 11.8N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 11.5N 81.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 11.9N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:31 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS, LIKELY
TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.3N 55.2W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 55.2 West. The system is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across
the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting tonight into Wednesday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
and nearby islands tonight, and in Bonaire by Wednesday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

Overnight satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance
continues to struggle. While there is a ball of convection near
the best surface center, GOES 1-min data shows no signs of a
well-defined center, and the mid-level circulation seems displaced
a degree or more west of the low-level wave axis. Maximum winds
are held at 35 kt for this advisory, pending Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data later this morning.

The system appears to have sped up, with a rough motion estimate of
280/20 kt. A strong ridge to the north should keep the disturbance
moving generally westward or west-northwestward at a quick pace
through the forecast period. It is a close call on whether or not
the system can stay far enough offshore of South America to become a
tropical cyclone and potentially strengthen, or if it moves inland
over South America and eventually forms later in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. The new NHC forecast brushes most of the coast of
Venezuela, and consequently shows little change in strength for a
couple of days as a low-end tropical storm. After that time, low
shear and warm waters could support the system becoming a hurricane
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, but that will largely depend on
what's left of the system after interacting with land. No changes
were made to the end of the forecast with such high uncertainty.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and
Wednesday, and on Bonaire by Wednesday evening.

3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty on the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with
land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 9.3N 55.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/1800Z 9.9N 58.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/0600Z 10.7N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/1800Z 11.3N 66.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 11.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 12.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 11.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 11.8N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 12.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:46 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 56.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de
Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua
* Bonaire

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, Curacao, Aruba, and the northeastern coast of Colombia
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 56.5 West. The system is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting tonight into Wednesday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
and nearby islands tonight, and in Bonaire by Wednesday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD
OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 57.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Bonaire.

The government of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Curacao.

The government of Aruba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 9.8 North, longitude 57.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern
Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela later today through Wednesday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita and the
adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands later
on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also
exhibits some banding features. However, reports from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined
center of circulation at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this
afternoon.

The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist
atmospheric environment for the next couple of days. However,
interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean
Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into
a hurricane, could occur over the latter area.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric
ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this
week. Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected through the forecast period. The official forecast
track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected
dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening.

3. There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with
land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 9.8N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0000Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/1200Z 11.3N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/0000Z 11.7N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 12.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 12.2N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 12.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 12.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1200Z 12.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.0 North, longitude 58.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near
the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela later today through Wednesday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the northern coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near
the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of
Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands, the northeastern
coast of Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some
banding features over the northern portion of the system.
Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the
Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed
circulation.

Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a
low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next
couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the
system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone
on Wednesday. However interaction with land, including low-level
inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean
Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into
a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the
official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the global models
suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact
after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC
forecast.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt.
There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A
strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to
the north of the system through this week. Therefore a continued
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
forecast period. The official forecast track remains about the
same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands,
northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday.
Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:42 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), based on data from the Barbados radar
and surface observations the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.4 North, longitude 61.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 25 mph (40 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion
is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system
will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands
tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the
northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of Colombia on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. During the past several hours, there was a wind
gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) on Grenada during a severe thunderstorm.
There have also been other reports of wind gust of tropical-storm
force elsewhere across portions of the southern Windward Islands
and Trinidad and Tobago.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
tonight and Wednesday…and from the ABC Islands to portions of
northwest Venezuela Wednesday through Wednesday night. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.

The meteorological Service of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to
St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean
Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica
should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 10.9 North, longitude 62.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the system will pass near or over the northeastern
coast of Venezuela tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean
Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast
of Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm
while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
tonight and Wednesday and from the ABC Islands to portions of
northwest Venezuela Wednesday through Wednesday night. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St.
Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada,
Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.
Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to Northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning, and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting
better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in
the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from
Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet
developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status
of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on the various surface observations.

The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and
warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this
should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr.
Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from
the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster
development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane
strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point.
Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that
the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after
crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast.

The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a
somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or
just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the
presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west
motion may occur for a time while the system is over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track is lies close to the various consensus models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through
late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.

3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:27 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 64.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the
northern coast of Venezuela today, near the northeast coast of
Colombia on Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. Maurice Bishop International Airport on Grenada
recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela
tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts could cause localized flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over
the ABC Islands by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
during the next few hours, and in the watch area along the
northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of
Colombia by tonight and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:56 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE SPEEDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 65.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and a westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern
coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela
and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 2 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 2 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and
northeastern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Localized flash flooding will be possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning,
and over the ABC Islands by this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
northeastern Venezuela for the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

If I just took a casual look at conventional satellite data, I would
think the system was already a tropical storm. There is a big ball
of convection near the center, along with banding features forming
in most of the quadrants of the system. Microwave data, however,
does not show much low-level structure, with only broad curvature
and no obvious indications of a well-defined center. Thus, the
system remains a disturbance, and the initial wind speed remains 35
kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB.

One reason that the system has been unable to close off a
circulation so far is the very rapid speed, now estimated at 26 kt
(or even faster in the short-term). All of the guidance continue
to insist the system will slow down over the next few days due to
less low-level ridging over the western part of the Atlantic basin.
The low could even lose latitude over the southwestern Caribbean
due to the orientation of the mid-level ridge, which more models
are showing. The new forecast is faster than the previous one,
ahead of the model consensus, placing more weight on the ECMWF than
the GFS, the latter of which has been much too slow with this
system.

The disturbance will probably be struggling with, or recovering
from, land interaction over the next day or so. So little
intensification is shown during that time. Thereafter, the
environment would seem to be conducive for significant
strengthening, but it is unknown what kind of structure the system
will have to potentially take advantage of the conducive conditions.
Additionally, with the faster forward speed, it should spend less
time over water for strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is
reduced somewhat from the previous one, but generally remains above
the model consensus. Interestingly, almost all of the models
indicate that the system will survive passage across Central America
and intensify in the eastern Pacific. This is now indicated in the
official forecast, and could be conservative at long range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Windward
Islands and spread into parts of northern Venezuela through tonight.
Localized flash flooding will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over Islas Margarita
for a few more hours, and over the ABC Islands by this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast
of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 11.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 11.7N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/0600Z 12.2N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 12.2N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 11.8N 82.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 11.8N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0600Z 12.3N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 13.5N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM E OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.4 North, longitude 66.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and a westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the
system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern
coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia
early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela
and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 2 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 2 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and
northeastern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Localized flash flooding will be possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning,
and over the ABC Islands by this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:59 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 67.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua, and discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales
to Cumana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 11.4 North, longitude 67.3 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a fast westward or
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the
forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean
Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today, and from the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Columbia today through Thursday morning. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:




Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

The disturbance continues to appear fairly well organized on
satellite images, with convective banding features noted over the
northern portion of the system. However, low cloud motions from
high-resolution visible satellite images and Curacao radar
observations suggest that the system still does not have a closed
circulation. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon. The initial intensity
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
TAFB, and the system could become a tropical storm at any time
today.

Based on recent satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is not
quite as fast as earlier, or about 280/21 kt. A large mid-level
ridge to the north of the system is forecast to be maintained for
the next few days. This should force a continued westward, or
slightly north of westward, motion. The official track forecast is
in good agreement with the model consensus, and takes the system
across Central America by Saturday morning.

There is upper-level anticyclonic outflow over the area, and the
vertical shear is forecast to remain low. Some strengthening seems
likely, but the interaction with the land mass of South America
will probably limit intensification for the next day or so. In 36
to 48 hours, when the system should be moving over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, it could approach hurricane strength. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the corrected model consensus
prediction. After the system crosses Central America and moves
into the eastern North Pacific basin, the environment should be
conducive for at least gradual strengthening.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern
Colombia today through Thursday morning. Localized flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible.

2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over the ABC Islands
by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the
northwestern coast of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight
and early Thursday.

3. There is greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea on
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 11.4N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0000Z 11.8N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1200Z 12.0N 73.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.1N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 11.9N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 11.7N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/1200Z 11.6N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/1200Z 12.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 12:49 pm

[Div][BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE ABC ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a fast westward or
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the
forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea
and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today, and from the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Windward Islands from St. Lucia to Trinidad and Tobago: 1 to 3
inches.

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Localized flash flooding will be possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands
later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and along the
coast of northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
/Div]
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 69.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CURACAO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from the Nicaragua/Costa Rica
border northward to Laguna de Perlas, and a Tropical Storm Watch
from north of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

The government of Costa Rica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica from Limon northward to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.6 North, longitude 69.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the
northern coast of Venezuela tonight, near the Guajira Peninsula of
Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is expected to be near
or over Nicaragua by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Columbia through Thursday morning, then across
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands
during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and
along the coast of northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

The system has changed little in organization today, and
in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the
heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over
the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that
the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible
satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a
center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface
observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from
Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system
could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.

The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt.
There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning.
The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to
the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for
most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a
slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due
to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not
much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther
south after 36 hours or so.

Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment,
it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence
of the South American land mass. The system is expected to
approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from
crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the
eastern North Pacific basin.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia
through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.

2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of
Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:33 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
800 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF ARUBA AND CURACAO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 69.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 69.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and
near the northern coast of Venezuela tonight, near the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The system is
expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the ABC Islands
in the warning area for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the northwestern
coast of Venezuela and along the coast of northeastern Colombia
tonight and early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 70.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Curacao.

The Meteorological Service of Aruba has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Aruba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system. Watches or warnings may be required for the Colombian
Islands of the southwestern Caribbean on Thursday.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast
track, the system will pass across the southern Caribbean Sea and
near the northern coast of Venezuela during the next few hours,
near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia early Thursday and over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea later on Thursday and on Friday. The
system is expected to be near or over Nicaragua by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia through Thursday morning, then across
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and along the coast of
northeastern Colombia through early Thursday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Last-light visible satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance
is gradually developing a closed circulation However, surface
observations from the ABC islands, as well as imagery from the
Curacao radar, indicate that the center is poorly defined. In
addition, the associated convection has become less organized
during the past several hours. Based on this, the system will not
be upgraded to a tropical storm at this time. The initial
intensity remains 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring
over the open Caribbean to the north of the ABC Islands.

The initial motion is now 275/18 kt. A large mid-level ridge to
the north of the system should steer it generally westward for the
next 2-3 days with some decrease in forward speed, with a more
west-northwestward motion after the system crosses Central America
into the Pacific. The track guidance has nudged a little farther
south through the first 60 h or so, so the new forecast track is
also nudged a little southward and lies close to the
various consensus models.

Warm sea surface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear
should allow the system to develop as it moves away from land later
tonight and on Thursday. The current forecast continues to call
for the system to become a tropical storm and then be just below
hurricane strength as it nears the coast of Nicaragua in about 48 h.
Significant weakening should occur over Central America, followed
by re-intensification over the eastern Pacific. The new intensity
forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance and is similar to
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Colombia
through Thursday morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern
coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight
and early Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.0N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/1200Z 12.1N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0000Z 12.0N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 11.7N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 11.4N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR NICARAGUA COAST
60H 02/1200Z 11.3N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
72H 03/0000Z 11.5N 88.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 14.0N 100.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:34 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 71.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the
Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Colombia should
monitor the progress of this system. Watches or warnings may be
required for the Colombian Islands of San Andres and Providencia
later today.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward motion is expected
through Friday. On the forecast track, the system will emerge over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea this morning, move westward over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, and then be over
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by late Friday. The
system is then expected to move over the waters of the eastern North
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia through this morning, then across Nicaragua
and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total rainfall
amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely ending within the
warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and
will likely continue along the coast of northeastern Colombia
through sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are also
possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia on
Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:48 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 72.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the island of San Andres.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the
Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta
* San Andres Colombia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Colombia should
monitor the progress of this system.

Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
12.0 North, longitude 72.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to
continue through tonight. Some decrease in forward speed with a
continued motion toward the west is forecast on Friday and
Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system is
approaching Central America. Weakening is expected while the
system cross Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on
Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia through this
morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Northern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will likely continue within the
warning area along the coast of northeastern Colombia for the next
few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Nicaragua and
Costa Rica by Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres
and Providencia on Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the disturbance
continues to become better defined (at least in the mid levels),
with a formative low-level center moving across the Guajira
Peninsula overnight and convective banding features to the north
just off the coast. There is still no conclusive evidence that the
circulation has closed off, but we should have a better idea of the
system's structure later today with visible imagery and a Hurricane
Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is westward, or 270/17 kt. For the next
36-48 hours, the track guidance is in excellent agreement that a
strong mid-level ridge extending southward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea is likely to force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on
a south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America.
Based on the latest guidance, the NHC track forecast has been nudged
south of the previous forecast while over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. After crossing Central America in 2-3 days, the orientation of
the ridge should cause the system to move westward and then
west-northwestward south of the coast of Mexico. No significant
changes to the official track forecast were made during this period.

In order for the system to develop a closed circulation and become a
tropical storm, the key is for it to slow down, and it appears that
will happen by 24 hours. Otherwise, warm waters and low shear
should allow for strengthening while the system moves across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. It should be noted that additional
strengthening could occur after the 36-hour forecast point until the
system makes landfall in Nicaragua or Costa Rica, and the NHC
intensity forecast is at the higher end of the guidance. After some
weakening occurs over Central America, the system is expected to
strengthen again over the eastern North Pacific, possibly becoming a
hurricane by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia
through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.

2. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch areas, respectively, along
the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected on the Colombian island of
San Andres on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.0N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/0600Z 11.5N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.1N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 11.1N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 02/1800Z 11.1N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
72H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 14.2N 100.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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