EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST...
...WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 88.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warnings along the Pacific Coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 88.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Sunday, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue
moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a
hurricane in the next couple days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: As Bonnie moves out over the Pacific, lingering rainfall
associated with the outer bands will produce another 1 to 3 inches
of rain across northwest Costa Rica, southwest Nicaragua, and
southern El Salvador through Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett



WTPZ44 KNHC 022041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and
recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to
become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center
of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's
center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB
both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification
to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track
forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer
ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns
west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly
parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official
forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in
coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should
continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any
northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.

Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as
Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For
this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models
showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA
RICA AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF EL SALVADOR THROUGH THE NIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Sunday, and that motion should
continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue
moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central
America and southern Mexico for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: As Bonnie moves out over the Pacific, rainfall associated
with the outer bands will produce another 1 to 3 inches of rain
across northwest Costa Rica, southwest Nicaragua, and southern El
Salvador through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of
flash flooding and mudslides across the region.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 22...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

This evening's conventional satellite presentation consists of an
impressive deep convective curved band with -83C cloud tops
encompassing the west side of the cyclone. Earlier SSM/S and AMSR2
microwave passes revealed inner core ring development that was about
60 percent closed in the northern quadrants. There appears to be a
slight vertical tilt toward the west, more than likely due to the
period it spent moving across Nicaragua. The initial intensity is
raised to 50 kt and is based on a compromise of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The shear is low, the water is warm, and the atmosphere is moist,
all contributing to further strengthening during the next few days,
and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in 24 hours. Around
mid-period, the global models and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity
guidance show modest northeasterly shear impinging on Bonnie's
outflow pattern. As a result, the official intensity forecast
calls for a slight weakening beyond day 3.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be due west or 270/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching from the northern Gulf of
Mexico to the Baja California peninsula should cause the cyclone to
turn west-northwestward Sunday and continue in this heading through
the remainder of the forecast period. The global and regional
model track guidance remains in agreement, and these tightly
clustered aids, as well as the NHC forecast, takes Bonnie
approximately parallel to the coasts and keeps the
tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the southern coast of
Central America and Mexico. However, interests in coastal El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should closely monitor
Bonnie's forecast track for the next few days as a slight northward
adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for
portions of this coastline.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and the southern portion of El Salvador
through tonight. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash
flooding and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any
northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.3N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 11.6N 91.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 12.4N 94.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 15.6N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.9N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.3N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:53 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA,
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 90.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 90.6 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are possible during the next
couple of days across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern and southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause some
instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Geostationary satellite imagery shows a large, persistent convective
cloud mass displaced to the west of Bonnie's low-level center by
some easterly shear. Infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -80
deg C indicate the convection remains vigorous, and it is showing
more signs of curvature in recent imagery after appearing somewhat
amorphous overnight. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or
scatterometer data are available to assess recent structural
changes. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Bonnie to strengthen
during the next few days. In the near term, the deep-layer easterly
shear is forecast to slightly diminish while Bonnie traverses warm
SSTs of 28-29 deg C within a moist mid-level environment. The
official NHC forecast calls for Bonnie to become a hurricane by
Monday and continue strengthening during the next 48 h or so. While
not explicitly forecast, the SHIPS guidance suggests some increased
potential for rapid intensification. The latest NHC forecast is
raised slightly higher than the previous one, in line with the IVCN
consensus aid. Increasing northeasterly shear and gradually cooler
SSTs along its forecast track should cause Bonnie's intensity to
level off and gradually decrease by days 4-5.

Bonnie is still moving quickly westward at 275/14 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to
the coast of southern Mexico. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement, and the latest NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one given the tightly clustered track models. Once
again, this forecast keeps the center of Bonnie far enough offshore
that the tropical-storm-force winds are not forecast to reach the
coast of Central America or Mexico at this time. However, interests
in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern and southwestern
Mexico should closely monitor updates to Bonnie's forecast track, as
a slight northward adjustment to the track could require tropical
storm watches for portions of this coastline.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico during the next couple of
days. This rainfall could cause some instances of flash flooding
and mudslides across the region.

2. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
While the center of Bonnie is forecast to stay offshore, any
northward adjustment in the track forecast could require the
issuance of a tropical storm watch for part of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 11.6N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 12.1N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.6N 98.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 15.6N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:25 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several
days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to
remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of
heavy rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of
Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images
show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of
lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave
data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established,
with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest
Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data.

The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly
shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or
so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist
air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen
through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the
SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring
within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly
shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the
system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and
perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short
term, but is otherwise unchanged.

Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in
good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various
consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for
Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there
should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the
track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this
coastline.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and
southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion should continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but
move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of extreme
southern and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Convective banding associated Bonnie has continued to increase
since the previous advisory, with the primary band now wrapping
completely around the estimated center. Visible satellite imagery
and a recent ATMS microwave overpass suggest that the inner core
also continues to become better established. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 65 and 55 kt, from TAFB and SAB respectively,
and UW/CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates have increased
to a little above 55 kt. Based on the these data, the initial
intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.

The outflow over Bonnie is still somewhat restricted over the
eastern portion of the circulation owing to some moderate easterly
shear. The shear, however, is not likely to be strong enough to
prevent strengthening, and with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere
ahead, Bonnie is forecast to steadily intensify during the next 36
hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast now calls for a little
faster rate of strengthening during the first day or so, but shows
a similar peak intensity as the previous advisory as northeasterly
shear is expected to increase over the system between 48 and 72
hours. After that time, decreasing SSTs and a drier mid-level
environment are likely to cause gradual weakening late in the
period. The updated intensity forecast is close to the ICON
consensus aid, but is a little below the SHIPS and HWRF guidance.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/15 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast philosophy. Bonnie is forecast to
remain on a west-northwestward heading to the south of a mid-level
ridge over the next several days, and this motion will steer
Bonnie generally south of, but parallel to, the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the NHC track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 99.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.7N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.6N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 17.7N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

...BONNIE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2022 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 95.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 95.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion should continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south of,
but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands north of Bonnie’s track will bring
periods of heavy showers into portions of southern Mexico through
Monday night. These bands are expected to produce between 1 and 3
inches of rain across southern Oaxaca and Guerrero, with locally
higher totals along the southernmost coastal areas in Oaxaca.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie's cloud pattern continues to become better organized on both
geostationary and microwave imagery. Cold cloud tops are beginning
to surround a ragged eye on infrared images and there is nearly a
closed ring evident from passive microwave data, indicating that
the inner core continues to become more defined. Using a blend
of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is
increased to 70 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has strong upper-level outflow over its western
semicircle and limited outflow to the east, due to moderate
easterly shear. However, this shear is not likely to offset the
otherwise conducive environmental factors of warm ocean waters and a
moist atmosphere for the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid
Intensification, RI, Index shows a little more than a 30 percent
chance of RI during the next day or so. The official intensity
forecast shows more strengthening than in the previous advisories
and is a blend of the LGEM and HWRF guidance through 48 hours, and
is close to the Decay-SHIPS model after that time interval. Gradual
weakening is likely in 3-5 days due to cooler SSTs and lower
humidities.

Bonnie moved just a bit north of the previous track, but appears to
still be on a west-northwestward heading or about 290/15 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to be
mostly maintained over the next several days. This should result in
a continued west-northwestward or westward motion through the
forecast period. The official track forecast follows the
multi-model consensus and keeps the hurricane moving parallel to and
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala
through tonight and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.2N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.7N 97.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 103.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.4N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 17.1N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 3:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 97.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through midweek. On the forecast
track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but
remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

The satellite presentation of Bonnie is less organized than last
night. The hurricane is still contending with some deep-layer
northeasterly shear, as evidenced by the sharp cloud edge noted on
the upshear side of its circulation. Additionally, the ragged eye
previously seen in infrared imagery degraded overnight, and the
inner core convection has been reduced to a curved convective band
that wraps around the eastern and southern portions of the center.
There are no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to
better assess changes in Bonnie's structure this morning. The latest
objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 53 to 77 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 70 kt.

Despite the presence of 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear over Bonnie,
the hurricane still has a window to strengthen during the next
couple of days. Bonnie is expected to remain within a moist
mid-level environment over very warm SSTs through Wednesday, and the
majority of the intensity guidance still supports some strengthening
within these favorable environmental conditions. However, rapid
intensification appears somewhat less likely based on decreasing
values in the latest SHIPS RI and DTOPS indices. The official NHC
intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but
still lies on the high end of the guidance during the first 48 h,
closest to the DSHP and LGEM aids. Thereafter, the intensity is
forecast to level off and eventually weaken as the system moves into
a drier environment over cooler SSTs. The latter half of the NHC
forecast trends closer to the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion of Bonnie is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 285/16 kt. There are no changes to the track forecast reasoning.
Bonnie is expected to continue moving generally west-northwestward
for the next couple of days, roughly parallel to but well offshore
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC track
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it remains
close to the TVCE consensus aid. This forecast track keeps
tropical-storm-force winds associated with Bonnie offshore the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico, but coastal locations can still
expect rough surf and the potential for rip currents today and
Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 99.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 104.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.2N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 16.4N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:50 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENING...
...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 99.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
today, followed by little overall change in intensity Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved this morning with a
ragged eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible
satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass that
arrived after the release of the previous advisory, and more
recent SSMIS imagery revealed a fairly well-defined low- to
mid-level eye feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB
and SAB are T4.5 or 77 kt. Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are
lagging a bit, but recent raw T-numbers have increased as the eye
has become better defined. The advisory intensity is set at 80
kt, near the higher end of the estimates due to the continued
improvement in structure.

Bonnie's intensity forecast is a bit tricky this morning as
expected subtle changes in shear throughout the forecast
period could have larger-than-normal implications on the
forecast. In the very near term, some additional strengthening is
likely while Bonnie remains within an area of moderate northeasterly
shear and otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The NHC
wind speed forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the
first 12-24 hours given the recent upward trend in organization. The
shear is forecast to increase on Tuesday, which the guidance
suggests will cause Bonnie's intensity to plateau or perhaps
fluctuate over the next 2-3 days. By 72 hours, global models now
indicate that the shear will decrease while the system is still
over marginally warm water. As a result, the NHC forecast keeps
Bonnie's intensity slightly higher through 96 h than the previous
advisory. Shortly after that time, rapid weakening is likely to
begin as the cyclone moves over waters less than 26C and into a
less favorable thermodynamic environment.

Bonnie is moving briskly westward to west-northwestward with a
longer term motion of 285/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning has
not changed over the past day or so. Bonnie should continue to
move generally west-northwestward with some reduction in forward
speed while it is steered by a large mid-level to the north. This
motion will take Bonnie roughly parallel to but well offshore the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two. The latest NHC track forecast is again an update of the
previous advisory, and it remains close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus aid.

The forecast keeps tropical-storm-force winds associated with
Bonnie offshore the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, but
coastal locations can still expect rough surf and the potential for
rip currents today and Tuesday as Bonnie passes offshore.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.7N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.4N 101.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.1N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.4N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.1N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...BRINGING ROUGH SURF AND THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 100.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 100.3 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west to west-
northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the
coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or
two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight, followed by little overall change in intensity
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well
organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye
and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better
established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt
and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial
intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data.

Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged
over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could
strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the
intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it
seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early
Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will
likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the
15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday,
but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters,
especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest
little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady
weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier
air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the
guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48
hours.

The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest
side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is
expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to
west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some
speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show
a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

...BONNIE STRENGTHENS FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 101.4 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or westward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain
south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tomorrow morning, followed by little change in intensity
until Wednesday. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin
thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Bonnie continues to gradually
strengthen this evening. A 0112 UTC SSMIS microwave pass reveals a
compact inner core with an eye less than 10 nm. Upper-level outflow
and convective banding appears to be fairly well-defined over the
western and southern quadrants of the storm. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity
has been increased to 90 kt in favor of the higher estimate, based
on increasingly cold cloud tops near the core.

Bonnie is expected to be in a relatively conducive environment for
the next day or so. Based on current satellite trends, some
additional strengthening seems likely. However, most of the
intensity guidance does not show significant intensification beyond
24 hours, possibly due to the moderate vertical shear in the
near-storm environment. By Wednesday, the wind shear is expected to
decrease, but lower mid-level relative humidities and cooling sea
surface temperatures should become a limiting factor. Therefore,
the official forecast shows some additional short-term strengthening
followed by gradual weakening. This forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.

The storm has jogged a little to the north in the past few hours,
but the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at 14 kt.
Bonnie is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north and
north-northeast which is expected to build westward and keep the
system on a general west-northward trajectory. The NHC track
prediction is shifted slightly north of the previous one on account
of the shorter-term northward shift, and is very near the consensus
model forecast.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.5N 101.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.5N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 19.7N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:25 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 103.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 103.2 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south
of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next
day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Thursday.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy
rainfall during the next day or so across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

While Bonnie continues to generate well-organized central
convection with cloud tops temperatures near -80C, the eye has
become less distinct over the past several hours. There has been
little change in the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt in best
agreement with subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

The hurricane is starting to experience moderate northerly to
northeasterly shear, and this will likely continue through the next
24-36 h. The shear is expected to limit additional strengthening,
and the new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
guidance in calling for a 90-95 kt intensity during this time.
After 36 h, the shear is forecast to diminish, but by that time
Bonnie will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into
a drier air mass. This should lead to gradual weakening starting
after 60 h and continuing for the remainder of the forecast period.

The initial motion is 290/15 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane should cause a general west-northwestward to
westward motion through the forecast period, with a slowing of the
forward speed during the first 48 h as the cyclone passes to the
south of a weakness in the ridge. The new forecast track is in the
center of the tightly-clustered track guidance and lies close to
the various consensus models.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.1N 103.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.5N 105.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.2N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 20.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to move parallel
to, but remain south of the coast of southwestern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
are possible through Thursday. A gradual weakening trend is
expected to begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core
structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band
features in the west and south parts of the cyclone. The
surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few
hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much. The initial
intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported
by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB.

It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun
to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone,
and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours.
Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in
12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement.
Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and
ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler
oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable
thermodynamic surrounding environment. A combination of these
negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly
weaken through the remainder of the period and the official
forecast follows suit.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone
should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the
entire forecast period. Around mid-period, however, a weakness in
the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California
peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed.
The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond
day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...LARGE SWELLS FROM BONNIE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.7W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.7 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the period with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin Wednesday or
Wednesday night and continue through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

SSMIS microwave data received after the release of the previous
advisory showed that the eye of Bonnie became less defined than
overnight. Although the eye is still evident in visible imagery,
it is less distinct in infrared satellite pictures than early
today. The surrounding cloud tops remain quite cold and subjective
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are
unchanged from this morning. As a result, the initial intensity is
held at 100 kt for this advisory.

Moderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone is likely to prevent
additional strengthening and little overall change in intensity is
expected through early Wednesday. After that time, gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and lower mid-level humidity is
likely to result in slow weakening. The pace of weakening is
expected to hasten in 60-72 h when Bonnie crosses the 26C isotherm
and moves into a drier and more stable air mass. Steady-to-rapid
weakening is then expected through the remainder of the period and
Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by day 5.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. There continues
to be no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge
to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Bonnie west to
west-northwestward throughout the entire forecast period. However,
some reduction in forecast speed is forecast during the next day or
two as the ridge weakens slightly. Later in the period, a faster
forward speed is forecast when Bonnie weakens and is steered more
by the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC forecast track is slightly
faster than the previous advisory beyond 72 hours, but remains
in best agreement with the multi-model consensus aids.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 20.5N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022

...BONNIE SENDS ROUGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a
slight decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and continue through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci





Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous
advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some
moderate north-northeasterly shear. The eye has filled in and the
colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the
western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the
recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery.
Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is
forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely
prevent Bonnie from strengthening further. The storm is then
expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in
water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move
over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening. Bonnie is
now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent
with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global
models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the
previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered
initial intensity.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is
forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly
reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days. As
the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to
turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the
lower-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 5:10 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 108.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 108.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is forecast through the week with a slight
decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday
night and continue through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Bonnie continues to feel the effects of north-northeasterly shear,
with the central convection becoming less organized during the past
few hours. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have trended downward since the last advisory,
and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. This
could be a little generous, as the CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates
are currently 65-70 kt

The current shear is likely to diminish during the next 24 h.
However, the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease
along the forecast track, with the cyclone reaching the 26C
isotherm in about 48 h and moving over colder water after that. In
addition, Bonnie is likely to encounter a much drier air mass after
about 24 h. The new intensity forecast now calls for Bobbie to
change little in strength during the next 24-36 h, followed by
steady weakening. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical
in about 96 h and to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
120 h. The new intensity forecast has some downward adjustments
from the previous forecast and follows the general trend of the
intensity guidance.

Bonnie is moving 280/12 kt along the southern periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to weaken a
bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of
the system for a couple of days. Later in the forecast period,
Bonnie is expected to weaken and become a shallow circulation,
which would result in the cyclone turning westward and accelerating
in the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is an
update of the previous track and lies near the consensus models,
which are between the slightly faster UKMET and the slightly slower
GFS.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.9N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:50 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving
a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an
increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible
today. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight
continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's
inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first
light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a
partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through
southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie
attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top
temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this
advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity
estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all
quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and
subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast.

The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to
make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also
contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The
NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is
based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid.
Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier,
and open into a trough of low pressure early next week.

Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly
mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There
are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone
should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion
with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The
official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory
and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 110.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to commence later tonight, and
continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since
this morning. At times, the small eye has become a little more
distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then
becomes cloud filled. This has led to a waffling of subjective
Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the
infrared eye temperature of each picture. Objective numbers
remain lower, but have increased somewhat today. The initial
intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest
SAB Dvorak classification. Recent scatterometer data have helped
confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.

Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable
environment which is likely to begin the weakening process.
After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie
moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is
forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate
by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance.

Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at
about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during
the next couple of days. A faster and more westward motion is
likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level
trade wind flow. The new forecast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

...BONNIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to
the effects of northwesterly wind shear. Satellite infrared
imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of
-80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the
recent reduction of inner core convective organization. This is
between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie.
This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm
gradually. Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross
into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken
the rate of weakening. Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical
by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner. The
official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and
lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance.

The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12
kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. This
synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the
shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The
updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from
the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:23 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 112.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to
weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post-
tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven





Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

The convection associated with Bonnie is gradually losing
organization as the cyclone continues to feel the effects of shear
and moves over cooler waters. However, while there has been no
distinguishable eye feature for several hours in IR imagery, a
just-received GMI 37 GHz microwave overpass shows a well-defined
low-level eye under the convective overcast. Objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 60-90 kt, which
is a greater than normal spread. However, the estimates are
trending downward, and based on this the initial intensity is
decreased to an uncertain 80 kt. The 34-kt wind radii have been
reduced based on recent scatterometer data.

Bonnie is moving over progressively cooler water and into a dry
air mass. This combination should cause steady to rapid weakening.
Current expectations are that Bonnie will stop producing convection
between 48-60 h and become a post-tropical cyclone. The system is
expected to decay to a remnant low by 72 h, and the dynamical
models are in good agreement that it will weaken to a trough by 96
h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
intensity guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.

The initial motion is 290/12 kt as Bonnie is steered by a mid-level
ridge to its north. There is no change to the track forecast
philosophy and little change to the forecast from the previous
advisory. The ridge is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward
for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the
resulting shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind
flow. The new track forecast lies in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.7N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.0N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.6N 124.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 19.9N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:44 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 113.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 113.7 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to
weaken below hurricane strength by Friday and become a post-
tropical cyclone by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much
this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a
well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented
over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an
intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later
today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next
24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid
weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite
imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce
deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for
Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin
down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate
into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3.

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm
westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to
accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the
stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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