ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

[underthwx]

95L looking like it needs a Gatorade or something, not too impressive atm, which is cool with me...but I do hope for some rain, just like everyone else does...

Heading towards DMIN. This is not unusual for the convection to wane a little. Imo, I think this will be Bonnie or Colin at landfall.

I agree, especially with the water temps being what they are... Thanks for the reply

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Tireman4]

Bear Watch continues..

[captainbarbossa19]

I believe I see multiple vortices on satellite this afternoon. I have one placed around 26.8 N, 92.5 W. The other one is about 27.7 N, 92.7 W. The one further north may become dominant if convection trends continue.

[SoupBone]

2 PM TWO:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or
west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next
two days. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

"short-lived tropical depression"

Yeah, that sounds about right.

[Hammy]

Not sure why the chances are increased, not even the NAM is developing it.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not sure why the chances are increased, not even the NAM is developing it.

They are probably looking at observational trends. Something is trying to spin-up regardless of what the models are showing.

[jaguars_22]

Latest visible is showing some storms beginning to pop closer to the center of Low pressure. It doesn’t look to be in a hurry either moving very slowly if not stationary!!

[Zonacane]

Latest visible is showing some storms beginning to pop closer to the center of Low pressure. It doesn’t look to be in a hurry either moving very slowly if not stationary!!

Don't like something with this much time over the Gulf

[wxman57]

Weak low or short-lived depression, makes no difference. The main benefit will be rainfall.

[SoupBone]

Weak low or short-lived depression, makes no difference. The main benefit will be rainfall.

I like your choice of words. Benefit is very accurate.

[TexasF6]

We need that rain in Central Texas!!!!!

[wxman22]

WPC has increased QPF in there forecast.

[SoupBone]

WPC has increased QPF in there forecast.

https://i.ibb.co/mCZm5gh/wx.png

I wish it wasn't over the 4th of July weekend, but we'll take it.

[Iceresistance]

We need that rain in Central Texas!!!!!

So do I! I haven't had rainfall in weeks!

[captainbarbossa19]

Convection appears to be persisting right now. This is interesting since we are approaching DMIN. This thing could really start developing at DMAX if trends continue.

[wxman57]

I can see two distinct swirls on high-res visible. Neither is getting any better-defined. Convection is being stripped away to the NE.

[bohai]

70 milo NW of San Antonio. 2.93" since Jan 1. In exceptional drought. No lawn watering's, only watering allowed is drip irrigation or hand. Could definitely use the rain

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-
southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day
or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could
become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it
moves inland on Wednesday night or Thursday Regardless of
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the
Texas coast later this week. For more information about the
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 265N, 932W, 20, 1013, LO