ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

It is looking like a decent low at the surface. I think they might upgrade to a TD depending on how the rest of the recon goes.

[cycloneye]

Change of the wind directions.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Are we about to get a 1018mb td
The pressure is actually around 1014mb but still that’s very high.

[Aric Dunn]

Are we about to get a 1018mb td

looks about 1012 to 1014

[jaguars_22]

Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!

[underthwx]

Are we about to get a 1018mb td

looks about 1012 to 1014

How many millibars is needed to classify a depression?

[Aric Dunn]

Are we about to get a 1018mb td

looks about 1012 to 1014

How many millibars is needed to classify a depression?

There is none. background pressures are high so the ratio is normal.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!

it could very well reform/take over to the NE for sure.

[underthwx]

Aric! I’m wondering if the “center” is further north and they missed it first pass… this system is crawling!!!

it could very well reform/take over to the NE for sure.

I wondered about that as well

[underthwx]

I suppose it's possible, that 95L remains a wave, or disturbance, and doesn't attain TD status before moving ashore?

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.

[jaguars_22]

Idk I see 2 areas like wxman mentioned yesterday. I see one east of Brownsville with a curvature to the thunderstorms and I see another where u mentioned aric! That’s the issue here they are both fighting each other. Here in Victoria it looks like we will miss the rain if the system comes directly over us.

[underthwx]

Still 40% as of 2pm NHC outlook

[Tireman4]

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since
this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near
the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible
along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SoupBone]

Still 40% as of 2pm NHC outlook

Yup, no real surprise I think. It's going to run out of time soon if it doesn't get its act together.

[underthwx]

It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.

https://i.ibb.co/w4s2tvK/Screenshot-2022-06-29-120649.png

Aric, would a "center" relocation, change the current forecast track and possible affected areas?...for example, an eastward shift in track, possibly towards the North Central gulf coast etc?.....to my untrained eye, it seems as if 95L is basically going nowhere fast, which gives it plenty of time for relocation of centers, and so on...and adds to the possibilities, and uncertainty with 95L

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the deep convection and growing meso vort to the north east of corpus cristi is beginning to win out.. several surface obs have begun to switch indicating a relocation possibly in process. better upper divergence to the north will help it out.

https://i.ibb.co/w4s2tvK/Screenshot-2022-06-29-120649.png

Aric, would a "center" relocation, change the current forecast track and possible affected areas?...for example, an eastward shift in track, etc?.....to my untrained eye, it seems as if 95L is basically going nowhere fast, which gives it plenty of time for relocation of centers, and so on...and adds to the possibilities, and uncertainty with 95L

it would just delay the timing for moving inland.. a little more north than currently depicted.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's a loop of 95L source - https://col.st/TUs1m

Fixed, posted wrong link

[wxman57]

Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.

[galaxy401]

Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.

I was actually thinking that earlier as well. It'll be a little funny seeing two Twos on the map.