ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#41 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 95, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 265N, 932W, 20, 1013, LO


CE....if I may ask, could you please explain what that means?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#42 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:13 pm

95L looking a bit less organized on satellite imagery this evening, I assume from the loss of daytime heating?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#43 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:24 pm

underthwx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 95, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 265N, 932W, 20, 1013, LO


CE....if I may ask, could you please explain what that means?


That is the best track data of the winds,pressure and position that comes out with every invest and tropical cyclone.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#44 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:28 pm

underthwx wrote:95L looking a bit less organized on satellite imagery this evening, I assume from the loss of daytime heating?


DMIN. It may look completely different around 6 or 7 am.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#45 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:35 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
underthwx wrote:95L looking a bit less organized on satellite imagery this evening, I assume from the loss of daytime heating?


DMIN. It may look completely different around 6 or 7 am.


True that...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#46 Postby Craters » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:38 pm

underthwx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 95, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 265N, 932W, 20, 1013, LO


CE....if I may ask, could you please explain what that means?


Underthwx --
Take a look here https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abdeck.txt for probably more than you want to know. To attempt a quick summary (referring to cycloneye's data listing):

Al = Atlantic Basin
95 = Invest 95
2022062900 = data and time it was issued (June 26, 2022, 00Z)
[blank] = "objective technique sorting number, minutes for best track: 00 - 99" [I don't know why it's blank here.]
BEST = Best track data (Duh.)
0 = "forecast period," which is always 0 for best track data (I'm guessing because it's an instantaneous measurement and the time is given in the third data group.)
265N = Latitude of the system (26.5 N)
932W = Longitude of the system (93.2W)
20 = Maximum sustained wind speed in knots
1013 = Minimum sea-level pressure in millibars (1 atmosphere = 1013.25 millibars, so 95L was barely a low at the time, technically speaking.)
LO = highest level of tropical-cyclone development, in this case, just a low

Hope that helps...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#47 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:47 pm

Craters wrote:
underthwx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
AL, 95, 2022062900, , BEST, 0, 265N, 932W, 20, 1013, LO


CE....if I may ask, could you please explain what that means?


Underthwx --
Take a look here https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abdeck.txt for probably more than you want to know. To attempt a quick summary (referring to cycloneye's data listing):

Al = Atlantic Basin
95 = Invest 95
2022062900 = data and time it was issued (June 26, 2022, 00Z)
[blank] = "objective technique sorting number, minutes for best track: 00 - 99" [I don't know why it's blank here.]
BEST = Best track data (Duh.)
0 = "forecast period," which is always 0 for best track data (I'm guessing because it's an instantaneous measurement and the time is given in the third data group.)
265N = Latitude of the system (26.5 N)
932W = Longitude of the system (93.2W)
20 = Maximum sustained wind speed in knots
1013 = Minimum sea-level pressure in millibars (1 atmosphere = 1013.25 millibars, so 95L was barely a low at the time, technically speaking.)
LO = highest level of tropical-cyclone development, in this case, just a low

Hope that helps...


I appreciate your reply...that's a big help!...Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#48 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:29 am

Obs indicate SE wind 10-15 kt across the NW Gulf this morning. A very weak surface low may form before it moves into the TX coast tomorrow. No wind threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:31 am

8 AM TWO.

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of
Texas today. The disturbance has not become any better organized
since yesterday, however some slow development is still possible and
it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast
before it moves inland tonight or early Thursday. Regardless of
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas
coast for the next few days. For more information about the
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your
National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#50 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:38 am

Closed Circ since yesterday though it was elongated. Becoming more defined this morning with increasing convection and lowering shear.

NW winds along the southern texas coast. Surface obs showing a tightening LLC with convection building around it. should be a TD today ( technically could be classified as one now) when recon arrives later( assuming convection does not collapse).

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#51 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:05 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
underthwx wrote:95L looking a bit less organized on satellite imagery this evening, I assume from the loss of daytime heating?


DMIN. It may look completely different around 6 or 7 am.


And right you are...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#52 Postby weeniepatrol » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:19 am

underthwx wrote:I appreciate your reply...that's a big help!...Thanks!


Here's an additional pertinent source just to add to the conversation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-format-atl-1851-2021.pdf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#53 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:20 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
underthwx wrote:I appreciate your reply...that's a big help!...Thanks!


Here's an additional pertinent source just to add to the conversation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-format-atl-1851-2021.pdf


Thanks for that, for taking the time to do that, one of the many reasons why I love 2K, is all of you out there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#54 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:49 am

95L looking like it had its Wheaties this morning, much healthier looking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#55 Postby kaystorm94 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:04 am

lrak wrote:
SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.


Yeah going to be a slow thread for a while, I think STORM2K has maybe 3 members south of Victoria/Laredo line.


South Victoria county resident here. Finally received a chunk of rain these past 2 days. It was really nice, but we need more. My family and I just got back from the very dry Frio in Concan.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#56 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:07 am

Not impressed at all with its appearance today. Could be a weak swirl or two out there, but it's not a depression. Winds generally 10-15 kts across the NW Gulf, though a heavy thunderstorm at one rig is producing a wind to 25 kts. There's a chance the NHC could call it a TD tomorrow as it moves inland. Won't make any difference. No wind, just well-needed rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#57 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:12 am

wxman57 wrote:Not impressed at all with its appearance today. Could be a weak swirl or two out there, but it's not a depression. Winds generally 10-15 kts across the NW Gulf, though a heavy thunderstorm at one rig is producing a wind to 25 kts. There's a chance the NHC could call it a TD tomorrow as it moves inland. Won't make any difference. No wind, just well-needed rain.


That sounds good xman....just some rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#58 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:27 am

Shear seems to be relaxing for now. Upper level cirrus are expanding in more directions than just the northeast. This could allow for a little more organization today. Still looks broad but more thunderstorms seem to be tightening it up slowly. I like the chances of development today more than yesterday. Convective trends will be important today. Land will likely rob focus of energy today as it heats up and thunderstorms focus inland. If enough thunderstorms can persist today over the Gulf near the low, it might can continue to tighten enough to make a run at TC classification.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#59 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:34 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#60 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:38 am

Deep convection east of Corpus cristi is starting to show signs of a meso vort taking shape. llc to the south may swing ene a little... low shear. has a decent shot.

some surface obs off shore in the convection 30mph gusting to 40 mph.
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