EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: NINE-E - Tropical Depression

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:05 pm

Hard to believe shear is only 10 knots given how much trouble this has had at building convection. This is also moving faster than expected, limiting time over warm SSTs.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HOWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Since this morning, convection has been attempting to build over the
northern semicircle of the cyclone. While the low-level circulation
remains partially exposed to the south, the coldest cloud tops below
-70 C have rotated cyclonically in the up-shear direction, which
could foreshadow an attempt of the mid-level center aligning with
the low-level center in the future. Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates this afternoon were a consensus T2.5/35 kt.
Consequently, Tropical Depression Nine-E has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Howard with 35 kt winds this advisory.

The storm has continued a general motion to the northwest, estimated
at 315/10 kt. The track philosophy has not changed much today, as
Howard should continue to move northwestward into a relative
weakness in the mid-level ridging. The track guidance this cycle has
taken a noticeable shift to the northwest over the first 24-48 hours
of the forecast, and the latest NHC track has also been shifted in
that direction. Thereafter, Howard is likely to become vertically
shallow, and increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The track
forecast after 48 hours shows a bend westward in response to
this transition, and follows closely with the consensus aids HCCA
and TVCE.

The short-term intensity forecast is interesting. While Howard is
clearly still feeling some effects of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, the deepest convection has pivoted into the northern side of
the storm. This could be the first signs that the upper-level trough
to the west of Howard is starting to weaken and shift away from the
storm. In addition, the raw model output grids of the GFS, ECMWF,
and HWRF all suggest some sort of center reformation or relocation
under the convection between 12-36 hours. This process may help to
align the low and mid-level centers of the storm. This improved
structure would also likely result in more intensification than
previously shown, and the latest intensity forecast now takes Howard
up to 50 kt in 36 hours. After that, the storm will be crossing a
sharp sea surface temperature gradient and moving into a more stable
environment, ultimately leading to steady weakening and its demise
as a tropical cyclone by 96 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast
has a higher peak than before, but is still a tad under the latest
HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.6N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.0N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.6N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.8N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#43 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:37 pm

aspen wrote:This will almost certainly run into the same shear and dry air problems as every other La Niña EPac storm in this part of the basin — Cristinia, Estelle, Frank, etc. Probably another decent Cat 1 at most.

Wow that was a massive overestimate lol
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:48 pm

EP, 09, 2022080800, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1113W, 35, 1004, TS
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:52 pm

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The overall appearance of Howard has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the center of the cyclone tucked underneath the
southern edge of a mass of intense deep convection. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are
all in agreement that the system remains a 35-kt tropical storm.
However, the recent trend in organization suggests some
strengthening may be soon underway. An automated weather station on
Socorro Island this evening measured peak sustained wind speeds of
36 kt and a gust to 49 kt, while the center of Howard's circulation
passed about 50 n mi to the south-southwest of that location.

Howard continues its northwestern heading, or 315/11 kt to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue
over the next couple of days. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected
to turn toward the west as the weakening system becomes steered
by the large-scale low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast
is little changed from the previous one and is near the tightly
clustered track guidance.

The storm has about 36-48 h to take advantage of warm SSTs, a moist
atmospheric environment, and weak vertical wind shear. After that
time the forecast path of the cyclone takes it over progressively
cooler waters and into a much drier and more stable airmass. The
NHC forecast calls for some modest strengthening through 36 h, then
steady weakening commencing after that time. The forecast also
indicates that the system will degenerate into a remnant low by 96h.
However, the both the CMC and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery
suggest that this could occur as soon as 60 h from now. The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the various multi-model
consensus solutions, and lower than the HWRF and GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:28 am

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard appears to be continuing its strengthening trend. A
scatterometer pass at 0507 UTC revealed surface wind speeds peaking
around 40 kts in the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
satellite data also revealed the tropical storm to be quite a bit
smaller than originally estimated. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB both support an intensity of 45 kt. Given the
potential for the scatterometer to under sample winds in a smaller
storm, the initial intensity has been increased to matched the
Dvorak estimates.

The window for additional potential strengthening is growing
shorter. SHIPS model guidance indicates Howard should move over
the 26 degree Celsius sea surface isotherm in about 24 hours. The
global models forecast the vertical wind shear to increase and the
surrounding environmental relative humidities to decrease. The
combination of these oceanic and atmospheric conditions should
induce a weakening trend. The official forecast predicts
Howard to plateau in intensity at 50 kt and become post-tropical
by 60 hours.

The reasoning behind the track forecast is unchanged. The tropical
storm is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest periphery
of a mid-level ridge. When Howard weakens, the cyclone is expected
to turn westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The updated
track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and
remains close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.8N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.6N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.3N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 24.6N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:32 am

EP, 09, 2022080812, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1131W, 55, 996, TS
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:52 am

TXPZ21 KNES 081201
TCSENP

A. 09E (HOWARD)

B. 08/1130Z

C. 19.7N

D. 113.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A 24HR DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH DT. THE FT IS BASED ON THE
PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:49 am

Now is forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better
organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received
an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly
closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had
developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite
imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with
colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at
1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this
advisory.

Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track
guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion
will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm
should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of
the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in
that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE
and HCCA.

Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the
improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial
intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the
previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later
today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling
SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear
also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest
intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours.
This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first
day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:19 am

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 10:32 am

Finally taking advantage of the favorable conditions I was talking about a few days back with convection actually rotating around the center, though the trough that was shearing it 10 knots earlier being destroyed by Howard’s outflow hasn’t hurt.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:34 am

Needs colder cloud tops to get a 4 0 though. Running out of OHC.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:34 am

Of course it decides to RI right before reaching cooler waters after struggling with shear most of its life.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:56 am

Howard has another 12 hours to continue to RI. Had this moved a little slower or more leftward probably would have made a run at major but a 75 knot hurricane seems the most plausible high end outcome here.
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:33 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 081756
TCSENP

A. 09E (HOWARD)

B. 08/1730Z

C. 20.3N

D. 113.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...14/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED
ON A 24HR RAPID DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT AGREES WITH THE MET. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:35 pm

EP, 09, 2022080818, , BEST, 0, 203N, 1139W, 65, 990, HU
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:41 pm

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:42 pm

Yeah about 60-65kts is a good estimate here.

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:47 pm

Why Howard! You could’ve been great, but you took too long!
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