ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Recon still supports cat 4 intensity on this pass.

[syfr]

If someone has a reference explaining how storms like Fiona can maintain hurricane force winds in the cooler waters of the northern latitudes I'd love to read about it. Thank you.

[Iceresistance]

If someone has a reference explaining how storms like Fiona can maintain hurricane force winds in the cooler waters of the northern latitudes I'd love to read about it. Thank you.

Unusually warm Subtropics combined with baroclinic forcing.

[cycloneye]

Interesting data of landfalls in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

 https://twitter.com/CycloneHistory/status/1573367666886197248

[Category5Kaiju]

Food for thought: there is a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane that is closer to New York City than to Miami.

[LAwxrgal]

I realize I have a lot to learn about tropical meteorology... but how is this storm maintaining major hurricane strength in the cold north Atlantic waters

My thoughts are with those folks up in eastern Canada, they've never been through anything remotely like this. I hope the forecasts are wrong and the impacts aren't as great as feared.

Safe to say, even with what was done in Puerto Rico, this is likely the first and last hurricane named "Fiona."

[tolakram]

I realize I have a lot to learn about tropical meteorology... but how is this storm maintaining major hurricane strength in the cold north Atlantic waters

My thoughts are with those folks up in eastern Canada, they've never been through anything remotely like this. I hope the forecasts are wrong and the impacts aren't as great as feared.

Safe to say, even with what was done in Puerto Rico, this is likely the first and last hurricane named "Fiona."

The 'cold' Atlantic waters are way above normal temperature this year.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm hunkered down just outside of Sydney, Cape Breton.

Hoping for a wild, but hopefully not too destructive night. Surge is going to be a big problem, can't wait to see if she can break the 940 MB Canadian record.

[tolakram]

Floater visible

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[SconnieCane]

Eye appears to have collapsed. Looking unlikely those extreme (sub-930 at NS landfall) modeled pressures will verify.

[PavelGaborik10]

Eye appears to have collapsed. Looking unlikely those extreme (sub-930 at NS landfall) modeled pressures will verify.

Fiona was not expected to be warm core when she was hitting those pressures.

In fact, the baroclinic deepening due to the interaction with the trough is literally the only shot she has at hitting anywhere near 930 MB.

[Dean_175]

I realize I have a lot to learn about tropical meteorology... but how is this storm maintaining major hurricane strength in the cold north Atlantic waters

My thoughts are with those folks up in eastern Canada, they've never been through anything remotely like this. I hope the forecasts are wrong and the impacts aren't as great as feared.

Safe to say, even with what was done in Puerto Rico, this is likely the first and last hurricane named "Fiona."

Maximum potential intensity map for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot The area where Fiona is can support a low end cat4.

[Teban54]

Here's a tweet from when Earl was forecast to peak as a Cat 4 (which obviously didn't verify):
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1567582418231762947?t=EtgdN6Jz3bY-BrwL1wA66A&s=19
Fiona's current position (35.9N 64.2W) as a Cat 4 isn't as extraordinary, but it's still in quite an elusive category.

Turns out Tomer Burg himself posted an updated version of this:
 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1573331319534546946

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Fiona might actually miss Nova Scotia due to the continued NE movement. Newfoundland might be the point of landfall now.

[brad512]

Fiona might actually miss Nova Scotia due to the continued NE movement. Newfoundland might be the point of landfall now.

Im watching the COD floaters and in the last few frames it seems like it finally might be turning more North now? A bit harder to see where the center is now though with the eye gone.

[BobHarlem]

Fiona might actually miss Nova Scotia due to the continued NE movement. Newfoundland might be the point of landfall now.

Models were expecting a pinwheel back west Sandy style closer to land.

[IcyTundra]

Fiona hit 25 ACE today quite impressive for a storm most models didn’t even pick up on.

[CrazyC83]

Fiona might actually miss Nova Scotia due to the continued NE movement. Newfoundland might be the point of landfall now.

Models were expecting a pinwheel back west Sandy style closer to land.

Yes, but not nearly as sharp of a turn. Something more like the 1938 hurricane.

[SecondBreakfast]

Thanks, I hate it.

Food for thought: there is a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane that is closer to New York City than to Miami.