ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:46 am

AL, 96, 2022091312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 443W, 15, 1011, DB, 3, 0, 1012, 140, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al772022 to al962022



https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962022.dat

Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this wave.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122959

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:56 am

cycloneye wrote:
AL, 96, 2022091312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 443W, 15, 1011, DB, 3, 0, 1012, 140, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al772022 to al962022


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962022.dat


Right as the convection poofs and Euro drops it. Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:00 am

Convection still a bit of a mess, but re-firing on the NW part.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:06 am

BobHarlem wrote:Convection still a bit of a mess, but re-firing on the NW part.

https://i.imgur.com/euvf3qq.gif


That’s old.


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:10 am

Latest.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:10 am

FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:12 am

cycloneye wrote:Latest.

https://i.imgur.com/0KugMsT.gif


Luis this is updated. Convection has all but collapsed.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:17 am

Yep a lot of sites using the other datasets are stuck on 8:55UTC, here's a loop with latest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:17 am

There are delays in some satelite outlets. This from Tropical Tidbits=[automated message] GOES data is running behind and images may be delayed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:23 am

Typical of invests this year. They just collapse either on satellite imagery or on the models once they’re designated.

If this has any shot down the road, then the HWRF might latch on to it whenever it starts running. Also, the waning convection might just be due to the diurnal cycle, because this flared up like crazy after sunset last night.
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:39 am

aspen wrote:Typical of invests this year. They just collapse either on satellite imagery or on the models once they’re designated.

If this has any shot down the road, then the HWRF might latch on to it whenever it starts running. Also, the waning convection might just be due to the diurnal cycle, because this flared up like crazy after sunset last night.

It had a little burst yesterday (i think because of a ULAC?) to which the 18Z models reacted aggressively and got everyone excited but it has a ton of dry air to it’s west which is slowly killing it and the ridging right now suggests a collision course with Hispaniola which would be the end of it.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1569662418019557377





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Last edited by skyline385 on Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:42 am

Here’s more bad news for 96L

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1569678348670095360





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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:50 am

The NRL satelite is updating.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:52 am

skyline385 wrote:Here’s more bad news for 96L

https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1569678348670095360?s=46&t=N4y21vB8UkBoHgiDQjMjcQ


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That's an interesting setup, really is going to depend on timing and track though, there's a window where that could actually help outflow, but odds aren't great it'll hit that sweet spot.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:55 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:05 am

Don't expect this to do much until 55-60W or so. Then the question remains whether or not it can gain enough latitude to avoid Hispaniola. And yeah conditions aren't exactly optimal. Lots of question marks surrounding this one. Regardless the Antilles should expect impacts of some sort obviously.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:19 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Don't expect this to do much until 55-60W or so. Then the question remains whether or not it can gain enough latitude to avoid Hispaniola. And yeah conditions aren't exactly optimal. Lots of question marks surrounding this one. Regardless the Antilles should expect impacts of some sort obviously.


A good deal of rain is expected here in Puerto Rico.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:23 am

cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Don't expect this to do much until 55-60W or so. Then the question remains whether or not it can gain enough latitude to avoid Hispaniola. And yeah conditions aren't exactly optimal. Lots of question marks surrounding this one. Regardless the Antilles should expect impacts of some sort obviously.


A good deal of rain is expected here in Puerto Rico.

https://i.imgur.com/xiwNirr.jpg


Wow, that is a tremendous amount of rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:24 am

Ton of questions with this one, but it could end up being interesting down the road. Shouldn't do much in the near term though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:30 am

Image
Definitely has the look.
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