ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1421 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:39 am

Fiona has some weird dry/squished section on its NW side, which is why, combined with the eye shrinking and warming, I thought an EWRC was imminent. Recon didn't show any convincing signs of one and the eye is a little clearer now.
Image

Fiona will be going through a patch of warmer SSTs with higher MPIs during the next 24 hours. Assuming it gets over whatever internal structure dynamics it might be going through, it could have the opportunity to peak as a sub-930mb Cat 4 by sometime before noon tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1422 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:40 am

Clearly getting some shear right now. Odd to me that it seems to be northerly, I figured it would still be out of the SW.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1423 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:10 am

TheDreamTraveler wrote:May not be the prettiest cat 4 but can't really complain given this entire season so far lol

It was looking much better last night despite lower intensity. If that was during daytime, we would have gotten some eye candy satellite images.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1424 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:31 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1425 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:22 am

Shear probably peaked around 0600 UTC (9 hours ago) at 25 kt and is now decreasing. As of 0900 UTC (6 hours ago, the last update I could find) it was already down to a little less than 20 kt. Presentation always lags a bit behind the shear values, but Fiona's NW side is improving compared to 3 hours ago. The next recon into Fiona might find a symmetrical system again and probably also a stronger one. Even during peak shear (around the time of the last recon) Fiona was still intensifying.



It's even clearer on VIS where you can see how weirdly shaped Fiona's CDO was 3 hours ago and how there's a much thicker donut-like shape now.

3 hours ago
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20 minutes ago
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1426 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:11 am

The eye is relatively cloudy and small now, despite the CDO expanding and looking less squished.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1427 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:02 pm

Fiona’s eye appears to have contracted noticeably over the past few hours. Next recon mission is this evening, right?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1428 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 21, 2022 12:34 pm

Beef Stew wrote:Fiona’s eye appears to have contracted noticeably over the past few hours. Next recon mission is this evening, right?

Looks more like the NW shear on it is pushing convection to the SE over the eye. If you watch the low level cloud motions in the eye on visible, it looks like we’re only seeing the SE portion
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1429 Postby ChrisH-UK » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:01 pm

Fiona gets a X-Ray, GOES-16 Red Band + Optical Depth.
For those intrested more on Optical Depth product here > http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/OCLOFac ... lDepth.pdf

Source - https://col.st/HK5sZ

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1430 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:07 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1431 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:18 pm

Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1432 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:03 pm

In just a few frames the eye has cleared out again and become nearly perfectly circular on IR. Looking great now.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1433 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:10 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1434 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:14 pm

Why does Fiona always get prettier when we're running out of daylight? After a morning and afternoon characterized by a battle with shear, a small eye has cleared out again with an intensifying CDO. ADT will probably shoot up again in the coming hours, I wouldn't rule out another raw T#7.0. Luckily it will be right on time for recon.

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Last edited by kevin on Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1435 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:15 pm


I don’t see it on Tropical Tidbits. Is it scheduled to take off at 23:07z?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1436 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:22 pm

Picture time

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1437 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:24 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1438 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:26 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1439 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:27 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1440 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:28 pm

Kinda reminds me of Sam right now. She's a beauty.
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