ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1461 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 8:11 pm

Using all the data, I would estimate the intensity at 110 kt now. There was only a single pass, so I wouldn't drop it too much.

As Fiona goes north, the mismatch between wind and pressure will become greater most likely - 940 mb would be about 85 kt.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1462 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:06 pm

EWRC really becoming evident. Looks like shear has finally let up a bit, so hopefully this one will be cleaner and give Fiona a chance to intensify a bit more afterwards.

NHC kept it at 115 kt for the 11pm advisory, but that's probably too high.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1463 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:08 pm

Next aircraft I don't believe is until tomorrow morning, leaving at 0830Z and arriving for the 12Z fix.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1464 Postby Hurricane2022 » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:33 pm

It looks like Fiona is going through her EWRC quickly. I believe that after completing this phase, it will intensify again.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1465 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:35 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1466 Postby sikkar » Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:55 pm

Pressure down to 988.1 at the buoy with 46.6kts gusting to 62.2kts. Center is almost 70 miles away to the south east.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1467 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:53 am

Of course the AF plane’s communications cut out as soon as it penetrated the eyewall.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1468 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:28 am

From the mets I follow this could be a generational storm and one of the strongest storms to ever strike this part of Canada. Fiona was already going to get retired due to the damage in Puerto Rico but it's not done yet. It's definitely a rarer type of extratropical transition. Has shades of Sandy for sure though Sandy was definitely very unique in of itself.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1469 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:44 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1470 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:46 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1471 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:51 am

For a 130 mph system, a 934 mbar core pressure seems rather impressive. If you look at many EPAC systems that peaked at 130 mph, their pressures are usually in the 950s or high 940s, and the most recent Atlantic storm I can think of that had such a low pressure for a 130 mph system was Harvey (937).
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1472 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:55 am

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1572760054708994048




This is likely going to be an absolute monster.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1473 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:56 am

Seems like Fiona has always battled shear from one direction or another for most of its life post-DR. If I recall correctly, this was not entirely expected, and that most models showed it having a more favorable atmospheric environment for a while which should have allowed a more sustained period of symmetrical CDO and round, clear eye with stadium effect (and 120-135kt peak intensity). In 2022 fashion, underachieving for the wx nerds a bit although by no means does this diminish the impact it's already had in the northern Caribbean and will continue to have in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1474 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:21 am

SconnieCane wrote:Seems like Fiona has always battled shear from one direction or another for most of its life post-DR. If I recall correctly, this was not entirely expected, and that most models showed it having a more favorable atmospheric environment for a while which should have allowed a more sustained period of symmetrical CDO and round, clear eye with stadium effect (and 120-135kt peak intensity). In 2022 fashion, underachieving for the wx nerds a bit although by no means does this diminish the impact it's already had in the northern Caribbean and will continue to have in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.

Global models consistently forecasted about 15-20kt of shear in the SW Atlantic, which is exactly what we saw. NHC mentioned this moderate shear in almost every advisory. Here's on example from #18:
The hurricane will be moving through a fairly moist air mass and
over SSTs warmer than 29 deg C for the next few days. It should be
noted that the SHIPS output shows 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear
over Fiona for the next several days. However that same guidance
model shows steady strengthening with the system becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Based on the bulk of the numerical
guidance, the official intensity forecast is increased slightly from
the previous NHC prediction, and is near or a little below the
model consensus.

GFS sounding several days out forecasting the shear well:
Image

Peak intensity has also been in line or even higher than the global models overall. Hurricane models did well with intensity but were around 5kt high with peak winds.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1475 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 am

I think this still might be a Cat 4. Recon found FL winds of up to ~125 kt in the SE eyewall, which translates to 110-115 kt at the surface using the standard 0.9 conversion. If Fiona isn’t a Cat 4 right now, then based on its improving satellite presentation and slight pressure decrease between center fixes, it might try to become one again today.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1476 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:00 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1477 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:31 am

Lets also not forget when this hits Atlantic Canada this will be moving at about 25kts. Add that into the wind speed and you have a storm like no other they have ever seen
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1478 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1479 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:51 am



Wow! Saildrone #2 into Fiona! I wonder when we're going to get good videos from these.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1480 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:57 am

SconnieCane wrote:Seems like Fiona has always battled shear from one direction or another for most of its life post-DR. If I recall correctly, this was not entirely expected, and that most models showed it having a more favorable atmospheric environment for a while which should have allowed a more sustained period of symmetrical CDO and round, clear eye with stadium effect (and 120-135kt peak intensity). In 2022 fashion, underachieving for the wx nerds a bit although by no means does this diminish the impact it's already had in the northern Caribbean and will continue to have in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.


Yeah it "underachieved" when it was originally forecasted to just stay as a weak tropical storm its whole life...
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