ATL: FIONA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

ATL: FIONA - Models

#1 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:16 am

Didn't see a Model Thread for 96L Yet.

Post away.
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3797
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:18 am

SFLcane wrote:FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1436
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:20 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:FYI, Eps also just about dropped it.

Now that is hilarious. Still some members though.

https://i.imgur.com/gxmmZme.gif


The white background frame is yesterdays 6z, but I'd imagine today's will look similar though.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 8:20 am

00Z CMC
Image

00Z ECMF
Image

06Z GFS
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Spacecoast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:03 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:31 am

0z ECMF: Stronger members north, weaker west. Operational looks to strengthen E of Bahamas...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 130331
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:19 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4908
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:22 am

12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9215
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:45 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z ICON is a little further south than recent runs with it just south of PR at 114 hours and at 1003 mb (a bit weaker than recent runs). Also, whereas the 6Z EPS is still pretty active with this, it isn't as active as the 3 prior runs.


Image
12z ICON
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17...

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2432
Age: 32
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 10:54 am

12Z ICON looks like it’s going to get trapped by the building ridge at the end of the run.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:04 am

Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8777
Age: 44
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:07 am

chris_fit wrote:Pretty much nadda on the 12Z GFS @ 120 hours


This is wave is a big ole nada. 12z guidance will probably drop everything.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1436
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:10 am

The 12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian, so far, are plowing it through the Greater Antilles (including Cuba). Probably not good for Flooding on some these islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:13 am

12Z CMC
Crashes into The Shredder

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2432
Age: 32
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby skyline385 » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:17 am

It looks like the GFS was again the first to forecast the track into which all the models eventually caved in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 18481
Age: 59
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:18 am

This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 130331
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:20 am

12z UKMET ceased tracking 96L after one plot.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3797
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#17 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:22 am

tolakram wrote:This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2884
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:26 am

CMC Is biting once it gets in the Extreme E Gulf - Riding FLs West Coast

Image
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1436
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:28 am

Canadian / CMC GEM gets it into the Gulf after Cuba... Which it did on 0z, but in the earlier run it never went into Cuba.

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 18481
Age: 59
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#20 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:29 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:This is why I prefer vorticity plots for developing systems. Follow the vorticity signal to see what a model is thinking. GFS takes it south or partially over Hispaniola and then south of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/JnGQ0gn.gif

But look at the EPAC, it just wants to develop anything with a ball in it.


Not sure I follow. I'm talking about this wave only, the EPAC and gyre problem the GFS has isn't something new, nor is the issue with developing instant hurricanes from the tail end of fronts. GFS under 192 hours, really under 5 days, isn't the worst model.
2 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest