ATL: FIONA - Models

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#481 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:56 am

0Z UKMET mostly missing PR but landfalls into DR and then recurves out

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Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#482 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:56 am

Fort those wondering about last night's UKMET's run, its 06z through 60 hrs was a little further east.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#483 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:57 am

IMHO, all of the models are way too strong over the next 24 hours. Whether-or-not this has a meaningful impact on track between now and then remains to be seen.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#484 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:32 am

skyline385 wrote:0Z UKMET mostly missing PR but landfalls into DR and then recurves out

https://i.imgur.com/0bD2GJv.png
https://i.imgur.com/g65BsoQ.png


Its 06z run showed it making landfall in SW PR, its previous 0z was maybe 5 miles offshore.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#485 Postby Stormlover1970 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:34 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:IMHO, all of the models are way too strong over the next 24 hours. Whether-or-not this has a meaningful impact on track between now and then remains to be seen.
The stronger she gets the quicker she turns
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#486 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:37 am

12z GFS is still persistent in Fiona becoming a hurricane just prior to making landfall over PR but definitely not as aggressive as its previous 06z run after the correction placed on it at 12z of its much weaker state.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#487 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:38 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:IMHO, all of the models are way too strong over the next 24 hours. Whether-or-not this has a meaningful impact on track between now and then remains to be seen.



I disagree, it looks much better than yesterday, its in a much better environment (more moist, less shear) if it can stack then IMO RI seems pretty likely. Not to mention the NHC seems to disagree with your statement.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#488 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:50 am

IsabelaWeather wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:IMHO, all of the models are way too strong over the next 24 hours. Whether-or-not this has a meaningful impact on track between now and then remains to be seen.



I disagree, it looks much better than yesterday, its in a much better environment (more moist, less shear) if it can stack then IMO RI seems pretty likely. Not to mention the NHC seems to disagree with your statement.


Fiona's put in some work over the last few hours for sure, but the GFS has this basically a hurricane by sunset. I don't think we're there yet.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#489 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:56 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:IMHO, all of the models are way too strong over the next 24 hours. Whether-or-not this has a meaningful impact on track between now and then remains to be seen.



I disagree, it looks much better than yesterday, its in a much better environment (more moist, less shear) if it can stack then IMO RI seems pretty likely. Not to mention the NHC seems to disagree with your statement.


Fiona's put in some work over the last few hours for sure, but the GFS has this basically a hurricane by sunset. I don't think we're there yet.


I agree, depends if it can get its act together, Sometimes they do, sometimes for whatever reason, they never do. Id lean towards west of the GFS though
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#490 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:57 am

caneman wrote:Can someone post the latest UKMET model please. Thanks


12Z UKMET goes NW over far E PR (E of SJ) and then moves WNW for short time followed by NW...so quite a shift E from prior run at PR!

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.09.2022

TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 63.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2022 0 16.3N 63.6W 1005 35
0000UTC 18.09.2022 12 17.2N 64.9W 1003 33
1200UTC 18.09.2022 24 18.4N 65.8W 1001 44
0000UTC 19.09.2022 36 19.0N 67.7W 999 45
1200UTC 19.09.2022 48 20.0N 68.6W 999 46
0000UTC 20.09.2022 60 21.4N 69.9W 996 53
1200UTC 20.09.2022 72 22.4N 70.5W 995 51
0000UTC 21.09.2022 84 23.9N 70.5W 987 57
1200UTC 21.09.2022 96 25.8N 70.0W 978 54
0000UTC 22.09.2022 108 27.8N 69.3W 969 63
1200UTC 22.09.2022 120 30.6N 68.6W 961 73
0000UTC 23.09.2022 132 33.9N 66.5W 953 84
1200UTC 23.09.2022 144 38.7N 61.4W 942 99
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#491 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:51 pm

12Z UKMET
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#492 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 12:53 pm

12Z GFS

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#493 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:10 pm

A couple of close in high res models of Fiona as it approaches Puerto Rico, NAM has 100 mph and GFS has 90 mph winds.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#494 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:29 pm

Hurricane or no Hurricane the bigger story for PR will be the excessive amounts of rain that the models show, especially if it tracks over the SW tip of the island like the latest 12z Euro shows, not so much if it tracks more to the right like the GFS shows.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#495 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:43 pm

12z Euro (fast)
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#496 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:26 pm

Full Euro through 120. What are the odds of another storm sneaking through the passage?

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#497 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 2:28 pm

Euro precip estimates
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#498 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:08 pm

12z Euro ensembles... ~ 6-7 weaker members (12-14%) drift westward after going over central DR...
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#499 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:09 pm

Euro still has some ensembles going pretty far west, Gfs has none.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#500 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:20 pm

12Z HMON blows this up into a 925mb/120kt monster in 5 days, with the eastern half scraping Bermuda. A lot of these show significant deepening, but even those keep it around 940-950, not sub-930
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