ATL: FIONA - Models

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#501 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:22 pm

Genuinely curious, but I keep hearing about Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Bermuda, but how safe are the Turks and Cacos?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#502 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:41 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Euro still has some ensembles going pretty far west, Gfs has none.

Those far western solutions must be if Fiona just stays disorganized or weakens to the point it gets caught up in the westerlies. Doesn’t seem like that’s a possibility at the moment but time will tell.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#503 Postby bjackrian » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:09 pm

I'm curious how people think the lack of some upstream radiosonde data is affecting the models for Fiona. I believe that all 12 US sites that launch balloons using helium are still not launching (and haven't been since late July) due to a helium shortage. While it's only about 10% of the sites, it still seems like a loss of data that may affect modelling?

From local media here in Denver: https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... ons-helium
Out of 122 NWS offices across the nation, 92 of those offices launch weather balloons. NWS Boulder is one of 12 offices that rely on helium to send their balloons floating high into the atmosphere.

"The main plant has gone offline, and that's down in Texas," Stark said. "So that is why it's impacting not only us but other locations."

The other locations that rely on helium include Albany and Upton in New York, Caribou, Maine; Wallops Island, Virginia; Greensboro, North Carolina; Charleston, South Carolina; Key West and Tallahassee in Florida, Salt Lake City, Utah; Las Vegas, Nevada; and Tucson, Arizona.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#504 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Sep 17, 2022 4:17 pm

Spacecoast wrote:12z Euro ensembles... ~ 6-7 weaker members (12-14%) drift westward after going over central DR...
Image


Ope, this might be a problem for Canada then eh?
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#505 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 17, 2022 5:56 pm

A bit of a W shift in the 18Z GFS. Not enough to allow it to miss PR, but this run passes a little more W of Bermuda (but still impacting them)
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#506 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:17 pm

18Z models

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#507 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:05 pm

Hammy wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Here's the dry air on HWRF killing off its western bands, and almost getting into the core through the west. The location matches perfectly on the water vapour I posted as well.

https://i.imgur.com/X7a12F9.png

I'm impressed that the model predicted it almost perfectly.


Not doing well beyond 6h though, 00z run had it 982mb by now and much tighter.

Pressure? Poor. C-

Dry Air intrusion? Perfect. A+

(Btw, I've posted it in the models section since we were basically talking about that HWRF model.)
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#508 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 8:42 pm

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#509 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:02 pm

The 18Z EPS 144 has fewer left outliers (almost none that would threaten the CONUS) vs the 12Z EPS 150.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#510 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:53 pm

Well, looks like the 18Z HAFS-0.3 has gone completely off the rails. Has Fiona reaching Puerto Rico as an 80-knot hurricane at hour 24, with it peaking (so far, it's not completely loaded) at 918mb/139kt at hour 102

The other 18Z models look mostly like they have earlier today, forecasting a PR landfall at around 60kt/990mb and a peak around 950mb, so I'm not sure what HAFS is seeing here
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#511 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 17, 2022 9:55 pm

18Z HWRF for what it's worth.

Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#512 Postby skyline385 » Sat Sep 17, 2022 10:23 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:Well, looks like the 18Z HAFS-0.3 has gone completely off the rails. Has Fiona reaching Puerto Rico as an 80-knot hurricane at hour 24, with it peaking (so far, it's not completely loaded) at 918mb/139kt at hour 102

The other 18Z models look mostly like they have earlier today, forecasting a PR landfall at around 60kt/990mb and a peak around 950mb, so I'm not sure what HAFS is seeing here


You were looking at the HAFS-S (S is for secondary) which is basically the HWRF on steroids. HAFS-A has done relatively better so far this season but in the end both are experimental models and have been all over the place.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#513 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:40 am

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#514 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:42 am

Euro now stays just south of PR
Image

GFS similar
Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#515 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 6:46 am

HWRF 6Z still running. Now the short term intensity looks realistic.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#516 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:33 am

6Z Euro still sees this staying south of PR
Image

Center crossing or not there will be a lot of rain, probably more than if it crossed over.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#517 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:45 am

All three hurricane models show Fiona starting an EWRC between Wednesday afternoon and very early Thursday morning. The HAFS starts the EWRC earlier, probably due to it showing a smaller initial core and higher intensity (135-140 kt and 923mb) by Wednesday afternoon compared to the HWRF and HMON (940s to upper 930s). The HMON has the largest secondary eyewall of the three models, around the size of Larry’s outer eyewalls during its endless EWRC phase.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#518 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 11:24 am

12Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#519 Postby ThetaE » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:02 pm

I have to say I'm pretty suspicious about how little models weaken Fiona as it skirts PR and DR. Maybe a neutral intensity or slight drop in pressure is possible if environmental conditions improve at the same time, but my intuition says that's not likely.

In my observation, close calls and brief (but mountain-y) island landfalls often seem innocuous at first, only for structural damage to appear 12-24 hours later. We've arguably already seen this with Fiona-- it seemed to be intensifying and fighting off shear during and immediately after crossing Guadeloupe, but the next morning the pressure had risen, the wind field was broad, and there were multiple centers.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#520 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:05 pm

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