ATL: FIONA - Models

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#521 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:29 pm

12Z HWRF running
Image

Both it and Euro show a hard left turn before continuing NW movement.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#522 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 4:00 pm

12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#523 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 7:59 pm

Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#524 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:04 pm

18Z HWRF. For this to verify it has to start moving north right now.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#525 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:05 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time


Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#526 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:35 pm

tolakram wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time


Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.

Some models have shown this making landfall near or at 950mb in Newfoundland. Major hurricane landfall isn't out of the question.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#527 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Sun Sep 18, 2022 8:44 pm

tolakram wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:Looks Newfoundland bound down the line.

Wonder how much of a punch it'll pack by that time


Probably decent wind, the usual 60 gusts to whatever, and a lot of rain. Below hurricane strength but for a place not used to regular large storms could maybe do some significant damage.


Atlantic Canada is quite used to large storms, they get hammered with weather bombs in the 950-960 NB range just about annually, just not typically this time of year when leaves are still on all the trees.

If it's only going to bring 60 MPH winds it'll be nothing.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#528 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 18, 2022 9:03 pm

18z HMON does show a landfall over DR, but Fiona isn’t impacted that much and recovers within 12 hours or so before getting all the way down into the 930s by Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#529 Postby Landy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:58 am

Sure, HWRF.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#530 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:04 am

Looks like we can throw most models in the bin with the current path over land. No idea how much of an impact this will have on Fiona's future track. That being said, all the models are trending stronger with all of the ones below showing at least a MH peak.

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#531 Postby Jelmergraaff » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:19 am

Anyone knows if the (experimental) HAFS-model on Tropical Tidbits has a bias in terms of over-estimating intensitifaction. Because 923 hPa and 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic to me...

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#532 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 4:01 am

Jelmergraaff wrote:Anyone knows if the (experimental) HAFS-model on Tropical Tidbits has a bias in terms of over-estimating intensitifaction. Because 923 hPa and 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic to me...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hafs/2022091900/hafs_mslp_wind_07L_22.png


HAFS is supposed to be the next gen hurricane model so on the one hand I'm optimistic about its capabilities, but it's also new/experimental with little test data to compare it to so I can't say for sure. It does seem to be quite aggressive similar to the other hurricane models HWRF/HMON. For example for Earl it consistently showed a cat 4 hurricane and once even showed a 920mb/145kt cat 5. I guess both of those options were technically possible and Earl just underperformed, but a cat 5 does sound like an overestimation even if Earl did have a better structure. With Fiona HAPS showed an 80 kt PR/DR landfall, while pretty much all the other global models showed a max. 60 kt landfall. I still remember a post earlier in this thread mentioning how crazy HAPS' solution was and at the time I sort of agreed. Now it turns out Fiona did actually make landfall at 80 kt so that's a big win for HAPS compared to the other models. In general, like HWRF/HMON I think HAPS is quite aggressive with intensity. If conditions are very conductive (like apparently was the case with Fiona) it can be quite accurate, but otherwise it tends to overestimate things. I think this HAPS solution is the absolute ceiling for Fiona if all conditions are perfect, but not the average forecast. That's the reason why HWRF/HMON are often the best performing models with rapidly intensifying hurricanes, but tend to overestimate storms/seasons with a less favorable setup. So not really a clear-cut answer, I guess what I'm trying to say is 'probably yes, but also not always' :lol:. I do agree with you that 142 kt in 63 hours seems unrealistic.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#533 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 19, 2022 7:26 pm

Models still showing Bermuda taking the strong side of a fast moving major.
West of the center the Canadian Maritimes may not even get hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#534 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 10:39 pm

Nimbus wrote:Models still showing Bermuda taking the strong side of a fast moving major.
West of the center the Canadian Maritimes may not even get hurricane force winds.


It depends on what happens with the trough interaction. Back in 2014 Hurricane Arthur caused a tremendous amount of widespread wind damage up here due to a westside sting jet that got drawn into the transitioning system. The westside weak windfield rule of thumb does not always hold true with phasing systems.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#535 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:12 pm

Image

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#536 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:48 pm

The track seems to be slowing down and shifting west as Fiona is taking her time getting out of the Turks and Caicos region. Good for Bermuda, bad for Canada
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#537 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 9:50 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092018/gfs_mslp_uv850_secan_16.png

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.

I just watched Mark Sudduth’s most recent video. He’s very concerned about Fiona’s impacts as a gigantic mid-latitude cyclone, and is heading to Atlantic Canada to record its landfall
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#538 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:44 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022092018/gfs_mslp_uv850_secan_16.png

Interested that nobody is discussing the fact that the GFS & Euro seem to want to wipe Nova Scotia off the map for good.

The capture is very similar to Igor/Sandy, though it's looking to be a significantly stronger storm than either.


Wow, I'm right at the southwest corner of New Brunswick less than five miles from the Maine border and even my area is in the purple, looks very nasty. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#539 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:21 pm

0z GFS actually strengthens this on approach to Canada, 937mb!
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Models

#540 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 11:36 pm

I haven't seen a pressure gradient so steep anywhere in the NE since Sandy or the Winter Storm that flooded Boston Harbor in January 2018. :eek:
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