ATL: FIONA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:35 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.9N 61.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES




Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains,
storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and
the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the
minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be
about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low. The maximum
winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70
kt.

Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down. The initial
motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt. A slower northward
motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of
the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across
Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous
one.

Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today,
but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next
day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada. NHC will
continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end
along the Atlantic Canada coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western
Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador
into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of
which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 47.9N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:11 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED IN ATLANTIC
CANADA...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.4N 60.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued all of the tropical
storm and hurricane warnings for Atlantic Canada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal tropical storm or hurricane watches or
warnings. See warnings and forecasts issued by Environment Canada
at https://weather.gc.ca/ for more information.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 48.4 North, longitude 60.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13
km/h). A faster north-northeast or north motion is expected
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will
move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea late tonight and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gale-force and storm-force winds are expected to continue
across portions of Atlantic Canada through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm)
of rainfall across portions of Atlantic Canada, with storm total
maxima as high as 10 inches (250 mm) across Nova Scotia, New
Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland. Flooding
is expected, some of which could be significant.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in portions of Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Fiona. For more information, see forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada at https://weather.gc.ca/. Additional
information can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Fiona remains a large and potent extratropical low pressure system.
Even though the maximum winds have decreased just below
hurricane-force, ASCAT data and surface observations show that
Fiona has a very large wind field. The initial wind speed is
estimated to be 60 kt.

Fiona has slowed down significantly, and the system is now moving
northeastward at 7 kt. A faster north to north-northeast motion is
expected, taking the center of the system across Labrador tonight
and early Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Since the tropical warnings have been discontinued for Atlantic
Canada, this is the last NHC advisory on Fiona. For information on
this system, see forecasts issued by Environment Canada at
https://weather.gc.ca/. Additional information can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada through early Sunday, and significant impacts from high
winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact
portions of Atlantic Canada into Sunday. This rainfall is expected
to produce flooding, some of which could be significant.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 48.4N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 25/0600Z 50.6N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/1800Z 54.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0600Z 58.4N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1800Z 60.7N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 63.1N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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