ATL: FIONA - Advisories

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ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#1 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:55 am

Expires:No;;830793
WTNT32 KNHC 141459
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 49.6W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm
Watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands later
today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 49.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast
to move through the Leeward Islands on Friday or Friday night, and
be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




WTNT42 KNHC 141500
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated
with the area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has become
better defined. The associated convection has persisted overnight
and this morning, and although it is confined to the eastern
portion of the circulation it has enough organization to classify
the system as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set
at 30 kt, which is a little above the latest TAFB Dvorak
classification of T1.5, but in line with overnight scatterometer
data.

Moderate westerly shear and a dry mid-level atmosphere are expected
to prevent significant intensification, but some modest
strengthening is possible over the next day or two, and the NHC
forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight
or Thursday. After the system moves into the eastern Caribbean, the
westerly shear is forecast to increase somewhat and the global
models suggest that the system could struggle to maintain its
closed circulation after that time. The NHC intensity forecast is
a little above the IVCN intensity forecast, and maintains the
system as a tropical cyclone through the forecast period. Weakening
is indicated by day 5 when the system is forecast to interact with
Hispaniola.

The depression is moving westward or 280/12 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to move slightly north of due westward along the south
side of a low to mid-level ridge that is anchored over the central
and western Atlantic. Although the track guidance is tightly
clustered, there are some differences in forward speed with the
ECMWF much faster than the GFS. The NHC forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is near the TVCA and GFEX
consensus aids to account for the differences in the forward speed.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands on
Friday or Friday night, bringing heavy rainfall and possible wind
impacts. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of the depression as tropical storm watches could be
required for some islands later today.

2. The system could move near or over portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next
week, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and some wind impacts to
these areas, and interests there should monitor the progress of the
depression.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.6N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.7N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 16.9N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 17.1N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 19.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 50.5W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm
watches will likely be required for portions of the Leeward Islands
this evening or overnight.




Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Deep convection has continued to burst near and to the east of the
center of the depression this afternoon, but overall there has been
no significant change in the system's organization. An ASCAT-C
scatterometer overpass that arrived just after the release of the
previous advisory revealed some believable 30-kt vectors within the
eastern portion of the primary convective mass. Although the system
continues to be affected by moderate westerly shear, it is likely
not far from tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is held
at 30 kt, and is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Arc clouds have been propagating away from the convection today,
indicating that the system is located within a relatively dry mid-
level environment. Since both the shear and dry air are likely to
persist during the next few days, only modest strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast. One change in the latest global
model guidance is that most now maintain the system as a tropical
cyclone into the eastern Caribbean, much like was shown in the
previous NHC advisory. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
unchanged from before, and calls for the depression to become a
tropical storm tonight or Thursday. Little change in intensity is
shown after that time due to environmental uncertainties and the
potential interaction with land, and the official forecast lies
near the statistical models (SHIPS and LGEM).

The longer-term motion of the depression is generally west at about
11 kt. There is no change to the early portion of the track
forecast reasoning. The depression is expected to be steered
slightly north of due west along the southern side of a low- to
mid-level ridge over the central and western Atlantic during the
next few days. There is very little cross-track spread in the
guidance during that time, but there is considerable along-track
differences with the ECWMF much faster than the remainder of the
guidance. The NHC official forecast is again closer to the HFIP
corrected consensus and GFS ensemble mean, but it is slightly slower
than the previous track through day 3. At days 4 and 5, there has
been a change in the guidance since most of the models depict a
stronger and more vertically deep cyclone by the end of period. This
has resulted in a more poleward track toward the end of the forecast
period, and the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. There
is still considerable uncertainty in the longer range portion of the
forecast as there is a bifurcation in the ensemble guidance that is
related to the system's intensity at the longer range. Ensemble
members that keep the system weak generally show a faster and
farther south track, than the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to move through the Leeward Islands
late Friday or Friday night, and near the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week. Tropical
storm watches will likely be required for portions of the Leeward
Islands this evening or overnight, and for the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Thursday.

2. Heavy rains from the depression will begin to affect the
northern Leeward Islands late Friday, spreading into the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. This
rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with
isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.9N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.1N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.3N 62.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.6N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.4N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 52.0W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.




Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

Although the system still appears ragged-looking in satellite
images, a very recent ASCAT-B pass indicated that the tropical
cyclone has strengthened. Maximum winds in the pass were around 45
kt and therefore, the initial intensity has been increased to that
value. It should be noted that Fiona is an asymmetric storm with all
of its thunderstorms and strong winds currently located on the
system's east side. The lopsided structure is due to moderate
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Fiona continues to move westward at 12 kt. The steering pattern
seems relatively straightforward. A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge situated over the central Atlantic should steer the system
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, taking
the cyclone across the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night,
near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near
Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. There will likely be a turn to the
northwest by the end of the period when the system reaches the
western periphery of the ridge. The models all show a similar
theme, but there are notable speed differences with the ECMWF model
faster than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track forecast
is quite similar to the previous one and near a consensus of the GFS
and ECMWF models.

Given the current tilted and asymmetric structure, continued
influences of shear, and some dry air, any strengthening of the
storm will likely be slow to occur during the next day or so.
However, some of the models show Fiona moving into a less hostile
environment in a couple of days, and it could have an opportunity to
become a little stronger this weekend if it avoids the landmasses of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Given the uncertainty of the system's
future environment and potential land interaction, little change in
strength is shown through most of the period. However, it should be
noted that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given those
complexities.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

2. Heavy rains will begin to affect the northern Leeward Islands
late Friday, spreading into the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico over the weekend. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and Tropical Storm
Watches will likely be issued for some of those areas on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.7N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.9N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.2N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 17.6N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.8N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 18.7N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 20/0000Z 20.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...FIONA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 53.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these areas later today.




Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

The satellite presentation of Fiona has not changed much overnight.
The low-level center of the storm is still displaced to the west of
a deep convective mass with very cold infrared cloud tops. Earlier
scatterometer data showed a broad area of tropical-storm-force winds
over the eastern portion of the circulation, with reliable peak
winds in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity is
held at 45 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fiona later today.

Fiona is moving westward at 270/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to
generally maintain a westward heading for the next few days as it is
steered by the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. However,
there are still significant along-track differences among some of
the model solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF almost 250 n mi apart at
72 h. The latest NHC track forecast lies slightly south of the
previous one and is a bit slower through the first 72 h, remaining
closer to the latest GFEX and HCCA aids. This track brings Fiona
across the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, and near Hispaniola early next
week. From there, the deterministic guidance and most GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members agree that Fiona should turn northwestward by days
4-5 as a weakness develops in the steering ridge over the western
Atlantic. The stronger GFS and HWRF runs show a sharper recurvature
than the rest of the guidance, but the NHC forecast shows a more
gradual turn generally in line with the HCCA aid.

The sheared, asymmetric structure of Fiona does not appear conducive
for much strengthening in the near term. In fact, the SHIPS guidance
suggests that moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly shear
will persist for the next several days over Fiona. This, combined
with some drier mid-level air to the west of the storm, could make
it difficult for Fiona's inner-core structure to become better
organized. The intensity forecast is also complicated by the
potential for land interaction as the storm moves near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend and early next week.
Given the less-than-ideal conditions, the official NHC intensity
forecast does not show much strengthening over the next several
days, and it lies slightly below the intensity consensus aids.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required later today for portions of the northern Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, and interests in these
locations should monitor the latest forecast updates.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, where a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and Tropical Storm
Watches will likely be issued for some of those areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.6N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.7N 54.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.8N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.0N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.2N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.7N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.0N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 54.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and
Anguilla.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin



Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Moderate westerly shear continues to displace Fiona's deep
convection about a degree to the east of the low-level center, with
convective cloud tops as cold as about -80 degrees Celsius.
A recent ASCAT pass showed a solid area of 40- to 45-kt winds, and
with the scatterometer's known undersampling characteristics, it's
not out of the question that Fiona's intensity could be a little
higher. For now, the initial intensity will be held at 45 kt,
pending additional data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon.

Moderate shear, generally out of the west, is expected to continue
for much of the forecast period. That in itself should suppress
significant strengthening, but it may not be enough to prevent any
strengthening at all. Fiona's current intensity is a testament to
its resilience in the face of the shear it has experienced over the
past 24 hours. There has been a general uptick in the intensity
guidance after 48 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast has
been nudged upward during that time. It is important to note,
however, that the official forecast still lies below the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus aids from day 3 onward, and additional
adjustments to the intensity forecast could be required in
subsequent advisories if these trends continue.

Strong low- to mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic is
steering Fiona due west, or 270 degrees at 12 kt, and this general
motion, with some gradual decrease in forward speed, is likely to
continue for the next couple of days. There is notable model
divergence after 36 hours, with the stronger GFS, HWRF, and HMON
solutions turning a slower Fiona northwestward over the northern
Leeward and Virgin Islands. On the other hand, the ECWMF, UKMET,
and all of the consensus aids maintain a faster westward to
west-northwestward motion across the far northeastern Caribbean Sea
through day 3. Given the expectation that moderate shear is likely
to continue, the NHC track forecast favors the less-intense
scenarios and shows a solution moving just south of the Virgin
Islands and then near Puerto Rico in a few days. After day
3, a weakness near the western extent of the ridge should allow
Fiona to gain some latitude and possibly turn toward the northwest,
moving across the Greater Antilles into the far southwestern
Atlantic. On the whole, the NHC track forecast remains steady from
previous predictions, largely following a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today
for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands, and interests in these locations should monitor the latest
forecast updates.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands within the warning area by Friday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward
Islands within the watch area by Friday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola this weekend and early next week, and watches will
likely be issued for some of those areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.6N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.6N 56.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.9N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 17.8N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 19.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:14 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 55.4W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Deep convection has been sheared more than a degree to the east of
the center for much of the day, and as a result, the low-level
center and circulation have become slightly less defined and
elongated, respectively. That said, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 65 kt
and SFMR winds as high as 46 kt. Assuming some undersampling of
the surface winds, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. This is
in agreement with ASCAT-C data from earlier today, which showed an
area of 45-50 kt winds to the northeast of the center.

Fiona appears to have lost a little bit of latitude since earlier
this morning, but the motion remains westward, or 270 degrees at 12
kt. Track models are in good agreement during the next 2 to 3
days, showing a low- to mid-level ridge steering Fiona westward
across the Leeward Islands and over the far northeastern Caribbean
Sea through Sunday. The HWRF is the only outlier during this
period and appears to have a track too far to the north due to an
unrealistically high intensity. After day 3, there is more
divergence among the track models, with the stronger solutions
(i.e., the GFS) indicating a sharper northwestward turn toward a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. The weaker solutions (i.e., the
ECMWF and HMON) keep Fiona on a westward or west-northwestward
track, moving near or over Hispaniola. As a result, the 4- and
5-day forecasts are of lower-than-normal confidence, and ensembles
from the main global models suggest that the cyclone could end up
anywhere from eastern Cuba to well to the northeast of the
Bahamas by the end of the forecast period. For now, the official
track forecast is nudged southward and westward from the previous
forecast, accounting for the adjusted initial position and the
overall trend in the track guidance.

Moderate, and even possibly strong, westerly shear is likely to
continue for much of the 5-day forecast period. Given these
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast flatlines Fiona's intensity
at 50 kt for the next 60 hours, with the caveat that fluctuations
are possible related to the convective structure of the cyclone at
any time. Fiona is forecast to slow down by the 3-5 day time
frame, and the slower motion could allow for the circulation to
become more vertically stacked, even in the face of continued
shear. As a result, some gradual strengthening is indicated at the
latter part of the forecast period. Given uncertainties in how
much Fiona might interact with the islands of the Greater Antilles,
the NHC intensity forecast lies about 5-10 kt below the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by Friday evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area across the Virgin
Islands beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late
Saturday and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands
Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban
flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Considerable flood impacts are possible across eastern portions of
Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.3N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.3N 57.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.5N 59.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.1N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.3N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 21.4N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2022 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

...FIONA MOVING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 56.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 15 2022

Although Fiona remains a strongly sheared tropical storm, deep
convection has been inching closer to the center of circulation
during the past several hours. Cloud tops remain quite cold on the
system's east side. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on
the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fiona overnight.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona has been slowly
losing latitude over the past 24 hours or so, and the initial motion
is estimated to be 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge
to the north of Fiona should steer the system generally westward for
the next few days, taking the storm across the northern Leeward
Islands Friday night and near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Saturday through early Sunday. A turn to the west-northwest and
then the northwest near Hispaniola seems likely late this weekend
and into early next week as the system nears a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the left this cycle, based on the initial position and trending
toward the latest model guidance.

Fiona has been quite resilient even though it continues to be
affected by westerly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air.
The models suggest that the upper-level wind pattern could become a
little more conducive for strengthening during the next couple of
days, which might allow the storm to become more symmetric and
strengthen slightly. However, after that time, the intensity of
Fiona will become highly dependent on how much the storm interacts
with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Since there is uncertainty on the
details of the exact track, the NHC intensity forecast during the
days 2-5 time frame is uncertain. This prediction lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope at most forecast times.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by Friday evening. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area across the Virgin
Islands beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late
Saturday and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands Friday
afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern
Hispaniola Sunday. This rainfall may produce considerable flood
impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.2N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.5N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 16.8N 63.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.1N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 19.5N 70.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 21/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:38 am

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 58.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands



Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

Fiona remains a sheared tropical cyclone this morning. The center of
the storm is fully exposed to the west of a large area of deep
convection over much of the eastern portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Fiona
found peak 925 mb flight-level winds of 60 kt, which would support a
surface wind of about 45 kt using a standard reduction factor.
Meanwhile, the SFMR data only supported surface winds of 35-40 kt.
Earlier scatterometer data showed an area of winds slightly above 40
kt in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. Based on these data,
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory.

The latest aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is still moving south
of due west, and its initial motion is estimated to be 260/13 kt.
The models agree that Fiona should move generally westward over the
next couple of days, to the south of the subtropical ridge across
the central and western Atlantic. This brings the center of the
storm across the Leeward Islands tonight and near the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Saturday through early Sunday. Then, a turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest is forecast as the storm
reaches a weakness in the steering ridge. This would bring the
center of Fiona near or over Hispaniola on Monday and then into the
southwestern Atlantic by days 4-5. The NHC track forecast has once
again been adjusted slightly south of the previous one in the near
term, but generally lies near the center of the guidance envelope on
days 3-5.

Some short-term intensity fluctuations are possible given the
sheared, asymmetric structure of the storm. However, there are some
indications that the environmental conditions could become more
conducive for strengthening as the storm moves into the eastern
Caribbean this weekend. In particular, increasing upper-level
divergence and mid-level moisture along with decreasing vertical
wind shear could allow Fiona to become better organized before it
reaches Hispaniola. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit
more strengthening through 72 h, but still lies slightly below the
guidance consensus. From there, the intensity forecast is of lower
confidence as the extent of land interaction is still uncertain.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Leeward Islands
within the warning area by this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area across the Virgin Islands
beginning on Saturday, and then reaching Puerto Rico late Saturday
and Saturday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks
and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to move near Hispaniola early next week, and
watches could be required for parts of the island later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#9 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:48 pm

ZCZC MIATCUAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
700 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Berg


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 58.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominica

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* British Virgin Islands


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

Convective activity is occurring much closer to the low-level
center of Fiona this morning, suggesting that the deep-layer
westerly shear has decreased a bit. Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Fiona during the past
several hours, and winds as high as 57 kt were reported about 2500
ft above the surface, along with SFMR winds slightly higher than 45
kt. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for now, but Fiona
could easily attain 50 kt soon if the deep convection remains close
to the center.

After losing latitude most of the day yesterday and overnight,
Fiona has started moving north of due west, with an initial motion
of 275/12 kt. A north-of-due-west motion with some slowing of the
forward speed is expected through early Sunday, with Fiona steered
across the Leeward Islands and the far northeastern Caribbean Sea
by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Fiona then
reaches the western extent of the ridge just beyond 48 hours, and
it is expected to move more slowly and turn northwestward across
Hispaniola in 3-4 days, and then be near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and southeastern Bahamas in about 5 days. The spread among
the deterministic track models and the ensembles has decreased since
yesterday, and there's therefore a little bit more confidence in
the NHC track prediction. In addition, there has not been much
shift in the guidance since the previous forecast cycle, and the
updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous prediction,
and in the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCN and
HCCA consensus aids.

Fiona is located near a tight gradient of deep-layer shear, and
it's possible that its south-of-due-west motion since yesterday
brought it into a lighter-shear environment for the convection to
build back closer to the center. Model guidance indicates that the
shear is likely to remain moderate for much of the forecast period,
but at the same time, upper-level divergence and mid-level moisture
are forecast to increase. Coupled with the expected decrease in
forward speed, these factors could allow Fiona's structure to
become more vertically stacked over the northeastern Caribbean Sea,
and gradual strengthening is still anticipated during the next 3
days. Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane
strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's
circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't
have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far
southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast
period. This prediction is slightly below the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Leeward Islands
within the warning area starting this afternoon, and will spread
westward across the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto
Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over Dominica tonight and in the British Virgin
Islands on Saturday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks
and Caicos Monday night or Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and early Monday. Watches could be required for portions of
the Dominican Republic later today.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.0N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.0N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.3N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.8N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 18.5N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...S COAST OF DOM. REP.
96H 20/1200Z 20.5N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 21/1200Z 22.5N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#10 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...FIONA'S CENTER APPROACHING GUADELOUPE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 60.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano westward to Barahona, and for the north coast from Cabo
Engano westward to Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Frances Viejo


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Frances Viejo


Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The bulk of the Fiona's convective activity remains sheared to the
east of the center. However, there are some initial signs of new
convection developing in a small ring around the center, the
low-level cloud field is thickening up a bit, and visible satellite
images show high-level convective cirrus blowing from east to west.
It remains to be seen if this is suggestive of some lessening of the
deep-layer shear over the system and a moistening of the ambient
atmosphere. The initial intensity remains 45 kt given little change
in Fiona's organization since earlier today. The next Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.

Fiona's center jumped a bit to the north today, and it's just
about to move over or just to the north of Guadeloupe. The initial
motion is estimated to be 280 degrees at 13 kt, with the storm
being steered westward by subtropical ridging to the north. The
track forecast philosophy has not changed from earlier today.
Fiona is expected to reach the western edge of the ridge, slow
down, and turn northwestward by day 3, and then north-northwestward
by day 5. The guidance remains in generally good agreement on this
scenario, with the notable exception being the ECMWF model, which
shows a smaller Fiona not turning as sharply or moving as fast as
in the other models by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC
track prediction is adjusted northward during the first 48-60 hours
of the forecast to account for the northward jump of the center,
but it otherwise falls back in line with this morning's forecast on
days 3 through 5 and lies a bit to the west of the consensus aids.

Assuming that recent satellite trends are a harbinger of possible
strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual
intensification while Fiona moves across the far northeastern
Caribbean Sea during the next 48 hours. Although Hispaniola's
terrain could cause some weakening in the 60-72 hour period, the
amount of weakening will probably depend on how much of the wind
field moves over the island or remains over the adjacent waters.
After 72 hours, the global models indicate that the circulation
will become re-established over the far southwestern Atlantic, and
the official forecast continues to show Fiona becoming a
hurricane by the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread across the
Leeward Islands and will continue through Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday
and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over
Dominica tonight and within the watch area in the Dominican
Republic on Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the Leeward Islands by this
evening, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and Haiti
and the Turks and Caicos Monday through Tuesday. This rainfall
may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic
Sunday afternoon. Warnings could be required for portions of
the Dominican Republic tonight or on Saturday.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.8N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.2N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.6N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 18.2N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 18.8N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER DOM. REPUBLIC
72H 19/1800Z 19.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER DOM. REPUBLIC
96H 20/1800Z 21.6N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 21/1800Z 23.6N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#11 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Barahona
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Frances Viejo


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo on the south coast around the
eastern portion of the island to Puerto Plata on the north coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona


Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 16 2022

The center of Fiona moved across the island of Guadeloupe a few
hours ago and it is now over the far northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and reports
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Fiona is a
little stronger. The maximum SFMR winds recorded on the flight so
far were 50 kt and peak flight-level winds measured were 61 kt.
This supports nudging the initial intensity back up to 50 kt. The
minimum pressure of 1002 mb is based on a surface observation from
Guadeloupe. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected
to continue across the Leeward Islands through Saturday afternoon.

Fiona continues to move just north of due west, or 280 degrees, at
13 kt on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next day or so, and
that should take Fiona near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
during that time. The cyclone is expected to slow down and make a
turn to the northwest when it is near or over the Dominican Republic
on Monday as it moves toward a weakness in the ridge. A northward
motion near the southeastern Bahamas is expected during the early
and middle portions of next week. The models generally show a
similar theme, but there are notable differences in where, when, and
how sharply Fiona makes the northwestward and northward turns. The
NHC track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one
through 60 h, but a touch to the east of the previous track from
days 3 to 5. This forecast lies close to the various consensus
aids.

Fiona is still feeling some effects of westerly vertical wind shear
and dry air entrainment, but the models suggest that the storm could
be moving into a region of higher moisture and slightly less shear.
These conditions should support slow strengthening and Fiona could
be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Dominican
Republic. Some weakening is expected due to the interaction with
the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, but re-strengthening is
forecast when it moves north of that island. Fiona is expected to
reorganize over the southwestern Atlantic and become a hurricane in
about 4 days with additional strengthening after that. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one at days
4 and 5, but still below the IVCN and HCCA models.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
Leeward Islands through Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions
will spread westward across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on
Saturday and Puerto Rico late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible over Dominica overnight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are beginning in the Leeward Islands, and
will spread to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico Saturday, reaching the Dominican Republic Sunday, and Haiti
and the Turks and Caicos Monday through Tuesday. This rainfall
may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is expected to strengthen gradually over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, and it could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches the southern or eastern coast of the Dominican Republic
Sunday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
portions of the island and additional watches or warnings could be
required on Saturday.

4. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.4N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 18.4N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/1200Z 19.4N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.3N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 24.7N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#12 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 62.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 63.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques
and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward
to Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo westward
to Barahona


Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

While the center of Fiona is moving westward over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea, the strongest winds and heaviest rains associated
with the storm are still displaced to the east of the center by some
westerly shear. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing over portions
of the Leeward Islands. Earlier data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated the minimum pressure had fallen slightly
to 1000 mb, but the aircraft winds on the final passes did not show
signs of additional strengthening. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates and the earlier aircraft data support an initial
intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona this morning.

The center of Fiona was adjusted a bit south of the previous track
based on aircraft and radar data, and the initial motion is westward
at 275/11 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
through Sunday, which brings the center of Fiona near or just south
of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and toward the eastern portion
of the Dominican Republic. Although some of the track guidance
shifted a bit right this cycle, the adjusted initial position
resulted in little net change to the NHC track forecast with regard
to Fiona's closest approach to Puerto Rico. However, it is noted
that the latest track forecast is somewhat slower than the previous
one based on the latest guidance trends. After passing near or over
the Dominican Republic, a northwestward and northward turn is
expected next week over the southwestern Atlantic. The forecast
track at days 3-5 was nudged a bit eastward based on the consensus
aids.

Fiona is expected to encounter slightly more favorable environmental
conditions over the next 24-48 h. In particular, the westerly shear
that has plagued Fiona for days is forecast to weaken, which could
allow the cyclone's structure to improve and become more vertically
aligned. The latest intensity guidance is stronger than the previous
cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted upward during the
first 36 h of the period. Fiona could be at or near hurricane force
when it passes near Puerto Rico later this weekend, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued to account for this potential. If current
trends continue, further increases to the intensity forecast may be
necessary on future cycles. Some brief weakening is possible due to
interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, but
re-strengthening seems likely once Fiona moves over the southwestern
Atlantic next week. The NHC intensity forecast has been raised on
days 3-5 in line with the latest consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
Leeward Islands through this morning. Tropical storm conditions
will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this morning and
spread westward across Puerto Rico later today and tonight. Fiona
could be near hurricane strength as it moves near Puerto Rico late
tonight and on Sunday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for
portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to
produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving across Hispaniola
early next week, and interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts for the
storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.4N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 18.6N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/1800Z 19.7N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 23.0N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#13 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FIONA A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 63.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo and for the northern coast from
Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, including
Vieques and Culebra.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning. From
a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better
organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope
becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around
most of the storm. However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the
circulation still lacks some vertical coherency. From the best we
can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be
re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection.
The central pressure may have risen a bit during this
re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to
be 50 kt.

With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more
uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from
yesterday. The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to
gradually recurve around the western extent of the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period. The
big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to
the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on
this cycle. The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one
and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a
track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36
hours. The caveat to this forecast is that additional center
re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore
there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track
forecast. Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not
focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for
potential shifts in the track east or west.

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several
days. In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment,
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. There is
some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of
these favorable conditions given its current structure. But either
way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near
or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday.
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous
prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids.
If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that
additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming
later today.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto
Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S.
Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions will
continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will
spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later
today, and to Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions will
reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to
produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
particularly in Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
48H 19/1200Z 19.2N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 20.4N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 23.9N 70.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 27.6N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#14 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:03 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...FIONA'S HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 64.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warnings for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona



Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

After going through a bit of a re-organization this morning,
Fiona's structure appears to be improving again. Visible satellite
images show an elongated band of deep convection wrapping around
the center from north to east to southwest, and WSR-88D Doppler
radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico, suggests that a better-defined
center of circulation has developed. A 1707 UTC AMSR-2 microwave
pass also shows that a mid-level eye feature may be developing.
The last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission from a few hours
ago found that the central pressure had fallen back down to 1002 mb,
but maximum winds still appeared to be around 50 kt. The next
reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this evening.

Fiona's motion today has been discontinuous due to the storm's
center re-formation, but the smoothed longer-term motion is now
west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. This general motion is expected
to continue through tonight, with Fiona expected to turn
northwestward on Sunday as it begins to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Monday night, followed by a
northward and north-northeastward acceleration over the western
Atlantic by Thursday. In general, the new NHC forecast is close to
the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, in the middle of the guidance
envelope. This prediction is a little bit north of this morning's
forecast during the first 24 to 36 hours, mainly accounting for
Fiona's adjusted initial position. After 36 hours, the track
forecast is not too different from earlier.

Since the new track forecast has the center of Fiona reaching
Puerto Rico in about 24 hours, the window for strengthening is less
than it was earlier today. However, the NHC intensity forecast is
near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and suggests that Fiona will
be at or near hurricane intensity before moving across Puerto Rico
on Sunday. If the center does cross Puerto Rico, that could halt
intensification, or cause some slight weakening, but Fiona is
expected to go through a more significant strengthening phase once
it's over the western Atlantic. The forecast shows Fiona just
below major hurricane intensity by day 5, although it should be
mentioned that this prediction is slightly below the consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto
Rico on Sunday, and are possible across the U.S. Virgin Islands
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are now spreading westward
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and will spread
across Puerto Rico this evening and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will reach the Dominican Republic by late Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday,
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. These rainfall amounts are
expected to produce life-threatening flash floods and urban
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain,
especially across portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and past the Dominican Republic on Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.7N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.1N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
36H 19/0600Z 19.0N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 19/1800Z 20.1N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 21.4N 69.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 22.7N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 25.4N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#15 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:05 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Added omitted word in the motion paragraph

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the eastern Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to
Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from San Juan indicate that
Fiona is gradually becoming better organized, with the radar showing
increasing banding near the center and a possible decrease in the
radius of maximum winds. However, this has not yet resulted in any
increase in intensity, with the radar winds and data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggesting that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 kt. The aircraft has reported that
the central pressure has fallen to 997 mb.

Fiona's motion has been a bit erratic over the past few hours.
However, the longer-term motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/7 kt. A
turn toward the northwest is expected in about 12 h, with a general
northwestward motion continuing through about 48 h as Fiona is
steered by the subtropical ridge to the northeast. After that, the
cyclone is expected to move slowly northward through a break in the
ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Florida
Peninsula and the adjacent Atlantic. By the end of the forecast
period, a north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected as Fiona reaches the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and to the consensus models, with the center forecast to move near
the southwestern portion of Puerto Rico and the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic before passing east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

While the vertical wind shear has diminished since yesterday, Fiona
remains in an environment of moderate southwesterly shear, and the
model guidance suggests that this is likely to persist through the
forecast period. This will limit the intensification, although the
storm will pass over warm sea surface temperatures and move into a
more moist environment. The new intensity forecast calls for Fiona
to reach hurricane strength in about 24 h as it passes near Puerto
Rico. After that, development could be interrupted by close
proximity to the Dominican Republic. More earnest strengthening
appears likely when Fiona moves away from land after 48 h, and the
intensity forecast again calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. It
should be noted that the intensity guidance has a large amount of
spread, and there are models both stronger and weaker than the
official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
on Sunday, and are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic
Sunday night and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible across
the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are now
spreading westward across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
will spread across Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions
will reach the Dominican Republic by late Sunday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue to spread west across the
British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, the
Dominican Republic Sunday, and the Turks and Caicos Monday night.
These rainfall amounts are expected to produce life-threatening
flash floods and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, especially across portions of Puerto Rico and
portions of the eastern Dominican Republic.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and past the Dominican Republic on Monday, and interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.6N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 18.1N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 19.1N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 21.6N 70.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 23.0N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 25.5N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 31.0N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#16 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE FIONA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including
the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and
the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas


Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Fiona has continued to show signs of better organization in Doppler
radar data from San Juan this morning, and earlier data from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the storm has indeed
strengthened. The aircraft reported peak flight-level (700 mb) winds
of 57 kt, along with several instances of SFMR winds greater than 50
kt and a peak of 57 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the storm.
Also, a center dropsonde indicated that the minimum pressure had
fallen a few millibars to 994 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory.

After a brief northward jog last night, the center of Fiona appears
to have resumed a more west-northwestward heading (290/7 kt). The
storm is expected to turn northwestward later today, which should
bring the center of Fiona near or over the southwestern portion of
Puerto Rico this afternoon and near the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic early Monday. Then, a mid-level trough over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to induce a weakness in the
steering ridge early next week. This should enable Fiona to turn
slowly northward by midweek while it passes near or to the east of
the Turks and Caicos Islands. An acceleration to the north and
north-northeast is forecast by late in the week as Fiona moves
within the flow ahead of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough.
The models are tightly clustered throughout the forecast period and
no major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which still
lies close to the consensus aids near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Moderate southwesterly to westerly shear appears likely to continue
affecting Fiona during the next several days. However, very warm
sea-surface temperatures and sufficient mid-level moisture are still
expected to allow for some intensification as Fiona approaches
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The NHC forecast calls for
Fiona to become a hurricane later today before it moves near or over
Puerto Rico. Once the cyclone moves away from land and reaches the
southwestern Atlantic, more significant strengthening is forecast in
agreement with the consensus of the intensity guidance. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been raised from 48 h through the end of
the forecast period, but still lies slightly below the IVCN and HCCA
aids. Fiona could reach major hurricane strength by late this week
over the western Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
today, and are expected in portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and are spreading westward
across Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions will reach the
Dominican Republic later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce life-threatening flash
floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and portions of the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for these locations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.1N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.8N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 21.2N 69.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 22.6N 70.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 23.9N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 27.5N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#17 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:12 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 66.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
and Doppler velocities from the San Juan WSR-88D radar indicate
that Fiona is strengthening, and is now a hurricane. The aircraft
and radar data support a current intensity of 70 kt. Satellite
imagery shows an expanding upper-level outflow pattern over the
system.

Fiona should be moving in an environment of moderate vertical
shear, over warm SSTs, and within a fairly moist air mass for the
next few days. The only obvious impediments to strengthening
should be the interaction with the land masses of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola during the next day or so. The official forecast is
above the previous one, but still a little below the model
consensus. It appears likely that Fiona will become the first
major hurricane of this Atlantic season in a few days.

Although the movement has still been a little irregular based on
recent aircraft center fixes, a smoothed initial motion is still
west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt. There has been little change to
the track forecast reasoning. Over the next few days, the
hurricane should move along the western periphery of a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Thereafter, Fiona is likely to turn
north-northeastward and accelerate later in the forecast period as
it comes under the influence of higher-latitude westerlies. The
official forecast is just a little bit to the left of, and
slightly slower than, the previous NHC track during the first 12 to
24 hours and very close to it thereafter. This is very
similar to the latest dynamical model consensus aid, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto Rico
today and in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and will reach the Dominican Republic later today
and tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce life-threatening flash
floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and portions of the
eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and landslides in
areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 17.9N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.9N 68.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.8N 70.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 23.2N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 34.8N 64.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#18 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:14 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...EYE OF FIONA VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 66.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands


Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
335 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...

NWS Doppler radar observations indicate that the center of
Hurricane Fiona has made landfall along the extreme southwestern
coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 320 PM AST...1920 UTC.
Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph
(140 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 320 PM AST...1920 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 67.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO AND HEADING FOR THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...CAUSING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos and for the Southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

The eye of Fiona made landfall over extreme southwestern Puerto
Rico around 1920 UTC, and the center of the hurricane is now moving
into the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic. Earlier observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D radar velocity data indicate that the maximum winds were
near 75 kt. Since there has been little change in the organization
of the system since the aircraft missions earlier today, the
intensity is kept at that value for now. A NOAA Saildrone went
through the eye of Hurricane Fiona earlier today and the data from
that vessel indicated a minimum central pressure of 986 mb.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Fiona is scheduled
for this evening.

The hurricane will be moving through a fairly moist air mass and
over SSTs warmer than 29 deg C for the next few days. It should be
noted that the SHIPS output shows 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear
over Fiona for the next several days. However that same guidance
model shows steady strengthening with the system becoming a major
hurricane in about 48 hours. Based on the bulk of the numerical
guidance, the official intensity forecast is increased slightly from
the previous NHC prediction, and is near or a little below the
model consensus.

Center fixes indicate that Fiona's motion is between
west-northwest and northwest, or about 305/8 kt. There has been
little change to the track model guidance, which is fairly tightly
clustered albeit with some differences in forward speed. The
cyclone should move along the western periphery of a subtropical
high pressure area for the next 3-4 days. Later in the forecast
period, Fiona is expected to accelerate northeastward and
north-northeastward as it encounter the faster high-latitude flow.
The official track forecast has not been changed significantly,
and remains in close agreement with the TVCA dynamical model.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical
storm conditions will reach the Dominican Republic this evening.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico through
tonight and occur over the Dominican Republic later today into
Monday. These rainfall amounts will produce catastrophic
life-threatening flash floods and urban flooding across Puerto Rico
and portions of the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides
and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 21.4N 70.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 22.8N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 24.1N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 25.7N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 30.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 37.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#19 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:16 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA HEADING FOR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 67.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...EYE OF FIONA NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos to a Hurricane Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

Radar imagery and recent fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that Fiona has jogged westward over the Mona
Passage, in between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this
evening. Radar, microwave imagery, and observations from the
aircraft indicate that the eye has become smaller, with the radius
of maximum winds decreasing to 10-15 n mi. There has been some
warming of the clouds tops in the band just outside the CDO, but the
conventional satellite presentation has not changed much since late
this afternoon. The aircraft has measured a peak 700-mb flight-
level wind of 75 kt, and SFMR winds of around 70 kt. A dropwindsonde
in the northwestern eyewall measured a mean wind of 89 kt in the
lowest 150 m of the profile, which supports the 75 kt initial
intensity. The aircraft just reported a minimum pressure of 982 mb
on it latest pass through the center just a short time ago.

As mentioned above, Fiona has been moving more westward this
evening, but the longer-term motion estimate is 300/9 kt. With this
westward jog, the center is likely to make landfall in the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic overnight, and the early portion
of the track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The dynamical
model guidance insists that a northwestward motion should begin
soon, and the models are in good agreement that Fiona will move
around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next
several days. Later in the forecast period, Fiona is forecast to
accelerate northeastward, and north-northeastward ahead of a trough
that is expected to move across the northeastern United States by
the end of the week. The official forecast is near the center of
the guidance envelope, but is slightly slower than the previous
forecast at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

Fiona could strengthen slightly within the next few hours before it
reaches the coast of the Dominican Republic overnight. After that
time, some weakening could occur while the center remains near
eastern Hispaniola. Once Fiona moves over the Atlantic waters
north of the Dominican Republic, the hurricane will be over warm
water and in fairly moist environment. Although there is likely to
be some moderate shear over the hurricane, nearly all of the
intensity models suggest the cyclone will strengthen, and the
official forecast again calls for Fiona to become a major hurricane
in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the
IVCN intensity aid, and is similar to the previous wind speed
forecast.

Based on Fiona's latest forecast track, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of
the Dominican Republic within the warning area through Monday.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across Puerto Rico overnight
tonight and spread over the Dominican Republic through Monday.
These rains will continue to produce life-threatening and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding across Puerto Rico and
portions of the eastern Dominican Republic, along with mudslides and
landslides in areas of higher terrain.

3. Fiona is forecast to continue to strengthen after moving away
from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions
are expected in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern
Bahamas by late Monday or early Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.0N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.0N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.4N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 21.9N 70.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 24.7N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 26.4N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 40.3N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#20 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:17 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...EYE OF FIONA APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
PUNTA CANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 68.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
335 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Hurricane Fiona has
made landfall along the coast of the Dominican Republic near Boca de
Yuma at 330 AM AST...0730 UTC. Maximum sustained winds at landfall
were estimated to be 90 mph (150 km/h). The Punta Cana International
Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a
gust of 79 mph (128 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...0730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 68.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Papin


...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

Fiona strengthened before making landfall as an 80-kt hurricane in
the Dominican Republic to the south-southwest of Punta Cana around
0730 UTC this morning. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
around 0500 UTC indicated a closed eye, with a minimum pressure that
had fallen to 979 mb. Soon thereafter, the eye cleared out in
infrared satellite imagery and the inner core structure improved in
NWS San Juan radar data. The center of Fiona is currently inland
over the eastern Dominican Republic, but radar data indicate that
the outer rainbands of Fiona continue to move northward across
Puerto Rico. The initial intensity is 80 kt for this advisory.

Although the longer-term motion of Fiona is west-northwestward, the
center has been moving more northwestward (310/7 kt) over the past
few hours. This motion should continue as Fiona crosses the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic this morning and then emerges into
the southwestern Atlantic. After moving away from land, the tightly
clustered track guidance shows Fiona turning north-northwestward and
northward through midweek around the western extent of a subtropical
ridge. Then, an acceleration to the north-northeast is forecast late
this week as Fiona moves within the flow ahead of an amplifying
deep-layer trough that will move off the northeastern U.S. coast.
The NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one and
lies near the center of the guidance envelope. It is, however, a bit
slower with the recurvature of Fiona later this week, as reflected
in the latest consensus aids.

As the center of Fiona crosses the Dominican Republic, land
interaction may briefly disrupt the organization of the hurricane
and result in some short-term weakening. However, as Fiona moves
away from land, more significant strengthening is expected while it
moves across SSTs greater than 29C within a fairly moist and
unstable environment over the western Atlantic. The latest intensity
guidance unanimously calls for strengthening during the next few
days, and the latest NHC forecast generally falls between the IVCN
and HCCA aids. This brings Fiona up to major hurricane strength by
Wednesday. As the hurricane accelerates deeper into the
mid-latitudes and begins interacting with a deep-layer trough, it is
expected to begin extratropical transition by day 5, although the
process will likely not be completed until after the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the
Dominican Republic within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions will continue on Puerto Rico through this morning and
over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
through tonight.

2. Heavy rains from outer bands of Fiona will continue across Puerto
Rico into this afternoon. The center of Fiona will persist over
eastern Dominican Republic into this afternoon with heavy bands then
lasting through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to
produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with
mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash
and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican
Republic.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected
in the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions
are expected in the southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.5N 68.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 22.2N 71.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 23.6N 71.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 25.1N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 27.0N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 42.5N 58.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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