ATL: FIONA - Advisories

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#21 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:19 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 69.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 69.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona




Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The center of the hurricane is moving off the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic near eastern Samana Bay. High-resolution
visible satellite imagery from the GOES-16 mesoscale sector show a
well-organized system, but the eye is currently cloud-filled. The
current intensity and central pressure, 75 kt and 980 mb, are based
on the assumption of some weakening and filling due to Fiona's
interaction with the land mass of eastern Hispaniola. An Air Force
Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the hurricane tonight, assuming that the cyclone will have moved
far enough offshore over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic.

Fiona is moving northwestward, or at about 310/7 kt. The system is
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area over the subtropical Atlantic. During the next 2-3
days, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the
north-northwest and north as it rounds the western side of the
high. Later in the forecast period, a large and strong trough
moving over the northeastern United States should cause Fiona to
accelerate northeastward and north-northeastward. The official
track forecast remains in agreement with the previous NHC solutions
and is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus predictions.

Moderate vertical shear associated with southwesterly upper-level
flow over Fiona is likely to prevail during the next few days.
However, this shear is not expected to be strong enough to offset
the favorable thermodynamics over the southwestern Atlantic. The
official forecast shows steady strengthening with Fiona becoming
a major hurricane within the next couple of days. This is in
line with the latest intensity model guidance and also similar to
the previous NHC forecasts.

As the hurricane accelerates deeper into the mid-latitudes and
begins interacting with the strong trough to its west, it is
expected to begin extratropical transition by day 5, although the
process will likely not be completed until after the end of the
forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue to produce life-
threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and
landslides across Puerto Rico through tonight. Life-threatening
flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the
Dominican Republic through early Tuesday.

2. Hurricane conditions are occuring across portions of the
Dominican Republic within the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions will continue on Puerto Rico through this afternoon and
over portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
through tonight.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen after moving away from Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected
in the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions
are expected in the southeastern Bahamas by late Monday or early
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.1N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.5N 70.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 22.9N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 24.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 26.0N 70.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 28.2N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 33.3N 65.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 45.0N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#22 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:21 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

Corrected maximum winds to 90 mph in discussion and outlook

...FIONA MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 69.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to
Barahona



BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 22...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

Corrected the Hurricane Watch breakpoints in Dominican Republic

...FIONA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 69.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra is
discontinued.

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Hurricane
Warning to a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances
Viejo, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Caucedo
to Barahona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo
westward to Puerto Plata
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The hurricane is beginning to move away from the Dominican Republic
and over the warm waters of the Atlantic north of Hispaniola.
Fiona's cloud pattern is well organized and its inner core is
becoming better defined with very cold cloud tops becoming
concentrated near the eye. Upper-level outflow is strong over most
of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 85 kt
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and assess its
structure and intensity.

Fiona continues to move northwestward, at a slightly faster forward
speed, or at about 325/9 kt. There is little change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous few advisory packages.
During the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to
gradually turn toward the north while moving along the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone. In 3-5 days,
Fiona should turn toward the north-northeast and accelerate in
response to a vigorous mid-tropospheric trough near the northeast
coast of the United States.

Global model forecasts continue to show moderate upper-level
west-southwesterly flow over Fiona while it moves over the
southwestern Atlantic early this week. Although this flow should
cause some shear over the hurricane during the next couple of
days, the intensity guidance models indicate that this shear will
not be strong enough to prevent further intensification. The
official intensity forecast has been increased a little more for
this advisory and is in good agreement with the latest LGEM
guidance. It now appears that Fiona will become a major hurricane
sooner than previously forecast.

Near the end of the forecast period, as the system becomes more
embedded within the mid-latitude flow and interacts with the
strong mid-tropospheric trough, it should be making the transition
into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. This is also suggested by
the latest FSU cyclone phases analyses.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the trailing bands of Fiona will continue
across Puerto Rico through this evening, and across the eastern
Dominican Republic through tonight. These rains could produce
life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and
landslides across Puerto Rico and eastern portions of the Dominican
Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.1N 69.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.8N 71.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 24.1N 71.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 25.7N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 27.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.9N 68.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.0N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
525 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Dominican
Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Puerto Plata. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#23 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:22 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 PM AST Mon Sep 19 2022

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND FIONA
STRENGTHENING...
...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 70.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

...CORE OF FIONA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE EASTERNMOST TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 70.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved
significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more
distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and
is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in
size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm
this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to
around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak
flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force
aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.
Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data
support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.

The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly
shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate
much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist
atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the
next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure,
the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate
of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the
upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows
Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the
hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement
cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the
24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to
interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start
the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to
be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to
remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast
philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast
cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a
strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The
track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico
and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight.
These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening
and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides
across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#24 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:25 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 70.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...CENTER OF CATEGORY THREE FIONA NEAR GRAND TURK ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 70.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported that the central pressure of Fiona had dropped to 967 mb,
and that the 700-mb flight-level winds were near 95 kt. In
addition, the aircraft also reported surface winds estimates from
the SFMR of 100-105 kt. The various satellite intensity estimates
are in the 100-115 kt range, and based on these data the initial
intensity was increased to 100 kt. This makes Fiona the first major
hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It should be noted
that since the aircraft left the storm, the eye has become less
distinct in satellite imagery. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona before 12Z to
see how much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred.

While Fiona has strengthened, satellite imagery continues to show
restricted outflow in the western semicircle, likely due to
continued southwesterly vertical wind shear. While some shear
should continue through 72 h, it appears it will not be strong
enough to prevent additional intensification, and Fiona is likely to
become a category 4 hurricane during this time. After 72 h, the
hurricane will interact with a powerful mid-latitude trough moving
into the Atlantic from the eastern United States. This should start
the process of extratropical transition by 96 h, with the transition
complete by the end of the forecast period. Fiona is expected to
remain intense through much of the transition, with the GFS, ECMWF,
and UKMET forecasting 85-95 kt winds and unusually low central
pressures at 96 h.

Fiona has moved northwestward during the past several hours, but a
longer-term motion is north-northwestward or 330/9 kt. There is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as during the next
48-60 h the hurricane should gradually turn north while moving
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that,
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as it
interacts with the aforementioned strong mid-latitude trough, with
a northward motion expected after the cyclone completes
extratropical transition. The track guidance, while remaining
tightly clustered, has shifted a little westward during the first
72 h, and this part of the new forecast track is nudged a little
westward as well.

Key Messages:

1. Outer bands from Fiona will continue to produce heavy rain over
mostly coastal and eastern sections of the Dominican Republic and in
local portions of southern Puerto Rico over the next 24 hours as
Fiona moves north-northwest over the southwest Atlantic Ocean. Heavy
rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding will continue
over portions of the Dominican Republic today. Heavy rains around
the center of Fiona will impact the Turks and Caicos through this
afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in the southern
portion of Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading over the Turks and Caicos
islands, while tropical storm conditions should spread over the
southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 21.3N 70.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 22.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 23.6N 71.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 25.1N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 27.1N 70.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 29.6N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 42.5N 60.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 50.5N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#25 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:26 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE FIONA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE FIONA CONTINUES TO BATTER THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 71.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Fiona has not changed much in organization on satellite images over
the past several hours, with the eye obscured on visible satellite
imagery. Upper-level outflow is still somewhat restricted over the
western semicircle of the system. A recent SSMIS microwave image
suggested that the hurricane may be undergoing an eyewall
replacement. Observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much
from earlier this morning. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
winds from the aircraft do not support an intensity higher than 100
kt, so the intensity is held at that value for this advisory. This
is also in agreement with Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and recent NOAA Synthetic Aperture Radar data.

Numerical guidance indicates that Fiona will continue to be
influenced by moderate west-southwesterly shear during the next
couple of days. However the models also indicate that the
thermodynamic environment will be conducive for intensification
over the next 48 hours, as Fiona passes through a moist air mass
and over warm SSTs of 28-29 deg. The official intensity forecast
continues to call for Fiona becoming a category 4 hurricane, in
agreement with the corrected consensus model guidance, HCCA.
Beyond 72 hours, the hurricane is expected to interact with a
vigorous mid-latitude trough moving into the Atlantic from the
northeastern United States. This should start the process of
extratropical transition by 96 hours, with the transition complete
by the end of the forecast period. Fiona is expected to remain a
deep and strong cyclone after extratropical transition.

Fiona continues to move north-northwestward, at about 330/8 kt.
The track guidance has changed very little from the previous
advisory. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system centered to its east. in 48-96 hours, Fiona is
expected to move north-northeastward to northeastward with
increasing forward speed along the southeast side of a strong
mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is similar to
the previous NHC prediction and in close agreement with the HCCA
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall and localized life-threatening flash flooding
should continue over portions of the Dominican Republic today.
Heavy rains should continue to impact the Turks and Caicos through
this afternoon with continued life-threatening flooding. Localized
additional flash and urban flooding is possible in Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane conditions are affecting portions of the Turks and
Caicos islands, while tropical storm conditions should affect
portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 22.0N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 23.0N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 24.4N 71.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 26.1N 71.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 28.3N 70.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 34.7N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 45.0N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 52.0N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#26 Postby AJC3 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:28 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA CONTINUES TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands



BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA STILL PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 71.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Deep convection around Fiona's eye is intense, but is in a rather
asymmetrical pattern at this time. Upper-tropospheric outflow
remains somewhat restricted over the western semicircle of the
system. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter fix in the
center of the hurricane around 17Z showed a slight fall of
central pressure from earlier in the day, but the flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds indicated that the maximum winds were
still near 100 kt. This is also in agreement with the latest
Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. Another Air Force
Hurricane Hunter mission into Fiona is scheduled for 00Z to see if
Fiona is strengthening again.

Vertical wind shear over Fiona, as diagnosed by the SHIPS model, is
predicted to remain moderate for the next few days. However, the
hurricane is likely to remain in a moist unstable air mass and over
a warm ocean for the next couple of days which is likely to offset
the influence of shear. In general, the intensity model guidance
continues to show strengthening for about the next 48 hours, and so
does the official forecast. Fiona is expected to become a category
4 hurricane in a day or so. By 96 hours, global model guidance
indicates that the system will be transformed into a vigorous
extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The hurricane is still headed toward the north-northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 330/7 kt. The track forecast scenario
is generally unchanged from the previous advisory. Fiona should
turn northward while moving along the western side of a mid-level
anticyclone during the next day or so. In 2-3 days, an intense
mid-tropospheric trough will be moving off the northeast United
States coast. This feature should cause Fiona to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and northeast during the latter part of the
forecast period. The official forecast follows about the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is just a tad slower. This is
in good agreement with both the simple and corrected consensus
predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains around the center of Fiona will continue to impact
the Turks and Caicos through this evening with continued
life-threatening flooding. Localized additional flash and urban
flooding is possible in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are affecting portions of the Turks and
Caicos islands, while tropical storm conditions should affect
portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

4. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 22.6N 71.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 23.6N 72.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.4N 70.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 32.4N 67.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 36.9N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 46.5N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 55.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2022 10:04 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...FIONA MOVING AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 71.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF NORTH CAICOS ISLAND
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings for the
Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this
system.



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been
investigating Fiona this evening show that the hurricane has
strengthened since this afternoon. The aircraft has measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt, and SFMR winds of around 110 kt
earlier in the evening. Based on those data, the intensity was
increased to 110 kt on the intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Since
that time, the satellite presentation has continued to improve with
the eye becoming better defined and the surrounding ring of deep
convection expanding with colder cloud top temperatures. The
pressure has fallen a few more millibars and is now down to 947 mb,
however the plane has not found any higher winds during several
passes through the northeastern and northern portion of the eyewall.
It is worth noting that the latest subjective and objective
satellite estimates suggest a stronger intensity, and this may be a
case in which the winds are lagging the improved satellite
presentation, which is not too uncommon.

The vertical wind shear over the hurricane is expected to remain low
to moderate during the next couple of days. During that time, the
hurricane will be traversing SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius, and
remain in a moist environment. These conditions should allow for
some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but
after that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity. By day 3, the
system is forecast to interact with a vigorous mid-troposphere
trough and the system is expected to become a large and powerful
extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada.

The latest satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane
is now moving just west of due north or 350/7 kt. Fiona should move
generally northward around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is
forecast to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually
accelerate as the aforementioned trough approaches from the
northwest. Very little cross-track changes were made to the latest
NHC forecast, but it is slightly slower than the previous advisory
to be in better agreement with the bulk of the dynamical models.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and
Caicos through tonight with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 23.2N 71.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 24.3N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 26.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 69.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 34.3N 65.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 39.5N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 48.3N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0000Z 55.4N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:34 am

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently
reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt, and reliable surface
winds estimates from the SFMR of 115 kt. The central pressure
inside the 25 n mi wide eye has fallen to 939 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt, making Fiona a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since
the last advisory. The vertical wind shear over Fiona is expected
to remain low to moderate during the next couple of days. During
that time, the hurricane will be traversing warm sea surface
temperatures and remain in a moist environment. These conditions
should allow for some additional strengthening during the next 12
to 24 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak
intensity of 120 kt during that time. After that time, difficult-
to-predict eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some
fluctuations in intensity. Starting near 72 h, Fiona is expected
to
interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough, which should lead to
transition into an intense extratropical low between 72-96 h.
After 96 h, the system is expected to weaken.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Fiona should move generally
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during
the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast
to turn north-northeastward and begin to gradually accelerate as
the aforementioned trough approaches from the northwest. There
were no no significant changes to the guidance from the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains south of Fiona will continue to impact the Turks and
Caicos through this morning with additional flooding possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by late
Thursday.

3. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 23.9N 71.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 25.0N 71.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 26.9N 71.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 32.3N 67.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 42.0N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 50.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/0600Z 56.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:58 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FIONA HEADED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 71.7W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda




WTNT42 KNHC 211455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Fiona has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a
well-defined 20-n mi diameter eye embedded within very cold cloud
tops. The hurricane has a large Central Dense Overcast with
surrounding banding features, especially over the northeastern
quadrant. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern
and eastern portions of the system. The current intensity estimate
is kept at 115 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate
from SAB.

During the next couple of days, Fiona will continue to traverse
warm ocean waters and remain within a moist air mass. Therefore
some additional strengthening could occur. Fluctuations in
intensity are also possible due to eyewall replacements, but these
are difficult to time. In 60-72 hours, Fiona is expected to
interact with a vigorous mid-latitude trough near the northeastern
United States coast, which should lead to its transition into an
intense extratropical cyclone by 72 hours.

The hurricane continues to move northward, or at about 360/7 kt.
Fiona is likely to move northward to north-northeastward along the
western side of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone during the next
12-24 hours. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward along
the eastern side of the above mentioned trough. The new official
forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and is very
close to both the corrected and simple dynamical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions
are expected, on Bermuda by late Thursday.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 24.6N 71.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 25.8N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 28.0N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 34.4N 65.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 39.7N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 45.3N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1200Z 51.5N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1200Z 58.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:04 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...LARGE HURRICANE FIONA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATE
TOMORROW AND EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 71.5W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1385 MI...2225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Fiona continues to have a fairly impressive presentation on
satellite images, although the eye has become partially cloud-
filled. The central convection continues to have very cold cloud
tops to near -80 deg C, and the Central Dense Overcast is
surrounded by numerous banding features, especially over the
eastern semicircle. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the
northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The current
intensity is held at 115 kt, i.e. Category 4, in agreement with a
subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB.

The hurricane should remain over warm waters for the next 48 hours,
and in a moist and unstable air mass. Some strengthening is still
possible within the next day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some intensity fluctuations, but these are difficult to
predict. Fiona is expected to interact with a strong
mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeastern United States
coast in around 60 hours. This interaction should lead to the
system transforming into an intense extratropical cyclone, with
hurricane-force winds, before it reaches Atlantic Canada.

Fiona's motion is beginning to show signs of a turn toward the
north-northeast as the eye has been leaning toward the right
over the past few hours. The initial motion is just east of
north or about 010/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast or its reasoning. During the next 12 to 24
hours, the hurricane is expected to move northward to
north-northeastward along the western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical high pressure area. Thereafter, Fiona is forecast to
gradually accelerate northeastward to north-northeastward in
the flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The official track
forecast remains close to both the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA, respectively.

Based on an earlier ASCAT overpass, the wind radii have been
expanded. The model guidance indicates that Fiona will grow even
larger in size during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible, and tropical storm conditions
are expected, on Bermuda by late tomorrow.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could
produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 25.6N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 27.0N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 29.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 32.6N 66.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 43.5N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 52.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z 60.0N 59.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:01 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...FIONA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

Fiona is showing signs of slow decay in satellite imagery, with the
eye gradually becoming cloud filled and the eyewall convection
becoming more ragged. However, this has not yet led to a
significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates, which
range from 100-130 kt. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt
pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, but this could be a little generous.

The hurricane has turned north-northeastward during the past several
hours with the initial motion now 025/11 kt. Fiona is expected to
accelerate in a generally north-northeasterly direction for the next
24 h or so as it is steered along the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should take the center
northwest of Bermuda in 24-30 h. After that time, an even faster
motion is forecast as the hurricane interacts with a powerful
deep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic from the northeastern
United States. This interaction should steer the cyclone toward
Atlantic Canada later Friday and Friday night. After 48 h, a
northward motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected, with the
center moving near or over, eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, and portions of Newfoundland and Labrador into the
Labrador Sea by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new NHC track forecast is again mainly an
update of the previous prediction.

Little change, or perhaps a slow decrease in intensity is expected
during the next 24 h or so while Fiona remains over warm waters of
29-30 degrees Celsius and in a generally low-shear environment.
After that, interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough
should begin the process of extratropical transition, which should
complete between 48-60 h as the center of Fiona approaches Nova
Scotia. The extratropical low is forecast to continue producing
hurricane-force winds as it crosses Nova Scotia and moves into the
Gulf of St. Lawrence through 60 h, and it is expected to continue
producing gale-force winds as it moves across Newfoundland and
Labrador until near the end of the forecast period. There is little
change in the intensity guidance from the previous advisory, and
there are only minor changes in the intensity forecast.

The wind radii were modified based on a combination of
scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the
island.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are becoming increasingly likely. Interests in these
areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to
the forecast.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause dangerous
and possibly life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along
the east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 27.4N 70.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.3N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.5N 66.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 37.4N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 43.0N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 46.7N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 49.7N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z 57.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 62.5N 58.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...LARGE AND POWERFUL FIONA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 70.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane is not quite as
impressive as yesterday. The large eye has become cloud filled and
the surrounding cloud top temperatures are not quite as cold. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has very recently reported a
peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt in the southeastern eyewall.
The peak SFMR winds have been 107 kt and latest minimum central
pressure is around 936 mb. These data support maintaining the
initial intensity of 115 kt. A NOAA Saildrone located about 45 n mi
east of the center has recently reported sustained winds of 67 kt
and a significant wave height of 50 ft.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 025/13 kt. Additional acceleration is
expected while Fiona moves north-northeastward along the southern
edge of the mid-latitude westerlies through tonight. On Friday, a
vigorous mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the
northeastern U.S. is expected to steer Fiona northward toward
Atlantic Canada. The storm is forecast to pass over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and a slower northward or
north-northeastward motion over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
portions of Newfoundland and Labrador is expected after that time.
The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and the new
official forecast is once again essentially an update of the
previous one.

Only a slight decrease in intensity is predicted over the next 12-24
hours while Fiona remains over warm waters and in a low-shear
environment. By 36 hours, interaction with the aforementioned trough
will begin extratropical transition, and this process is forecast to
be complete by 48 hours when the system is near Nova Scotia. The
global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone will
continue to produce hurricane-force winds when it reaches Nova
Scotia. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the global model guidance during the
post-tropical phase.

Based on the latest forecast the Canadian Hurricane Centre has
issued Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches for much of Atlantic
Canada.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Watches have been issued for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 28.6N 70.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 30.7N 68.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 34.6N 65.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 40.6N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 45.5N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 48.1N 60.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z 51.8N 59.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1200Z 58.9N 58.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z 64.2N 57.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON BERMUDA AS FIONA APPROACHES...
...RISK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WIND, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING FOR ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

The satellite presentation of Fiona has recovered somewhat since
this morning with the eye becoming a little better defined, and
a ring of convection with cloud tops of -65 to-70 degrees
surrounding the center. There is a fairly large spread in the
subjective and objective satellite estimates, which range from
102 kt to 124 kt. The initial wind speed remains near the mid
point of estimates at 115 kt, which was supported by the earlier
aircraft reconnaissance data. The next reconnaissance flight is
scheduled into the hurricane this evening.

The hurricane continues to accelerate north-northeastward with an
initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Fiona is
forecast to continue to accelerate north-northeastward tonight,
with the hurricane making its closest approach to Bermuda overnight
or early tomorrow. On Friday, a vigorous mid-latitude trough that
is forecast to move off the coast of the northeastern United States
should cause Fiona to turn northward toward Atlantic Canada. The
dynamic models are in good agreement that the cyclone will pass
over portions of eastern Nova Scotia by Saturday morning, and then
move more slowly northward over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and
portions of Newfoundland and Labrador over the weekend. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast lies
near the center of the model envelope.

Fiona is expected to remain in a low shear environment and over warm
water for the next 12-24 hours. Therefore, little change in
intensity is expected during that time. After 24 hours, the system
will interact with the aforementioned trough, and Fiona is forecast
to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds Friday night. Gradual weakening is predicted
later in the weekend while the system moves northward over
Newfoundland and Labrador.

The cyclone is forecast to grow in size as it approaches Atlantic
Canada, and earlier ASCAT data showed that the tropical-storm-force
winds have already expanded over the eastern portion of the storm.
The initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight through
Friday morning.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are becoming increasingly likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Watches are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 30.4N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 32.8N 67.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 37.8N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 43.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 47.3N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 50.4N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z 53.9N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 60.9N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z 64.3N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ON BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has upgraded all Hurricane Watches to
Hurricane Warnings, and all Tropical Storm Watches to Tropical
Storm Warnings, with a few additional modifications.



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 22 2022

Fiona's satellite appearance looks a little more asymmetric this
evening, with deep convection and upper-level outflow becoming more
restricted on the western side. That said, the hurricane has not
yet lost any intensity. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 123 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 110 kt, which support maintaining a 115-kt
intensity on this advisory. In addition, dropsonde data indicate
that the central pressure has fallen further to 932 mb, and the
SFMR instrument measured hurricane-force winds now extending 100 n
mi to the southeast of the center.

The hurricane is still accelerating toward the north-northeast with
an initial motion estimate of 030/18 kt. Fiona is getting closer
to a deep-layer trough currently located over the northeastern
United States, and this feature is expected to cause the hurricane
to speed up further during the next day or so, reaching peak speeds
of 30-35 kt by 24 hours as it approaches Nova Scotia. Fiona should
merge with the trough soon after 24 hours, slow down a bit, but
continue moving northward across Atlantic Canada to the Labrador
Sea. The previous official forecast appears on track based on the
latest guidance, and no significant changes were made to the new
forecast.

Fiona is forecast to remain over warm waters, including within the
Gulf Stream current, during the next 24 hours, although deep-layer
shear is forecast to increase substantially in 12-24 hours. Given
the hurricane's current appearance, some gradual weakening is
anticipated during the next day or so. Extratropical transition
should begin on Friday, and that process is expected to be quick,
with Fiona becoming a warm-seclusion-type extratropical low Friday
night before the center reaches Nova Scotia. Although continued
weakening is forecast thereafter, Fiona is expected to maintain
hurricane-force winds through 48 hours while it moves across the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. Winds could drop below gale force by day 5
when the post-tropical low is over the Labrador Sea. After 24
hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
global model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight.
Conditions should diminish below tropical storm force during the
day on Friday.

2. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are likely. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have now been
issued for much of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 31.9N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 34.8N 65.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 40.9N 61.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 45.8N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z 48.7N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1200Z 52.2N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0000Z 56.2N 57.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0000Z 62.0N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0000Z 64.8N 56.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:52 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 66.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:02 am


BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT RACES TOWARD
ATLANTIC CANADA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 64.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is pulling away from Bermuda and racing toward Atlantic
Canada. Although the core of Fiona missed Bermuda, the Bermuda
Weather Service reported that there were wind gusts up to 100 kt on
the island early this morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the major hurricane and have found that it
remains powerful and very large. The maximum flight-level wind at
700 mb was 144 kt in the southeast quadrant and the peak SFMR wind
was 109 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged up
to 115 kt, which makes Fiona a very dangerous category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Satellite images show
that Fiona still has a relatively well-defined eye and deep
convection over the eastern portion of the circulation, but dry air
and westerly vertical wind shear are beginning to affect the system.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Fiona is moving very
quickly to the northeast at about 30 kt. The hurricane is expected
to turn slightly to the left and slow down as it interacts and
merges with a nearby mid- to upper-level trough. The center of
Fiona is expected to make landfall in Atlantic Canada late tonight
or early Saturday, but wind, rain, and surge impacts will begin
well before that time given the large size of the hurricane. The
models suggest that Fiona will slow down significantly, but
continue a generally northward motion through the weekend and into
early next week. The NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Although Fiona is expected to begin weakening soon given the
increasing shear and dry air entrainment, there is high confidence
that Fiona will be a powerful cyclone when it moves across Atlantic
Canada. The system is forecast to complete extratropical
transition when it merges with the trough just before or around the
time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with
the IVCN and HCCA models after that.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.

2. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue for a few
more hours in Bermuda.

3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic
Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 35.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 40.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 45.5N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 48.4N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 51.5N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z 55.2N 57.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 58.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z 61.6N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Snell

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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:01 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fiona Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

...POWERFUL FIONA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO
ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 61.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES



Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Fiona is beginning to take on the appearance of an extratropical
cyclone. The cloud pattern is becoming more elongated and
asymmetrical, with cooler-air stratocumulus clouds near the western
semicircle of the cyclone. The eye became obscured a few hours ago
and, assuming gradual weakening since the last Hurricane Hunter
aircraft mission into the system, the current intensity is set at
110 kt.

Satellite center fixes indicate that Fiona has been moving very
rapidly toward the north-northeast, or about 030/35 kt. The
numerical guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will slow
its forward speed during the next few days while it interacts with
a mid- to upper-level trough. The center of Fiona is expected to
make landfall in Atlantic Canada by Saturday morning, but wind,
rain, and surge impacts will begin well before that time given the
large size of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast is mainly a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions, and similar to
the previous official track prediction.

Fiona is expected to slowly weaken during the next few days due to
increasing shear and dry air entrainment. In 12 hours, the
system should become embedded within a baroclinic zone, and
be transformed into an extratropical cyclone. This is also
indicated by simulated infrared satellite imagery from the global
models. However, there is high confidence that Fiona will remain a
powerful cyclone, with hurricane-force winds, when it moves across
Atlantic Canada. The system should wind down into a gale center by
the time it reaches the southeastern Labrador Sea. The official
forecast is near the high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone tonight and Saturday, and
significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for much of Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 39.6N 61.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 44.0N 60.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1800Z 47.2N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1800Z 54.5N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0600Z 58.5N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1800Z 60.0N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:55 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 23 2022

Satellite images and observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Fiona is now an intense
extratropical cyclone. The system's appearance has evolved into
a comma-shaped cloud pattern with a frontal band extending well to
the south and southwest. Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the radius of maximum winds is on the order of 100 miles or
more. Although the minimum central pressure is a very low 933 mb,
the maximum winds have decreased to near 90 kt.

The cyclone has been moving very rapidly northward or around 360/40
kt on the eastern side of a deep-layer trough. Fiona should slow
its forward speed while it interacts with the trough during the
next couple of days. The official track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the west of the previous one for the next 12-24 hours,
and is on the western side of the track model suite. Fiona's
center should move over eastern Nova Scotia shortly, and then
traverse the eastern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, eastern Labrador and
move over the southeastern Labrador Sea. It should be repeated
that strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges are occurring well
away from the center.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of day, and
Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in 24 hours or
so. The system should wind down to a marginal gale center after
moving into the southeastern Labrador Sea, and the global models
indicate that the system should dissipate to the west of Greenland
in about 4 days. The official intensity forecast remains on the
high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone overnight, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 44.5N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 24/1200Z 47.5N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 51.2N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z 54.6N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0000Z 58.0N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1200Z 60.6N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z 63.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:15 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NOW CROSSING EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

Around 07Z, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona made landfall
on the Canso Peninsula of Nova Scotia near Hart Island and
Guysborough. Surface observations indicate that the minimum
pressure at landfall was near 931 mb. The initial intensity is
decreased to a somewhat uncertain 80 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data, with these winds occurring primarily to the
east and southeast of the center.

Fiona is starting to slow its forward motion, with the initial
motion now 360/23 kt. A general northward to north-northeastward
motion with some additional decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 60 h. A subsequent northeastward motion is then
forecast until the cyclone dissipates just after 72 h. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies a
little west of the previous track at 24-36 h. The new forecast
track is close to the various consensus models.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days,
and Fiona's winds should drop below hurricane strength in just over
12 h. After that, winds should decrease below gale force by 72 h
while the system is over the Labrador Sea. The new intensity
forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and lies on
the upper edge of the guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a
powerful hurricane-force cyclone today, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along much of the
east coast of the United States, the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 46.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1800Z 48.7N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0600Z 52.2N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1800Z 56.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0600Z 59.4N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1800Z 61.9N 58.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z 64.1N 57.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: FIONA - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:15 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
800 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022

...CENTER OF FIONA NOW OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.3N 61.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...340 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
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