ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:34 am

AL, 97, 2022091900, , BEST, 0, 278N, 460W, 25, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#2 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:40 am

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite wind data from earlier tonight indicated an area of low
pressure has formed over the central subtropical Atlantic, and it is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. There is a short
window for this system to develop further over the next day or two
before environmental conditions become less favorable later this
week. The system should move generally northward or northeastward
while remaining over the open central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby Landy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 12:43 am

LLC is closed. This went under the radar lol

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#4 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 19, 2022 11:24 am

Image

Well defined LLC with some convection. I'd go 80% and with any increase in convection we'd see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:36 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:49 pm

If this can generate better convection near the center, I could see this potentially becoming Gaston. Shouldn't be able to do much overall, but I'd say a quick TS isn't out of the question.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:25 pm

Image

Quite close to becoming a tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby kevin » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:33 pm

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly this evening
in association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic. Some slow development is possible during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form during
that time before environmental conditions become less conducive
later this week. The system should generally move northward or
northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:49 pm

Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:50 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine. :D

And then imagine Hermine 2022 making landfall in the same area as Hermine 2016 did.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby zal0phus » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:53 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine. :D

And then imagine Hermine 2022 making landfall in the same area as Hermine 2016 did.

Dark Hermine
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby tomatkins » Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Imagine this system stealing Gaston's name and forcing the Caribbean system to be Hermine. :D

Given that the Caribbean one looks like it could be a bad one, I'll assume this gets Gaston, then another one dayer pops up and takes Hermine so that the Caribbean storm ends up with the always fearsome I name.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 19, 2022 9:13 pm

If we get another I, I will not be surprised. But, Hermine wants her turn, and I am afraid she is gonna get it. Invest 97l becomes Gaston IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:30 am

Model agreement on development

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#15 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:53 am

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in
association with an area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week. The system should generally
move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters
of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 20, 2022 1:49 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:05 am

This is a loop taken about 08:30 using GOES-16 CIRA Airmas to get a better look at what's going on. It looks to have some convection but the shear is pushing it north of the lower circulation, it's is now getting a mix of cold air to the north of it and dry air to the west of it not a good combo to have.

Source - https://col.st/BbO5j

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#18 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:09 am

The last several HWRF runs have intensified this to somewhere in between a mid-grade TS or a low end hurricane. Seems like there’s a good chance this steals the name Gaston from future 98L in the next 24-48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Sep 20, 2022 6:46 am

80%

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located over
the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds
become less conducive later this week. The system should move
generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open
waters of central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:02 am

It’s clearly under some shear at the moment, but this has been producing sustained convection over a closed low-level center for a while now. Looks to be a TC already and I’m betting it gets classified at 11.
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